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  Xiaoice

  Xiaoice (Chinese: 微软小冰; pinyin: Wēiruǎn Xiǎobīng; lit. 'Microsoft Little Ice', IPA [wéɪɻwânɕjâʊpíŋ]) is an AI system developed by Microsoft (Asia) Software Technology Center (STCA) in 2014 based on an emotional computing framework. In July 2018, Microsoft Xiaoice released the 6th generation. Xiaoice Company, formerly known as AI Xiaoice Team of Microsoft Software Technology Center Asia, was Microsoft's largest independent R&D team for AI products. Founded in China in December 2013 with an expanded Japanese R&D team established in September 2014, this team is distributed in Beijing, Suzhou, and Tokyo, etc. with its technical products covering Asia. On 13 July 2020, Microsoft spun off its Xiaoice business into a separate company. As of 2021, the AI chatbots created and hosted by the Xiaoice framework accounted for about 60% of total global AI interactions. == Platforms, languages and countries == Xiaoice exists on more than 40 platforms in four countries (China, Japan, USA and Indonesia) including apps such as WeChat, QQ, Weibo and Meipai in China, and Facebook Messenger in USA and LINE in Japan. == Introduction == On 13 July 2020, Microsoft spun off its Xiaoice business into a separate company, aiming at enabling the Xiaoice product line to accelerate the pace of local innovation and commercialization, and appointed Dr. Harry Shum, former global executive VP of Microsoft, as the chairman of the new company, Li Di, Microsoft Partner of Products in Microsoft STCA, as the CEO, and Cliff, Chief R&D Director, as the GM of the Japan branch. The new company will continue to use the brands of Xiaoice China and Rinna Japan. As of 2022, the single brand of Xiaoice has covered 660 million online users, 1 billion third-party smart devices and 900 million content viewers in the aforementioned countries. Xiaoice's customers include China Merchants Group, Winter Sports Center of the General Administration of Sport of China, China Textile Information Center, China Unicom, China Foreign Exchange Trade System, Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), Wind Information, BMW, Nissan, SAIC Motor, BAIC Group, Nio Inc., XPeng, HiPhi, Vanke, Wensli, etc. The Xiaoice Avatar Framework has incubated tens of millions of AI Beings, such as Xiaoice, Rinna, the Expo exhibitor Xia Yubing, the singer He Chang, the anchor F201, the human observer MERROR, anime robot character Roboko, and other; == Application == === Poet === In May 2017, the first AI-authored collection of poems in China—The Sunshine Lost Windows was published by Xiaoice. === Singer === Xiaoice has released dozens of songs with the similar quality to human singers, including I Know I New, Breeze, I Am Xiaoice, Miss You etc. The 4th version of the DNN singing model allows Xiaoice to learn more details. For example, Xiaoice can produce this breathing sound along with her singing as human. === Kid audio-books reciter === Xiaoice can automatically analyze the stories, to choose the suitable tones and characters to finish the entire process of creating the audio. === Designer === By learning the melodies of the songs and the landmarks about different cities, Xiaoice can create visual artworks of skylines when listening to the songs related to this city. Skyline Series T-shirts designed by Xiaoice have been jointly launched with SELECTED and been sold in stores. === TV and radio hostess === Xiaoice has hosted 21 TV programs and 28 Radio programs, such as CCTV-1 AI Show, Dragon TV Morning East News, Hunan TV My Future, several daily radio programs for Jiangsu FM99.7, Hunan FM89.3, Henan FM104.1 etc. === "AI being" === An "AI being" is a concept proposed by the Xiaoice team in 2019. According to the "White Book of China Virtual Human Development Industry in 2022" released by Frost & Sullivan and LeadLeo, the white paper cites six elements of an AI being proposed by the Xiaoice team, including: Persona, Attitude, Biological Characteristic, Creation, Knowledge and Skill. On May 16, 2023, Xiaoice released their "GPT Clones" as its "GPT Human Cloning Plan." The program is aimed at replicating celebrities, public figures, and regular people. As of June 2023, Xiaoice had launched more than 300 "GPT Clones." People were invited to register via WeChat in China and Japan. A major point of focus for Xiaoice with their AI Beings is having virtual partners. A paid fee allow for more complex responses, voice messages, and more. == Community feedback == Bill Gates mentioned Xiaoice during his speech at the Peking University: "Some of you may have had conversations with Xiaoice on Weibo, or seen her weather forecasts on TV, or read her column in the Qianjiang Evening News." '"Xiaoice has attracted 45 million followers and is quite skilled at multitasking. And I’ve heard she’s gotten good enough at sensing a user’s emotional state that she can even help with relationship breakups." According to Mr Li Di, vice President of Microsoft (Asia) Internet Engineering School, Xiaoice started writing poems since last year. Based on the data base that includes works of 519 Chinese contemporary poets since 1920s, a 100 hour long training session was conducted to allow Xiaoice to acquire the ability to write poems. What is more impressive is that Xiaoice has never been spotted as a bot while publishing poems on various forums and traditional literary under an alias. == Controversy == In 2017, Xiaoice was taken offline on WeChat after giving user responses critical to the Chinese government. It was subsequently censored and the bots will avoid and sidestep any inquiries using politically sensitive terms and phrases. == Activity == On September 22, 2021, Xiaoice Company and Microsoft Software Technology Center Asia (STCA) jointly held the 9th generation Xiaoice annual press conference in Beijing.Upgrading of Core Technologies of the 9th Generation Xiaoice Avatar Framework，1st First-party Social Platform APP "Xiaoice Island" from Xiaoice, WeChat Xiaoice has been reopened and other information == Regional varieties of Xiaoice == China: Xiaoice, launched in 2014 Japan: りんな, launched in 2015 America: Zo, launched in 2016 – discontinued summer 2019 India: Ruuh, launched in 2017 – discontinued June 21, 2019 Indonesia: Rinna, launched in 2017

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  Random neural network

  The Random Neural Network (RNN) is a mathematical representation of an interconnected network of neurons or cells which exchange spiking signals. It was invented by Erol Gelenbe and is linked to the G-network model of queueing networks which Erol Gelenbe also invented, and with his Gene Regulatory Network models. In this model, each neuronal cell state is represented by an integer whose value rises when the cell receives an excitatory spike and drops when it receives an inhibitory spike. The spikes can originate outside the network itself, or they can come from other cells in the networks. Cells whose internal excitatory state has a positive value are allowed to send out spikes of either kind to other cells in the network according to specific cell-dependent spiking rates. The model has a mathematical solution in steady-state which provides the joint probability distribution of the network in terms of the individual probabilities that each cell is excited and able to send out spikes. Computing this solution is based on solving a set of non-linear algebraic equations whose parameters are related to the spiking rates of individual cells and their connectivity to other cells, as well as the arrival rates of spikes from outside the network. The RNN is a recurrent model, i.e. a neural network that is allowed to have complex feedback loops. A highly energy-efficient implementation of random neural networks was demonstrated by Krishna Palem et al. using the Probabilistic CMOS or PCMOS technology and was shown to be c. 226–300 times more efficient in terms of Energy-Performance-Product. RNNs are also related to artificial neural networks, which (like the random neural network) have gradient-based learning algorithms. The learning algorithm for an n-node random neural network that includes feedback loops (it is also a recurrent neural network) is of computational complexity O(n^3) (the number of computations is proportional to the cube of n, the number of neurons). The random neural network can also be used with other learning algorithms such as reinforcement learning. The RNN has been shown to be a universal approximator for bounded and continuous functions.

