AI Chatbot Generator

AI Chatbot Generator — independent reviews, comparisons, pricing and step-by-step guides on Aizhi.

  • Business Controls Corporation

    Business Controls Corporation

    Business Controls Corporation is a privately held computer company that developed an application-program-generator and also a series of accounting software packages. These packages were widely enough used for various business magazines to have back-of-the-book ads for companies seeking accountants with experience in one or more of them. Computer magazines ran coverage for their SB-5 application-program-generator as from time to time new versions were released, each with new or improved features. == Early days == The company's initial offerings were packages for the DEC PDP-8, although Business Controls Corporation also wrote custom-written programs for customers. Large customers with mainframes who also used smaller systems for departmental use and distributed processing also used BCC's services. == SB-5 == The addition of an application-program-generator named SB-5 that, from specifications, could generate COBOL code was a major step forward. Although this began with supporting the DEC PDP-11, they subsequently began to support COBOL on DEC's DECsystem-10 & DECSYSTEM-20. VAX support came later. The specifications also permitted COBOL inserts and overrides: SB-5 could build an application that was all COBOL, yet only code the portions that varied from BCC's "vanilla" accounting packages. === Similar offerings === A similar idea was done for the IBM mainframe world in the form of a series of application-program-generators from Dylakor Corporation. They were named DYL-250, DYL-260, DYL-270 & DYL-280. Dylakor was acquired by Computer Associates. The specific syntax was different, but it had wider use, and - a mark of success and recognition in the industry - syntax-compatible implementations were released by a competitor. Still another alternative was Peat Marwick Mitchell's PMM2170 application-program-generator package. Like the others, it supported COBOL inserts and overrides. === Extended integration === Business Controls Corporation subsequently extended SB-5's feature set to provide support for System 1022, a product for the DECsystem-10 & DECSYSTEM-20; 1022's vendor also had a VAX/VMS (later OpenVMS) product, System 1032.

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  • Structured kNN

    Structured kNN

    Structured k-nearest neighbours (SkNN) is a machine learning algorithm that generalizes k-nearest neighbors (k-NN). k-NN supports binary classification, multiclass classification, and regression, whereas SkNN allows training of a classifier for general structured output. For instance, a data sample might be a natural language sentence, and the output could be an annotated parse tree. Training a classifier consists of showing many instances of ground truth sample-output pairs. After training, the SkNN model is able to predict the corresponding output for new, unseen sample instances; that is, given a natural language sentence, the classifier can produce the most likely parse tree. == Training == As a training set, SkNN accepts sequences of elements with class labels. The type of element does not matter; the only requirement is a defined metric function that gives a distance between each pair of elements of a set. SkNN is based on idea of creating a graph, with each node representing a class label. There is an edge between a pair of nodes if there is a sequence of two elements in the training set with corresponding classes. The first step of SkNN training is the construction of such a graph from training sequences. There are two special nodes in the graph corresponding to sentence beginnings and ends: if a sequence starts with class C, the edge between node START and node C should be created. Like regular k-NN, the second part of SkNN training consists of storing the elements of a training sequence in a certain way. Each element of the training sequences is stored in the node related to the class of the previous element in the sequence. Every first element is stored in the START node. == Inference == Labelling input sequences by SkNN consists of finding the sequence of transitions in the graph, starting from node START. Each transition corresponds to a single element of the input sequence. As a result, the label of each element is determined as the target node label of the transition. The cost of the path is defined as the sum of all transitions, with the cost of transition from node A to node B being the distance from the current input sequence element to the nearest element of class B, stored in node A. Determining an optimal path may be performed using a modified Viterbi algorithm (where the sum of the distances is minimized, unlike the original algorithm which maximizes the product of probabilities).

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  • Pruning (artificial neural network)

    Pruning (artificial neural network)

    In deep learning, pruning is the practice of removing parameters from an existing artificial neural network. The goal of this process is to reduce the size (parameter count) of the neural network (and therefore the computational resources required to run it) whilst maintaining accuracy. This can be compared to the biological process of synaptic pruning which takes place in mammalian brains during development. == Node (neuron) pruning == A basic algorithm for pruning is as follows: Evaluate the importance of each neuron. Rank the neurons according to their importance (assuming there is a clearly defined measure for "importance"). Remove the least important neuron. Check a termination condition (to be determined by the user) to see whether to continue pruning. == Edge (weight) pruning == Most work on neural network pruning does not remove full neurons or layers (structured pruning). Instead, it focuses on removing the most insignificant weights (unstructured pruning), namely, setting their values to zero. This can either be done globally by comparing weights from all layers in the network or locally by comparing weights in each layer separately. Different metrics can be used to measure the importance of each weight. Weight magnitude as well as combinations of weight and gradient information are commonly used metrics. Early work suggested also to change the values of non-pruned weights. == When to prune the neural network? == Pruning can be applied at three different stages: before training, during training, or after training. When pruning is performed during or after training, additional fine-tuning epochs are typically required. Each approach involves different trade-offs between accuracy and computational cost.