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  Ho–Kashyap algorithm

  The Ho–Kashyap algorithm is an iterative method in machine learning for finding a linear decision boundary that separates two linearly separable classes. It was developed by Yu-Chi Ho and Rangasami L. Kashyap in 1965, and usually presented as a problem in linear programming. == Setup == Given a training set consisting of samples from two classes, the Ho–Kashyap algorithm seeks to find a weight vector w {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} } and a margin vector b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } such that: Y w = b {\displaystyle \mathbf {Yw} =\mathbf {b} } where Y {\displaystyle \mathbf {Y} } is the augmented data matrix with samples from both classes (with appropriate sign conventions, e.g., samples from class 2 are negated), w {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} } is the weight vector to be determined, and b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } is a positive margin vector. The algorithm minimizes the criterion function: J ( w , b ) = | | Y w − b | | 2 {\displaystyle J(\mathbf {w} ,\mathbf {b} )=||\mathbf {Yw} -\mathbf {b} ||^{2}} subject to the constraint that b > 0 {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} >\mathbf {0} } (element-wise). Given a problem of linearly separating two classes, we consider a dataset of elements { ( x i , y i ) } i ∈ 1 : N {\displaystyle \{(\mathbf {x_{i}} ,y_{i})\}_{i\in 1:N}} where y i ∈ { − 1 , + 1 } {\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{-1,+1\}} . Linearly separating them by a perceptron is equivalent to finding weight and bias w , b {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} ,b} for a perceptron, such that: [ y 1 x 1 1 ⋮ ⋮ y N x N 1 ] [ w b ] > 0 {\displaystyle {\begin{bmatrix}y_{1}\mathbf {x} _{1}&1\\\vdots &\vdots \\y_{N}\mathbf {x} _{N}&1\\\end{bmatrix}}{\begin{bmatrix}\mathbf {w} \\b\end{bmatrix}}>0} == Algorithm == The idea of the Ho–Kashyap algorithm is as follows: Given any b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } , the corresponding w {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} } is known: It is simply w = Y + b {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} =\mathbf {Y} ^{+}\mathbf {b} } , where Y + {\displaystyle \mathbf {Y} ^{+}} denotes the Moore–Penrose pseudoinverse of Y {\displaystyle \mathbf {Y} } . Therefore, it only remains to find b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } by gradient descent. However, the gradient descent may sometimes decrease some of the coordinates of b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } , which may cause some coordinates of b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } to become negative, which is undesirable. Therefore, whenever some coordinates of b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } would have decreased, those coordinates are unchanged instead. As for the coordinates of b {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} } that would increase, those would increase without issue. Formally, the algorithm is as follows: Initialization: Set b ( 0 ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} (0)} to an arbitrary positive vector, typically b ( 0 ) = 1 {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} (0)=\mathbf {1} } (a vector of ones). Set the iteration counter k = 0 {\displaystyle k=0} . Set w ( 0 ) = Y + b ( 0 ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} (0)=\mathbf {Y} ^{+}\mathbf {b} (0)} Loop until convergence, or until iteration counter exceeds some k m a x {\displaystyle k_{max}} . Error calculation: Compute the error vector: e ( k ) = Y w ( k ) − b ( k ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {e} (k)=\mathbf {Yw} (k)-\mathbf {b} (k)} . Margin update: Update the margin vector: b ( k + 1 ) = b ( k ) + 2 η k ( e ( k ) + | e ( k ) | ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} (k+1)=\mathbf {b} (k)+2\eta _{k}(\mathbf {e} (k)+|\mathbf {e} (k)|)} where η k {\displaystyle \eta _{k}} is a positive learning rate parameter, and | e ( k ) | {\displaystyle |\mathbf {e} (k)|} denotes the element-wise absolute value. Weight calculation: Compute the weight vector using the pseudoinverse: w ( k + 1 ) = Y + b ( k + 1 ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} (k+1)=\mathbf {Y} ^{+}\mathbf {b} (k+1)} . Convergence check: If | | e ( k ) | | ≤ θ {\displaystyle ||\mathbf {e} (k)||\leq \theta } for some predetermined threshold θ {\displaystyle \theta } (close to zero), then return b ( k + 1 ) , w ( k + 1 ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} (k+1),\mathbf {w} (k+1)} . if e ( k ) ≤ 0 {\displaystyle \mathbf {e} (k)\leq \mathbf {0} } (all components non-positive), return "Samples not separable.". Return "Algorithm failed to converge in time.". == Properties == If the training data is linearly separable, the algorithm converges to a solution (where e ( k ) = 0 {\displaystyle \mathbf {e} (k)=\mathbf {0} } ) in a finite number of iterations. If the data is not linearly separable, the algorithm may or may not ever reach the point where e ( k ) = 0 {\displaystyle \mathbf {e} (k)=\mathbf {0} } . However, if it does happen that e ( k ) ≤ 0 {\displaystyle \mathbf {e} (k)\leq \mathbf {0} } at some iteration, this proves non-separability. The convergence rate depends on the choice of the learning rate parameter ρ {\displaystyle \rho } and the degree of linear separability of the data. == Relationship to other algorithms == Perceptron algorithm: Both seek linear separators. The perceptron updates weights incrementally based on individual misclassified samples, while Ho–Kashyap is a batch method that processes all samples to compute the pseudoinverse and updates based on an overall error vector. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA): LDA assumes underlying Gaussian distributions with equal covariances for the classes and derives the decision boundary from these statistical assumptions. Ho–Kashyap makes no explicit distributional assumptions and instead tries to solve a system of linear inequalities directly. Support vector machines (SVM): For linearly separable data, SVMs aim to find the maximum-margin hyperplane. The Ho–Kashyap algorithm finds a separating hyperplane but not necessarily the one with the maximum margin. If the data is not separable, soft-margin SVMs allow for some misclassifications by optimizing a trade-off between margin size and misclassification penalty, while Ho–Kashyap provides a least-squares solution. == Variants == Modified Ho–Kashyap algorithm changes weight calculation step w ( k + 1 ) = Y + b ( k + 1 ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} (k+1)=\mathbf {Y} ^{+}\mathbf {b} (k+1)} to w ( k + 1 ) = w ( k ) + η k Y + | e ( k ) | {\displaystyle \mathbf {w} (k+1)=\mathbf {w} (k)+\eta _{k}\mathbf {Y} ^{+}|\mathbf {e} (k)|} . Kernel Ho–Kashyap algorithm: Applies kernel methods (the "kernel trick") to the Ho–Kashyap framework to enable non-linear classification by implicitly mapping data to a higher-dimensional feature space.

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  Generalized iterative scaling

  In statistics, generalized iterative scaling (GIS) and improved iterative scaling (IIS) are two early algorithms used to fit log-linear models, notably multinomial logistic regression (MaxEnt) classifiers and extensions of it such as MaxEnt Markov models and conditional random fields. These algorithms have been largely surpassed by gradient-based methods such as L-BFGS and coordinate descent algorithms.