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  • Information gain (decision tree)

    Information gain (decision tree)

    In the context of decision trees in information theory and machine learning, information gain refers to the conditional expected value of the Kullback–Leibler divergence of the univariate probability distribution of one variable from the conditional distribution of this variable given the other one. (In broader contexts, information gain can also be used as a synonym for either Kullback–Leibler divergence or mutual information, but the focus of this article is on the more narrow meaning below.) Explicitly, the information gain of a random variable X {\displaystyle X} obtained from an observation of a random variable A {\displaystyle A} taking value a {\displaystyle a} is defined as: I G ( X , a ) = D KL ( P X ∣ a ∥ P X ) {\displaystyle {\mathit {IG}}(X,a)=D_{\text{KL}}{\bigl (}P_{X\mid a}\parallel P_{X}{\bigr )}} In other words, it is the Kullback–Leibler divergence of P X ( x ) {\displaystyle P_{X}(x)} (the prior distribution for X {\displaystyle X} ) from P X ∣ a ( x ) {\displaystyle P_{X\mid a}(x)} (the posterior distribution for X {\displaystyle X} given A = a {\displaystyle A=a} ). The expected value of the information gain is the mutual information I ( X ; A ) {\displaystyle I(X;A)} : E A ⁡ [ I G ( X , A ) ] = I ( X ; A ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} _{A}[{\mathit {IG}}(X,A)]=I(X;A)} i.e. the reduction in the entropy of X {\displaystyle X} achieved by learning the state of the random variable A {\displaystyle A} . In machine learning, this concept can be used to define a preferred sequence of attributes to investigate to most rapidly narrow down the state of X. Such a sequence (which depends on the outcome of the investigation of previous attributes at each stage) is called a decision tree, and when applied in the area of machine learning is known as decision tree learning. Usually an attribute with high mutual information should be preferred to other attributes. == General definition == In general terms, the expected information gain is the reduction in information entropy Η from a prior state to a state that takes some information as given: I G ( T , a ) = H ( T ) − H ( T | a ) , {\displaystyle IG(T,a)=\mathrm {H} {(T)}-\mathrm {H} {(T|a)},} where H ( T | a ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} {(T|a)}} is the conditional entropy of T {\displaystyle T} given the value of attribute a {\displaystyle a} . This is intuitively plausible when interpreting entropy Η as a measure of uncertainty of a random variable T {\displaystyle T} : by learning (or assuming) a {\displaystyle a} about T {\displaystyle T} , our uncertainty about T {\displaystyle T} is reduced (i.e. I G ( T , a ) {\displaystyle IG(T,a)} is positive), unless of course T {\displaystyle T} is independent of a {\displaystyle a} , in which case H ( T | a ) = H ( T ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} (T|a)=\mathrm {H} (T)} , meaning I G ( T , a ) = 0 {\displaystyle IG(T,a)=0} . == Formal definition == Let T denote a set of training examples, each of the form ( x , y ) = ( x 1 , x 2 , x 3 , . . . , x k , y ) {\displaystyle ({\textbf {x}},y)=(x_{1},x_{2},x_{3},...,x_{k},y)} where x a ∈ v a l s ( a ) {\displaystyle x_{a}\in \mathrm {vals} (a)} is the value of the a th {\displaystyle a^{\text{th}}} attribute or feature of example x {\displaystyle {\textbf {x}}} and y is the corresponding class label. The information gain for an attribute a is defined in terms of Shannon entropy H ( − ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} (-)} as follows. For a value v taken by attribute a, let S a ( v ) = { x ∈ T | x a = v } {\displaystyle S_{a}{(v)}=\{{\textbf {x}}\in T|x_{a}=v\}} be defined as the set of training inputs of T for which attribute a is equal to v. Then the information gain of T for attribute a is the difference between the a priori Shannon entropy H ( T ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} (T)} of the training set and the conditional entropy H ( T | a ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} {(T|a)}} . H ( T | a ) = ∑ v ∈ v a l s ( a ) | S a ( v ) | | T | ⋅ H ( S a ( v ) ) . {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} (T|a)=\sum _{v\in \mathrm {vals} (a)}{{\frac {|S_{a}{(v)}|}{|T|}}\cdot \mathrm {H} \left(S_{a}{\left(v\right)}\right)}.} I G ( T , a ) = H ( T ) − H ( T | a ) {\displaystyle IG(T,a)=\mathrm {H} (T)-\mathrm {H} (T|a)} The mutual information is equal to the total entropy for an attribute if for each of the attribute values a unique classification can be made for the result attribute. In this case, the relative entropies subtracted from the total entropy are 0. In particular, the values v ∈ v a l s ( a ) {\displaystyle v\in vals(a)} defines a partition of the training set data T into mutually exclusive and all-inclusive subsets, inducing a categorical probability distribution P a ( v ) {\textstyle P_{a}{(v)}} on the values v ∈ v a l s ( a ) {\textstyle v\in vals(a)} of attribute a. The distribution is given P a ( v ) := | S a ( v ) | | T | {\textstyle P_{a}{(v)}:={\frac {|S_{a}{(v)}|}{|T|}}} . In this representation, the information gain of T given a can be defined as the difference between the unconditional Shannon entropy of T and the expected entropy of T conditioned on a, where the expectation value is taken with respect to the induced distribution on the values of a. I G ( T , a ) = H ( T ) − ∑ v ∈ v a l s ( a ) P a ( v ) H ( S a ( v ) ) = H ( T ) − E P a [ H ( S a ( v ) ) ] = H ( T ) − H ( T | a ) . {\displaystyle {\begin{alignedat}{2}IG(T,a)&=\mathrm {H} (T)-\sum _{v\in \mathrm {vals} (a)}{P_{a}{(v)}\mathrm {H} \left(S_{a}{(v)}\right)}\\&=\mathrm {H} (T)-\mathbb {E} _{P_{a}}{\left[\mathrm {H} {(S_{a}{(v)})}\right]}\\&=\mathrm {H} (T)-\mathrm {H} {(T|a)}.\end{alignedat}}} == Example == In engineering applications, information is analogous to signal, and entropy is analogous to noise. It determines how a decision tree chooses to split data. The leftmost figure below is very impure and has high entropy corresponding to higher disorder and lower information value. As we go to the right, the entropy decreases, and the information value increases. Now, it is clear that information gain is the measure of how much information a feature provides about a class. Let's visualize information gain in a decision tree as shown in the right: The node t is the parent node, and the sub-nodes tL and tR are child nodes. In this case, the parent node t has a collection of cancer and non-cancer samples denoted as C and NC respectively. We can use information gain to determine how good the splitting of nodes is in a decision tree. In terms of entropy, information gain is defined as: To understand this idea, let's start by an example in which we create a simple dataset and want to see if gene mutations could be related to patients with cancer. Given four different gene mutations, as well as seven samples, the training set for a decision can be created as follows: In this dataset, a 1 means the sample has the mutation (True), while a 0 means the sample does not (False). A sample with C denotes that it has been confirmed to be cancerous, while NC means it is non-cancerous. Using this data, a decision tree can be created with information gain used to determine the candidate splits for each node. For the next step, the entropy at parent node t of the above simple decision tree is computed as:H(t) = −[pC,t log2(pC,t) + pNC,t log2(pNC,t)] where, probability of selecting a class ‘C’ sample at node t, pC,t = n(t, C) / n(t), probability of selecting a class ‘NC’ sample at node t, pNC,t = n(t, NC) / n(t), n(t), n(t, C), and n(t, NC) are the number of total samples, ‘C’ samples and ‘NC’ samples at node t respectively.Using this with the example training set, the process for finding information gain beginning with H ( t ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} {(t)}} for Mutation 1 is as follows: pC, t = 4/7 pNC, t = 3/7 H ( t ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} {(t)}} = −(4/7 × log2(4/7) + 3/7 × log2(3/7)) = 0.985 Note: H ( t ) {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} {(t)}} will be the same for all mutations at the root. The relatively high value of entropy H ( t ) = 0.985 {\displaystyle \mathrm {H} {(t)}=0.985} (1 is the optimal value) suggests that the root node is highly impure and the constituents of the input at the root node would look like the leftmost figure in the above Entropy Diagram. However, such a set of data is good for learning the attributes of the mutations used to split the node. At a certain node, when the homogeneity of the constituents of the input occurs (as shown in the rightmost figure in the above Entropy Diagram), the dataset would no longer be good for learning. Moving on, the entropy at left and right child nodes of the above decision tree is computed using the formulae:H(tL) = −[pC,L log2(pC,L) + pNC,L log2(pNC,L)]H(tR) = −[pC,R log2(pC,R) + pNC,R log2(pNC,R)]where, probability of selecting a class ‘C’ sample at the left child node, pC,L = n(tL, C) / n(tL), probability of selecting a class ‘NC’ sample at the left child node, pNC,L = n(tL, NC) / n(tL), probability of selecting a class ‘C’ sample at the right child node, pC,R = n(tR, C) / n(tR), prob