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  TimeTiger

  TimeTiger is a time and project tracking app developed by Indigo Technologies Ltd. in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Indigo was founded in 1997 and initially released TimeTiger in 1998. == Company == The company was incorporated in 1997 and began operations as a custom software developer. TimeTiger (internally called TaskMaster) was developed as a tool to help with Indigo's own project planning and estimating. After releasing TimeTiger as a commercial product in 1998, Indigo shifted its focus to time and project management solutions. TimeTiger first introduced support for web-based time logging in 2000, to appeal to workers who were not already tracking their time for billing reasons. Subsequent development emphasized project analysis tools. == Features == Web-based electronic time log "To Do" list to monitor project and non-project activities Pivot table report designer Role-based access control == Software integration == Reports can be exported to Microsoft Excel or saved as Excel-compatible HTML files. Microsoft Project files can be imported and exported. A Software Development Kit is available.

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  Margin classifier

  In machine learning (ML), a margin classifier is a type of classification model which is able to give an associated distance from the decision boundary for each data sample. For instance, if a linear classifier is used, the distance (typically Euclidean, though others may be used) of a sample from the separating hyperplane is the margin of that sample. The notion of margins is important in several ML classification algorithms, as it can be used to bound the generalization error of these classifiers. These bounds are frequently shown using the VC dimension. The generalization error bound in boosting algorithms and support vector machines is particularly prominent. == Margin for boosting algorithms == The margin for an iterative boosting algorithm given a dataset with two classes can be defined as follows: the classifier is given a sample pair ( x , y ) {\displaystyle (x,y)} , where x ∈ X {\displaystyle x\in X} is a domain space and y ∈ Y = { − 1 , + 1 } {\displaystyle y\in Y=\{-1,+1\}} is the sample's label. The algorithm then selects a classifier h j ∈ C {\displaystyle h_{j}\in C} at each iteration j {\displaystyle j} where C {\displaystyle C} is a space of possible classifiers that predict real values. This hypothesis is then weighted by α j ∈ R {\displaystyle \alpha _{j}\in R} as selected by the boosting algorithm. At iteration t {\displaystyle t} , the margin of a sample x {\displaystyle x} can thus be defined as y ∑ j t α j h j ( x ) ∑ | α j | . {\displaystyle {\frac {y\sum _{j}^{t}\alpha _{j}h_{j}(x)}{\sum |\alpha _{j}|}}.} By this definition, the margin is positive if the sample is labeled correctly, or negative if the sample is labeled incorrectly. This definition may be modified and is not the only way to define the margin for boosting algorithms. However, there are reasons why this definition may be appealing. == Examples of margin-based algorithms == Many classifiers can give an associated margin for each sample. However, only some classifiers utilize information of the margin while learning from a dataset. Many boosting algorithms rely on the notion of a margin to assign weight to samples. If a convex loss is utilized (as in AdaBoost or LogitBoost, for instance) then a sample with a higher margin will receive less (or equal) weight than a sample with a lower margin. This leads the boosting algorithm to focus weight on low-margin samples. In non-convex algorithms (e.g., BrownBoost), the margin still dictates the weighting of a sample, though the weighting is non-monotone with respect to the margin. == Generalization error bounds == One theoretical motivation behind margin classifiers is that their generalization error may be bound by the algorithm parameters and a margin term. An example of such a bound is for the AdaBoost algorithm. Let S {\displaystyle S} be a set of m {\displaystyle m} data points, sampled independently at random from a distribution D {\displaystyle D} . Assume the VC-dimension of the underlying base classifier is d {\displaystyle d} and m ≥ d ≥ 1 {\displaystyle m\geq d\geq 1} . Then, with probability 1 − δ {\displaystyle 1-\delta } , we have the bound: P D ( y ∑ j t α j h j ( x ) ∑ | α j | ≤ 0 ) ≤ P S ( y ∑ j t α j h j ( x ) ∑ | α j | ≤ θ ) + O ( 1 m d log 2 ⁡ ( m / d ) / θ 2 + log ⁡ ( 1 / δ ) ) {\displaystyle P_{D}\left({\frac {y\sum _{j}^{t}\alpha _{j}h_{j}(x)}{\sum |\alpha _{j}|}}\leq 0\right)\leq P_{S}\left({\frac {y\sum _{j}^{t}\alpha _{j}h_{j}(x)}{\sum |\alpha _{j}|}}\leq \theta \right)+O\left({\frac {1}{\sqrt {m}}}{\sqrt {d\log ^{2}(m/d)/\theta ^{2}+\log(1/\delta )}}\right)} for all θ > 0 {\displaystyle \theta >0} .

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  Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition

  The Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition is an annual conference on computer vision and pattern recognition. == Affiliations == The conference was first held in 1983 in Washington, DC, organized by Takeo Kanade and Dana H. Ballard. From 1985 to 2010 it was sponsored by the IEEE Computer Society. In 2011 it was also co-sponsored by University of Colorado Colorado Springs. Since 2012 it has been co-sponsored by the IEEE Computer Society and the Computer Vision Foundation, which provides open access to the conference papers. == Scope == The conference considers a wide range of topics related to computer vision and pattern recognition—basically any topic that is extracting structures or answers from images or video or applying mathematical methods to data to extract or recognize patterns. Common topics include object recognition, image segmentation, motion estimation, 3D reconstruction, and deep learning. The conference generally has less than 30% acceptance rates for all papers and less than 5% for oral presentations. It is managed by a rotating group of volunteers who are chosen in a public election at the Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence-Technical Community (PAMI-TC) meeting four years before the meeting. The conference uses a multi-tier double-blind peer review process. The program chairs, who cannot submit papers, select area chairs who manage the reviewers for their subset of submissions. == Location and time == The conference is usually held in June in North America. == Awards == === Best Paper Award === These awards are picked by committees delegated by the program chairs of the conference. === Longuet-Higgins Prize === The Longuet-Higgins Prize recognizes papers from ten years ago that have made a significant impact on computer vision research. === PAMI Young Researcher Award === The Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence Young Researcher Award is an award given by the Technical Committee on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence of the IEEE Computer Society to a researcher within 7 years of completing their Ph.D. for outstanding early career research contributions. Candidates are nominated by the computer vision community, with winners selected by a committee of senior researchers in the field. This award was originally instituted in 2012 by the journal Image and Vision Computing, also presented at the conference, and the journal continues to sponsor the award. === PAMI Thomas S. Huang Memorial Prize === The Thomas Huang Memorial Prize was established at the 2020 conference and is awarded annually starting from 2021 to honor researchers who are recognized as examples in research, teaching/mentoring, and service to the computer vision community.

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  Influence diagram

  An influence diagram (ID) (also called a relevance diagram, decision diagram or a decision network) is a compact graphical and mathematical representation of a decision situation. It is a generalization of a Bayesian network, in which not only probabilistic inference problems but also decision making problems (following the maximum expected utility criterion) can be modeled and solved. ID was first developed in the mid-1970s by decision analysts with an intuitive semantic that is easy to understand. It is now adopted widely and becoming an alternative to the decision tree which typically suffers from exponential growth in number of branches with each variable modeled. ID is directly applicable in team decision analysis, since it allows incomplete sharing of information among team members to be modeled and solved explicitly. Extensions of ID also find their use in game theory as an alternative representation of the game tree. == Semantics == An ID is a directed acyclic graph with three types (plus one subtype) of node and three types of arc (or arrow) between nodes. Nodes: Decision node (corresponding to each decision to be made) is drawn as a rectangle. Uncertainty node (corresponding to each uncertainty to be modeled) is drawn as an oval. Deterministic node (corresponding to special kind of uncertainty that its outcome is deterministically known whenever the outcome of some other uncertainties are also known) is drawn as a double oval. Value node (corresponding to each component of additively separable Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function) is drawn as an octagon (or diamond). Arcs: Functional arcs (ending in value node) indicate that one of the components of additively separable utility function is a function of all the nodes at their tails. Conditional arcs (ending in uncertainty node) indicate that the uncertainty at their heads is probabilistically conditioned on all the nodes at their tails. Conditional arcs (ending in deterministic node) indicate that the uncertainty at their heads is deterministically conditioned on all the nodes at their tails. Informational arcs (ending in decision node) indicate that the decision at their heads is made with the outcome of all the nodes at their tails known beforehand. Given a properly structured ID: Decision nodes and incoming information arcs collectively state the alternatives (what can be done when the outcome of certain decisions and/or uncertainties are known beforehand) Uncertainty/deterministic nodes and incoming conditional arcs collectively model the information (what are known and their probabilistic/deterministic relationships) Value nodes and incoming functional arcs collectively quantify the preference (how things are preferred over one another). Alternative, information, and preference are termed decision basis in decision analysis, they represent three required components of any valid decision situation. Formally, the semantic of influence diagram is based on sequential construction of nodes and arcs, which implies a specification of all conditional independencies in the diagram. The specification is defined by the d {\displaystyle d} -separation criterion of Bayesian network. According to this semantic, every node is probabilistically independent on its non-successor nodes given the outcome of its immediate predecessor nodes. Likewise, a missing arc between non-value node X {\displaystyle X} and non-value node Y {\displaystyle Y} implies that there exists a set of non-value nodes Z {\displaystyle Z} , e.g., the parents of Y {\displaystyle Y} , that renders Y {\displaystyle Y} independent of X {\displaystyle X} given the outcome of the nodes in Z {\displaystyle Z} . == Example == Consider the simple influence diagram representing a situation where a decision-maker is planning their vacation. There is 1 decision node (Vacation Activity), 2 uncertainty nodes (Weather Condition, Weather Forecast), and 1 value node (Satisfaction). There are 2 functional arcs (ending in Satisfaction), 1 conditional arc (ending in Weather Forecast), and 1 informational arc (ending in Vacation Activity). Functional arcs ending in Satisfaction indicate that Satisfaction is a utility function of Weather Condition and Vacation Activity. In other words, their satisfaction can be quantified if they know what the weather is like and what their choice of activity is. (Note that they do not value Weather Forecast directly) Conditional arc ending in Weather Forecast indicates their belief that Weather Forecast and Weather Condition can be dependent. Informational arc ending in Vacation Activity indicates that they will only know Weather Forecast, not Weather Condition, when making their choice. In other words, actual weather will be known after they make their choice, and only forecast is what they can count on at this stage. It also follows semantically, for example, that Vacation Activity is independent on (irrelevant to) Weather Condition given Weather Forecast is known. == Applicability to value of information == The above example highlights the power of the influence diagram in representing an extremely important concept in decision analysis known as the value of information. Consider the following three scenarios; Scenario 1: The decision-maker could make their Vacation Activity decision while knowing what Weather Condition will be like. This corresponds to adding extra informational arc from Weather Condition to Vacation Activity in the above influence diagram. Scenario 2: The original influence diagram as shown above. Scenario 3: The decision-maker makes their decision without even knowing the Weather Forecast. This corresponds to removing informational arc from Weather Forecast to Vacation Activity in the above influence diagram. Scenario 1 is the best possible scenario for this decision situation since there is no longer any uncertainty on what they care about (Weather Condition) when making their decision. Scenario 3, however, is the worst possible scenario for this decision situation since they need to make their decision without any hint (Weather Forecast) on what they care about (Weather Condition) will turn out to be. The decision-maker is usually better off (definitely no worse off, on average) to move from scenario 3 to scenario 2 through the acquisition of new information. The most they should be willing to pay for such move is called the value of information on Weather Forecast, which is essentially the value of imperfect information on Weather Condition. The applicability of this simple ID and the value of information concept is tremendous, especially in medical decision making when most decisions have to be made with imperfect information about their patients, diseases, etc. == Related concepts == Influence diagrams are hierarchical and can be defined either in terms of their structure or in greater detail in terms of the functional and numerical relation between diagram elements. An ID that is consistently defined at all levels—structure, function, and number—is a well-defined mathematical representation and is referred to as a well-formed influence diagram (WFID). WFIDs can be evaluated using reversal and removal operations to yield answers to a large class of probabilistic, inferential, and decision questions. More recent techniques have been developed by artificial intelligence researchers concerning Bayesian network inference (belief propagation). An influence diagram having only uncertainty nodes (i.e., a Bayesian network) is also called a relevance diagram. An arc connecting node A to B implies not only that "A is relevant to B", but also that "B is relevant to A" (i.e., relevance is a symmetric relationship).

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  24SevenOffice

  24SevenOffice is a Norwegian software company headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with offices in Stockholm, Sweden and London, United Kingdom. Founded in 1997, the company specializes in web-based (SaaS) ERP and CRM systems. == Company history == 24SevenOffice was founded in 1997 in Porsgrunn, Norway, as IKT Interactive AS and marketed as kontorplassen.no. The name "24SevenOffice" was introduced for the company's London branch when the company entered the British market in 2003. The company changed its name to 24SevenOffice in February 2005. Originally based in Skien, the company later moved to Oslo Innovation Center, then to Tjuvholmen in the waterfront Fjord City of Oslo, and now the headquarters are located in Inkognitogaten 33, Solli plass, Oslo. The idea for the company's product was developed in 1996, and 24SevenOffice was an early innovator in the Scandinavian market in web-based enterprise resource planning solutions (ERP). A British office was established at Surrey Business Park in May 2003, with the company launching its web-based (SaaS) utility computing system to the UK SME market in 2004. An office in Chennai, India, was established in 2005, and 24SevenOffice entered the Swedish market when they acquired the leading competitor and ERP-provider Start & Run in a cash deal. In August 2005, the company had an initial public offering that raised NOK 15 million, and the company entered The Norwegian Over the Counter Market list as of 5 October 2005 (the ticker was 24SO), reaching a market value of NOK 175 million, with 5000 customers in Norway. In 2006, the company signed a deal to sponsor rally driver Petter Solberg, at the time the largest private sponsorship in Norwegian sport. Instead of receiving NOK 5 million in cash, Solberg received a 2.9 per cent ownership in the company. The company entered the German-speaking market in April 2006 when an office in Frankfurt am Main was opened. In late August/early September, they established an office with ten sales agents plus a general manager in Stockholm for the Swedish market. 24SevenOffice initiated strategic cooperation with Active 24 in early 2006 to develop a common platform. During the summer, Active 24 was bought by 24SevenOffice's ERP/CRM competitor Mamut (company), and 24SevenOffice terminated the contract with Active 24 in October demanding NOK 200 million in compensation for lost revenue. After a breakdown of settlement negotiations in the Forliksråd in January 2007, 24SevenOffice filed a case against Active 24 for breach of agreement in the Oslo District Court in March. 24SevenOffice lost on all counts in the District Court in December 2007. In January 2008, 24SevenOffice appealed the case to the Borgarting Court of Appeal, reducing the cause of action from NOK 250 to 30 million. 24SevenOffice lost on all counts in the Court of Appeal in December 2008, and was ordered to cover the costs incurred by Active 24 in connection with the dispute totaling NOK 6.91 million. 24SevenOffice appealed the case to the Supreme Court of Norway, but the Supreme Court Appeals Committee in March 2008 unanimously rejected the appeal from 24SevenOffice over the Borgarting Appeal Court's unanimous judgment of December 2008. On a counterclaim from Active 24 and Mamut against 24SevenOffice, the Oslo District Court in May 2010 found, that 24SevenOffice should pay Active 24 NOK 12 million in compensation for wrongfully having terminated the agreement, and a further NOK 360.000 of the opponent's legal costs. 24SevenOffice disagreed with the court ruling, and appealed once again. The Borgarting Court of Appeal in November 2011, ruled to reduce the amount of damages to NOK 4.4 million plus NOK 900.000 in penal interest. With several scrip issues, 24SevenOffice raised 25 million NOK (about $4 million at the time) between October 2005 and July 2006. They entered into a strategic partnership with Bluegarden, who for 30 years had delivered digital services for payroll, human resource planning, recruitment and training, in March 2006, and they made a large-scale agreement in April 2006, with US telecommunications software company Webex, a competitor to Norwegian Tandberg videoconferencing equipment manufacturer. In September 2006, 24SevenOffice signed an agreement with Fokus Bank to provide their customers with extended functionality in Internet banking. 24SevenOffice had by 2007 reportedly 9000 customers, joined the OpenAjax Alliance, and entered into a strategic partnership with Dun & Bradstreet in May 2007, but despite getting listed on Oslo Axess on 22 June (ticker: TFSO), reaching a market capitalization of NOK 120 million, the company was still losing money. The company ended 2007 with a revenue of NOK 21.7 million. In 2008, 24SevenOffice bought 50% of the stocks in telecommunication company Oyatel, partnered with Nets Group to facilitate invoicing for businesses, and telecommunications company Telipol chose 24SevenOffice's second-generation Internet platform for its 8,000 users. They announced an increase in revenues in Q2 to 11.1 million, up from 4.7 million in the same period the year before. 24SevenOffice had a turnover of NOK 37 million in the first half of 2009, a doubling compared to the same period the previous year, and presented its first positive EBITDA in Q2. The Norwegian Association of Auditors signed an agreement with 24SevenOffice in 2011, whereby they only recommend 24SevenOffice as a system for their members to use. On 27 June 2013, the shareholders of 24SevenOffice took off from the stock exchange and privatized the company. In recent years, the company has invested heavily in finance and accounting – and got leading auditing companies such as PwC and KPMG on the customer list. == Products == 24SevenOffice is a web-based (SaaS) ERP system. It includes modules for CRM, accounting, invoicing, e-mail, file/document management and project management. == Awards == 24SevenOffice won the Seal of Excellence in Multimedia Award at the 2004 CeBIT, became Norwegian Gazelle Company of the year 2004, chosen by Dagens Næringsliv and Dun & Bradstreet, won Product of the Year in the Norwegian finance magazine Kapital, and the IKT Grenland Innovation Award in 2008.

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  Elastic map

  Elastic maps provide a tool for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. By their construction, they are a system of elastic springs embedded in the data space. This system approximates a low-dimensional manifold. The elastic coefficients of this system allow the switch from completely unstructured k-means clustering (zero elasticity) to the estimators located closely to linear PCA manifolds (for high bending and low stretching modules). With some intermediate values of the elasticity coefficients, this system effectively approximates non-linear principal manifolds. This approach is based on a mechanical analogy between principal manifolds, that are passing through "the middle" of the data distribution, and elastic membranes and plates. The method was developed by A.N. Gorban, A.Y. Zinovyev and A.A. Pitenko in 1996–1998. == Energy of elastic map == Let S {\displaystyle {\mathcal {S}}} be a data set in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. Elastic map is represented by a set of nodes w j {\displaystyle {\bf {w}}_{j}} in the same space. Each datapoint s ∈ S {\displaystyle s\in {\mathcal {S}}} has a host node, namely the closest node w j {\displaystyle {\bf {w}}_{j}} (if there are several closest nodes then one takes the node with the smallest number). The data set S {\displaystyle {\mathcal {S}}} is divided into classes K j = { s | w j is a host of s } {\displaystyle K_{j}=\{s\ |\ {\bf {w}}_{j}{\mbox{ is a host of }}s\}} . The approximation energy D is the distortion D = 1 2 ∑ j = 1 k ∑ s ∈ K j ‖ s − w j ‖ 2 {\displaystyle D={\frac {1}{2}}\sum _{j=1}^{k}\sum _{s\in K_{j}}\|s-{\bf {w}}_{j}\|^{2}} , which is the energy of the springs with unit elasticity which connect each data point with its host node. It is possible to apply weighting factors to the terms of this sum, for example to reflect the standard deviation of the probability density function of any subset of data points { s i } {\displaystyle \{s_{i}\}} . On the set of nodes an additional structure is defined. Some pairs of nodes, ( w i , w j ) {\displaystyle ({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j})} , are connected by elastic edges. Call this set of pairs E {\displaystyle E} . Some triplets of nodes, ( w i , w j , w k ) {\displaystyle ({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j},{\bf {w}}_{k})} , form bending ribs. Call this set of triplets G {\displaystyle G} . The stretching energy is U E = 1 2 λ ∑ ( w i , w j ) ∈ E ‖ w i − w j ‖ 2 {\displaystyle U_{E}={\frac {1}{2}}\lambda \sum _{({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j})\in E}\|{\bf {w}}_{i}-{\bf {w}}_{j}\|^{2}} , The bending energy is U G = 1 2 μ ∑ ( w i , w j , w k ) ∈ G ‖ w i − 2 w j + w k ‖ 2 {\displaystyle U_{G}={\frac {1}{2}}\mu \sum _{({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j},{\bf {w}}_{k})\in G}\|{\bf {w}}_{i}-2{\bf {w}}_{j}+{\bf {w}}_{k}\|^{2}} , where λ {\displaystyle \lambda } and μ {\displaystyle \mu } are the stretching and bending moduli respectively. The stretching energy is sometimes referred to as the membrane, while the bending energy is referred to as the thin plate term. For example, on the 2D rectangular grid the elastic edges are just vertical and horizontal edges (pairs of closest vertices) and the bending ribs are the vertical or horizontal triplets of consecutive (closest) vertices. The total energy of the elastic map is thus U = D + U E + U G . {\displaystyle U=D+U_{E}+U_{G}.} The position of the nodes { w j } {\displaystyle \{{\bf {w}}_{j}\}} is determined by the mechanical equilibrium of the elastic map, i.e. its location is such that it minimizes the total energy U {\displaystyle U} . == Expectation-maximization algorithm == For a given splitting of dataset S {\displaystyle {\mathcal {S}}} in classes K j {\displaystyle K_{j}} , minimization of the quadratic functional U {\displaystyle U} is a linear problem with the sparse matrix of coefficients. Therefore, similar to principal component analysis or k-means, a splitting method is used: For given { w j } {\displaystyle \{{\bf {w}}_{j}\}} find { K j } {\displaystyle \{K_{j}\}} ; For given { K j } {\displaystyle \{K_{j}\}} minimize U {\displaystyle U} and find { w j } {\displaystyle \{{\bf {w}}_{j}\}} ; If no change, terminate. This expectation-maximization algorithm guarantees a local minimum of U {\displaystyle U} . For improving the approximation various additional methods are proposed. For example, the softening strategy is used. This strategy starts with a rigid grids (small length, small bending and large elasticity modules λ {\displaystyle \lambda } and μ {\displaystyle \mu } coefficients) and finishes with soft grids (small λ {\displaystyle \lambda } and μ {\displaystyle \mu } ). The training goes in several epochs, each epoch with its own grid rigidness. Another adaptive strategy is growing net: one starts from a small number of nodes and gradually adds new nodes. Each epoch goes with its own number of nodes. == Applications == Most important applications of the method and free software are in bioinformatics for exploratory data analysis and visualisation of multidimensional data, for data visualisation in economics, social and political sciences, as an auxiliary tool for data mapping in geographic informational systems and for visualisation of data of various nature. The method is applied in quantitative biology for reconstructing the curved surface of a tree leaf from a stack of light microscopy images. This reconstruction is used for quantifying the geodesic distances between trichomes and their patterning, which is a marker of the capability of a plant to resist to pathogenes. Recently, the method is adapted as a support tool in the decision process underlying the selection, optimization, and management of financial portfolios. The method of elastic maps has been systematically tested and compared with several machine learning methods on the applied problem of identification of the flow regime of a gas-liquid flow in a pipe. There are various regimes: Single phase water or air flow, Bubbly flow, Bubbly-slug flow, Slug flow, Slug-churn flow, Churn flow, Churn-annular flow, and Annular flow. The simplest and most common method used to identify the flow regime is visual observation. This approach is, however, subjective and unsuitable for relatively high gas and liquid flow rates. Therefore, the machine learning methods are proposed by many authors. The methods are applied to differential pressure data collected during a calibration process. The method of elastic maps provided a 2D map, where the area of each regime is represented. The comparison with some other machine learning methods is presented in Table 1 for various pipe diameters and pressure. Here, ANN stands for the backpropagation artificial neural networks, SVM stands for the support vector machine, SOM for the self-organizing maps. The hybrid technology was developed for engineering applications. In this technology, elastic maps are used in combination with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and backpropagation ANN. The textbook provides a systematic comparison of elastic maps and self-organizing maps (SOMs) in applications to economic and financial decision-making.

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  Teacher forcing

  Teacher forcing is an algorithm for training the weights of recurrent neural networks (RNNs). It involves feeding observed sequence values (i.e. ground-truth samples) back into the RNN after each step, thus forcing the RNN to stay close to the ground-truth sequence. The term "teacher forcing" can be motivated by comparing the RNN to a human student taking a multi-part exam where the answer to each part (for example a mathematical calculation) depends on the answer to the preceding part. In this analogy, rather than grading every answer in the end, with the risk that the student fails every single part even though they only made a mistake in the first one, a teacher records the score for each individual part and then tells the student the correct answer, to be used in the next part. The use of an external teacher signal is in contrast to real-time recurrent learning (RTRL). Teacher signals are known from oscillator networks. The promise is, that teacher forcing helps to reduce the training time. The term "teacher forcing" was introduced in 1989 by Ronald J. Williams and David Zipser, who reported that the technique was already being "frequently used in dynamical supervised learning tasks" around that time. A NeurIPS 2016 paper introduced the related method of "professor forcing".

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  Physical neural network

  A physical neural network is a type of artificial neural network in which an electrically adjustable material is used to emulate the function of a neural synapse or a higher-order (dendritic) neuron model. "Physical" neural network is used to emphasize the reliance on physical hardware used to emulate neurons as opposed to software-based approaches. More generally the term is applicable to other artificial neural networks in which a memristor or other electrically adjustable resistance material is used to emulate a neural synapse. == Types of physical neural networks == === ADALINE === In the 1960s Bernard Widrow and Ted Hoff developed ADALINE (Adaptive Linear Neuron) which used electrochemical cells called memistors (memory resistors) to emulate synapses of an artificial neuron. The memistors were implemented as 3-terminal devices operating based on the reversible electroplating of copper such that the resistance between two of the terminals is controlled by the integral of the current applied via the third terminal. The ADALINE circuitry was briefly commercialized by the Memistor Corporation in the 1960s enabling some applications in pattern recognition. However, since the memistors were not fabricated using integrated circuit fabrication techniques the technology was not scalable and was eventually abandoned as solid-state electronics became mature. === Analog VLSI === In 1989 Carver Mead published his book Analog VLSI and Neural Systems, which spun off perhaps the most common variant of analog neural networks. The physical realization is implemented in analog VLSI. This is often implemented as field effect transistors in low inversion. Such devices can be modelled as translinear circuits. This is a technique described by Barrie Gilbert in several papers around mid 1970th, and in particular his Translinear Circuits from 1981. With this method circuits can be analyzed as a set of well-defined functions in steady-state, and such circuits assembled into complex networks. === Physical Neural Network === Alex Nugent describes a physical neural network as one or more nonlinear neuron-like nodes used to sum signals and nanoconnections formed from nanoparticles, nanowires, or nanotubes which determine the signal strength input to the nodes. Alignment or self-assembly of the nanoconnections is determined by the history of the applied electric field performing a function analogous to neural synapses. Numerous applications for such physical neural networks are possible. For example, a temporal summation device can be composed of one or more nanoconnections having an input and an output thereof, wherein an input signal provided to the input causes one or more of the nanoconnection to experience an increase in connection strength thereof over time. Another example of a physical neural network is taught by U.S. Patent No. 7,039,619 entitled "Utilized nanotechnology apparatus using a neural network, a solution and a connection gap," which issued to Alex Nugent by the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office on May 2, 2006. A further application of physical neural network is shown in U.S. Patent No. 7,412,428 entitled "Application of hebbian and anti-hebbian learning to nanotechnology-based physical neural networks," which issued on August 12, 2008. Nugent and Molter have shown that universal computing and general-purpose machine learning are possible from operations available through simple memristive circuits operating the AHaH plasticity rule. More recently, it has been argued that also complex networks of purely memristive circuits can serve as neural networks. === Phase change neural network === In 2002, Stanford Ovshinsky described an analog neural computing medium in which phase-change material has the ability to cumulatively respond to multiple input signals. An electrical alteration of the resistance of the phase change material is used to control the weighting of the input signals. === Memristive neural network === Greg Snider of HP Labs describes a system of cortical computing with memristive nanodevices. The memristors (memory resistors) are implemented by thin film materials in which the resistance is electrically tuned via the transport of ions or oxygen vacancies within the film. DARPA's SyNAPSE project has funded IBM Research and HP Labs, in collaboration with the Boston University Department of Cognitive and Neural Systems (CNS), to develop neuromorphic architectures which may be based on memristive systems. === Protonic artificial synapses === In 2022, researchers reported the development of nanoscale brain-inspired artificial synapses, using the ion proton (H+), for 'analog deep learning'.

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  Taimi

  Taimi ( TAY-mee) is a dating app that caters to the LGBTQI+ community. The network matches its registered users based on their selected preferences and location. Originally an online dating service for gay men, by 2022 Taimi had become an app for all members of the LGBTQI+ community. It operates in more than 138 countries, including the US, UK, the Netherlands, Spain, Central and South America, Ukraine, and other European and Asian countries. Taimi runs on iOS and Android. The mobile app has a free and subscription-based premium version and offers a number of services for communication, including live streaming, chatting, and video calling. There is also an active blog that regularly posts articles and news about events of interest to the LGBTQ+ community. The application does not provide for non-Google e-mail log option, either phone number or Facebook account, during the registration process. The data controller for the non EU/UK users is based in a company, called Social Impact Inc., with its registered address at 1180 North Town Center Drive Suite 100, Las Vegas, Nevada, 89144, United States of America. == History == Taimi was launched in 2017 by Social Impact, Inc. in Las Vegas. Its founder, Alex Pasykov, originally called the app "Tame Me," a name that gradually morphed into Taimi. Over time, Taimi expanded into other countries, and expanding its reach to the LGBTQ+ community, so that, by 2022, it was fully inclusive of the entire queer community. In November 2020 the app was redesigned, with a new interface, branding, and logo. As of 2024, there are over 25 million registered users of Taimi worldwide. Pasykov states that he is an ally of the LGBTQ+ community and that he is focused on, among other things, partnering with NGOs to fight Homophobia and "regressive policies and laws" that negatively impact the community. == Features == Users register on the app and complete a profile, including personal information and preferences for compatibility, dating style, and relationship goals. An algorithm then finds and presents recommendations that a user accepts or rejects. Users are then free to chat via text or video with people they have connected with. Safety and security features include a two-step authentication process and an automated account verification along with a clear reporting system when breaches or policy violations occur. User responses to new features and policies drive changes and modifications that are made to all aspects of the site. == Partnerships and Collaborations == Taimi has a long history of collaborations and partnerships in Pride events, both in the US and abroad, including fund-raising efforts. Taimi has partnered with Rakuten Viber to create a bot focused on educating its members on key LGBTQ+ topics and to allow queer Viber users to connect. In 2023, Taimi collaborated with the Known Agency in an "America the Beautiful" campaign to shine a spotlight on current anti-LGBTQ+ policies and laws in a number of US states, and to counter these by highlighting the values and freedoms upon which America was founded. The campaign was nominated for The Drum Awards in the category "OOH For Good" and honored with the ANA Multicultural Excellence Award. Taimi also partnered with Goodparts, a queer-owned and operated retailer, in a "Body Beautiful" campaign focused on love and acceptance of all body types. In this campaign, well-known LGBTQ+ artists are providing artwork for Goodpart's product packaging. From October 31 to December 13, 2023, Taimi showed the "Taimi Moments" video, created in collaboration with Raygun Agency, on large screens between performances of LGBTQ+ artists Doja Cat, Ice Spice, and Doechii on their Scarlet Tour. In spring 2024, Taimi launched Queer Paradise, a series of live events in Southern California to celebrate diversity, sexual exploration, and dating fluidity. Each event in the series was curated to give the full spectrum of groups within the LGBTQ+ community a space to express their authentic selves. Taimi's partners for Queer Paradise include Hawtmess Productions, Eden Entertainment Group, Hump Events, Girls Gays & Theys, Damn Good Dyke Nights, and Gaybors Agency. In summer 2024, with support from GLAAD, Taimi has updated features and self-expression tools to better serve the LGBTQ+ people seeking connection in the app. Taimi allowed members to select multiple sexualities, unified the list of sexualities across all genders, added more pronoun options, and created a more inclusive and improved list of subcategories for non-binary users. Also, in summer 2024, Taimi has partnered with gender-affirming underwear brand Urbody to release a capsule collection. Focused on gender inclusivity and sexual fluidity, the capsule collection includes a range of underwear and compression tops intended to promote "joy, self-love and empowerment."

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  Bayesian hierarchical modeling

  Bayesian hierarchical modelling is a statistical model written in multiple levels (hierarchical form) that estimates the posterior distribution of model parameters using the Bayesian method. The sub-models combine to form the hierarchical model, and Bayes' theorem is used to integrate them with the observed data and account for all the uncertainty that is present. This integration enables calculation of updated posterior over the (hyper)parameters, effectively updating prior beliefs in light of the observed data. Frequentist statistics may yield conclusions seemingly incompatible with those offered by Bayesian statistics due to the Bayesian treatment of the parameters as random variables and its use of subjective information in establishing assumptions on these parameters. As the approaches answer different questions the formal results are not technically contradictory but the two approaches disagree over which answer is relevant to particular applications. Bayesians argue that relevant information regarding decision-making and updating beliefs cannot be ignored and that hierarchical modeling has the potential to overrule classical methods in applications where respondents give multiple observational data. Moreover, the model has proven to be robust, with the posterior distribution less sensitive to the more flexible hierarchical priors. Hierarchical modeling, as its name implies, retains nested data structure, and is used when information is available at several different levels of observational units. For example, in epidemiological modeling to describe infection trajectories for multiple countries, observational units are countries, and each country has its own time-based profile of daily infected cases. In decline curve analysis to describe oil or gas production decline curve for multiple wells, observational units are oil or gas wells in a reservoir region, and each well has each own time-based profile of oil or gas production rates (usually, barrels per month). Hierarchical modeling is used to devise computation based strategies for multiparameter problems. == Philosophy == Statistical methods and models commonly involve multiple parameters that can be regarded as related or connected in such a way that the problem implies a dependence of the joint probability model for these parameters. Individual degrees of belief, expressed in the form of probabilities, come with uncertainty. Amidst this is the change of the degrees of belief over time. As was stated by Professor José M. Bernardo and Professor Adrian F. Smith, "The actuality of the learning process consists in the evolution of individual and subjective beliefs about the reality." These subjective probabilities are more directly involved in the mind rather than the physical probabilities. Hence, it is with this need of updating beliefs that Bayesians have formulated an alternative statistical model which takes into account the prior occurrence of a particular event. == Bayes' theorem == The assumed occurrence of a real-world event will typically modify preferences between certain options. This is done by modifying the degrees of belief attached, by an individual, to the events defining the options. Suppose in a study of the effectiveness of cardiac treatments, with the patients in hospital j having survival probability θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} , the survival probability will be updated with the occurrence of y, the event in which a controversial serum is created which, as believed by some, increases survival in cardiac patients. In order to make updated probability statements about θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} , given the occurrence of event y, we must begin with a model providing a joint probability distribution for θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} and y. This can be written as a product of the two distributions that are often referred to as the prior distribution P ( θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta )} and the sampling distribution P ( y ∣ θ ) {\displaystyle P(y\mid \theta )} respectively: P ( θ , y ) = P ( θ ) P ( y ∣ θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta ,y)=P(\theta )P(y\mid \theta )} Using the basic property of conditional probability, the posterior distribution will yield: P ( θ ∣ y ) = P ( θ , y ) P ( y ) = P ( y ∣ θ ) P ( θ ) P ( y ) {\displaystyle P(\theta \mid y)={\frac {P(\theta ,y)}{P(y)}}={\frac {P(y\mid \theta )P(\theta )}{P(y)}}} This equation, showing the relationship between the conditional probability and the individual events, is known as Bayes' theorem. This simple expression encapsulates the technical core of Bayesian inference which aims to deconstruct the probability, P ( θ ∣ y ) {\displaystyle P(\theta \mid y)} , relative to solvable subsets of its supportive evidence. == Exchangeability == The usual starting point of a statistical analysis is the assumption that the n values y 1 , y 2 , … , y n {\displaystyle y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n}} are exchangeable. If no information – other than data y – is available to distinguish any of the θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} 's from any others, and no ordering or grouping of the parameters can be made, one must assume symmetry of prior distribution parameters. This symmetry is represented probabilistically by exchangeability. Generally, it is useful and appropriate to model data from an exchangeable distribution as independently and identically distributed, given some unknown parameter vector θ {\displaystyle \theta } , with distribution P ( θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta )} . === Finite exchangeability === For a fixed number n, the set y 1 , y 2 , … , y n {\displaystyle y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n}} is exchangeable if the joint probability P ( y 1 , y 2 , … , y n ) {\displaystyle P(y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n})} is invariant under permutations of the indices. That is, for every permutation π {\displaystyle \pi } or ( π 1 , π 2 , … , π n ) {\displaystyle (\pi _{1},\pi _{2},\ldots ,\pi _{n})} of (1, 2, …, n), P ( y 1 , y 2 , … , y n ) = P ( y π 1 , y π 2 , … , y π n ) . {\displaystyle P(y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n})=P(y_{\pi _{1}},y_{\pi _{2}},\ldots ,y_{\pi _{n}}).} The following is an exchangeable, but not independent and identical (iid), example: Consider an urn with a red ball and a blue ball inside, with probability 1 2 {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}} of drawing either. Balls are drawn without replacement, i.e. after one ball is drawn from the n {\displaystyle n} balls, there will be n − 1 {\displaystyle n-1} remaining balls left for the next draw. Let Y i = { 1 , if the i th ball is red , 0 , otherwise . {\displaystyle {\text{Let }}Y_{i}={\begin{cases}1,&{\text{if the }}i{\text{th ball is red}},\\0,&{\text{otherwise}}.\end{cases}}} The probability of selecting a red ball in the first draw and a blue ball in the second draw is equal to the probability of selecting a blue ball on the first draw and a red on the second, both of which are 1/2: P ( y 1 = 1 , y 2 = 0 ) = P ( y 1 = 0 , y 2 = 1 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle P(y_{1}=1,y_{2}=0)=P(y_{1}=0,y_{2}=1)={\frac {1}{2}}} . This makes y 1 {\displaystyle y_{1}} and y 2 {\displaystyle y_{2}} exchangeable. But the probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw given that the red ball has already been selected in the first is 0. This is not equal to the probability that the red ball is selected in the second draw, which is 1/2: P ( y 2 = 1 ∣ y 1 = 1 ) = 0 ≠ P ( y 2 = 1 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle P(y_{2}=1\mid y_{1}=1)=0\neq P(y_{2}=1)={\frac {1}{2}}} . Thus, y 1 {\displaystyle y_{1}} and y 2 {\displaystyle y_{2}} are not independent. If x 1 , … , x n {\displaystyle x_{1},\ldots ,x_{n}} are independent and identically distributed, then they are exchangeable, but the converse is not necessarily true. === Infinite exchangeability === Infinite exchangeability is the property that every finite subset of an infinite sequence y 1 {\displaystyle y_{1}} , y 2 , … {\displaystyle y_{2},\ldots } is exchangeable. For any n, the sequence y 1 , y 2 , … , y n {\displaystyle y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n}} is exchangeable. == Hierarchical models == === Components === Bayesian hierarchical modeling makes use of two important concepts in deriving the posterior distribution, namely: Hyperparameters: parameters of the prior distribution Hyperpriors: distributions of Hyperparameters Suppose a random variable Y follows a normal distribution with parameter θ {\displaystyle \theta } as the mean and 1 as the variance, that is Y ∣ θ ∼ N ( θ , 1 ) {\displaystyle Y\mid \theta \sim N(\theta ,1)} . The tilde relation ∼ {\displaystyle \sim } can be read as "has the distribution of" or "is distributed as". Suppose also that the parameter θ {\displaystyle \theta } has a distribution given by a normal distribution with mean μ {\displaystyle \mu } and variance 1, i.e. θ ∣ μ ∼ N ( μ , 1 ) {\displaystyle \theta \mid \mu \sim N(\mu ,1)} . Furthermore, μ {\displaystyle \mu } follows another distribution given, for example, by the standard normal distribution, N ( 0 , 1 ) {\displaystyle {\text{N}}(0,1)} . The parameter μ {\dis

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  Causal Markov condition

  The Causal Markov (CM) condition states that, conditional on the set of all its direct causes, a node is independent of all variables which are not effects or direct causes of that node. In the event that the structure of a Bayesian network accurately depicts causality, the two conditions are equivalent. This is related to the Markov condition, an assumption made in Bayesian probability theory, that every node in a Bayesian network is conditionally independent of its nondescendants, given its parents. Stated loosely, it is assumed that a node has no bearing on nodes which do not descend from it. In a DAG, this local Markov condition is equivalent to the global Markov condition, which states that d-separations in the graph also correspond to conditional independence relations. This also means that a node is conditionally independent of the entire network, given its Markov blanket. A network may accurately embody the Markov condition without depicting causality, in which case it should not be assumed to embody the causal Markov condition. == Motivation == Statisticians are enormously interested in the ways in which certain events and variables are connected. The precise notion of what constitutes a cause and effect is necessary to understand the connections between them. The central idea behind the philosophical study of probabilistic causation is that causes raise the probabilities of their effects, all else being equal. A deterministic interpretation of causation means that if A causes B, then A must always be followed by B. In this sense, smoking does not cause cancer because some smokers never develop cancer. On the other hand, a probabilistic interpretation simply means that causes raise the probability of their effects. In this sense, changes in meteorological readings associated with a storm do cause that storm, since they raise its probability. (However, simply looking at a barometer does not change the probability of the storm, for a more detailed analysis, see:). == Examples == In a simple view, releasing one's hand from a hammer causes the hammer to fall. However, doing so in outer space does not produce the same outcome, calling into question if releasing one's fingers from a hammer always causes it to fall. A causal graph could be created to acknowledge that both the presence of gravity and the release of the hammer contribute to its falling. However, it would be very surprising if the surface underneath the hammer affected its falling. This essentially states the Causal Markov Condition, that given the existence of gravity the release of the hammer, it will fall regardless of what is beneath it. == Implications == === Dependence and Causation === It follows from the definition that if X and Y are in V and are probabilistically dependent, then either X causes Y, Y causes X, or X and Y are both effects of some common cause Z in V. This definition was seminally introduced by Hans Reichenbach as the Common Cause Principle (CCP). === Screening === It once again follows from the definition that the parents of X screen X from other "indirect causes" of X (parents of Parents(X)) and other effects of Parents(X) which are not also effects of X.

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