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  • Spreading activation

    Spreading activation

    Spreading activation is a method for searching associative networks, biological and artificial neural networks, or semantic networks. The search process is initiated by labeling a set of source nodes (e.g. concepts in a semantic network) with weights or "activation" and then iteratively propagating or "spreading" that activation out to other nodes linked to the source nodes. Most often these "weights" are real values that decay as activation propagates through the network. When the weights are discrete this process is often referred to as marker passing. Activation may originate from alternate paths, identified by distinct markers, and terminate when two alternate paths reach the same node. However brain studies show that several different brain areas play an important role in semantic processing. Spreading activation in semantic networks as a model were invented in cognitive psychology to model the fan out effect. Spreading activation can also be applied in information retrieval, by means of a network of nodes representing documents and terms contained in those documents. == Cognitive psychology == As it relates to cognitive psychology, spreading activation is the theory of how the brain iterates through a network of associated ideas to retrieve specific information. The spreading activation theory presents the array of concepts within our memory as cognitive units, each consisting of a node and its associated elements or characteristics, all connected together by edges. A spreading activation network can be represented schematically, in a sort of web diagram with shorter lines between two nodes meaning the ideas are more closely related and will typically be associated more quickly to the original concept. In memory psychology, the spreading activation model holds that people organize their knowledge of the world based on their personal experiences, which in turn form the network of ideas that is the person's knowledge of the world. When a word (the target) is preceded by an associated word (the prime) in word recognition tasks, participants seem to perform better in the amount of time that it takes them to respond. For instance, subjects respond faster to the word "doctor" when it is preceded by "nurse" than when it is preceded by an unrelated word like "carrot". This semantic priming effect with words that are close in meaning within the cognitive network has been seen in a wide range of tasks given by experimenters, ranging from sentence verification to lexical decision and naming. As another example, if the original concept is "red" and the concept "vehicles" is primed, they are much more likely to say "fire engine" instead of something unrelated to vehicles, such as "cherries". If instead "fruits" was primed, they would likely name "cherries" and continue on from there. The activation of pathways in the network has everything to do with how closely linked two concepts are by meaning, as well as how a subject is primed. == Algorithm == A directed graph is populated by Nodes[ 1...N ] each having an associated activation value A [ i ] which is a real number in the range [0.0 ... 1.0]. A Link[ i, j ] connects source node[ i ] with target node[ j ]. Each edge has an associated weight W [ i, j ] usually a real number in the range [0.0 ... 1.0]. Parameters: Firing threshold F, a real number in the range [0.0 ... 1.0] Decay factor D, a real number in the range [0.0 ... 1.0] Steps: Initialize the graph setting all activation values A [ i ] to zero. Set one or more origin nodes to an initial activation value greater than the firing threshold F. A typical initial value is 1.0. For each unfired node [ i ] in the graph having an activation value A [ i ] greater than the node firing threshold F: For each Link [ i, j ] connecting the source node [ i ] with target node [ j ], adjust A [ j ] = A [ j ] + (A [ i ] W [ i, j ] D) where D is the decay factor. If a target node receives an adjustment to its activation value so that it would exceed 1.0, then set its new activation value to 1.0. Likewise maintain 0.0 as a lower bound on the target node's activation value should it receive an adjustment to below 0.0. Once a node has fired it may not fire again, although variations of the basic algorithm permit repeated firings and loops through the graph. Nodes receiving a new activation value that exceeds the firing threshold F are marked for firing on the next spreading activation cycle. If activation originates from more than one node, a variation of the algorithm permits marker passing to distinguish the paths by which activation is spread over the graph The procedure terminates when either there are no more nodes to fire or in the case of marker passing from multiple origins, when a node is reached from more than one path. Variations of the algorithm that permit repeated node firings and activation loops in the graph, terminate after a steady activation state, with respect to some delta, is reached, or when a maximum number of iterations is exceeded. == Examples ==

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  • Self-play

    Self-play

    Self-play is a technique for improving the performance of reinforcement learning agents. Intuitively, agents learn to improve their performance by playing "against themselves". == Definition and motivation == In multi-agent reinforcement learning experiments, researchers try to optimize the performance of a learning agent on a given task, in cooperation or competition with one or more agents. These agents learn by trial-and-error, and researchers may choose to have the learning algorithm play the role of two or more of the different agents. When successfully executed, this technique has a double advantage: It provides a straightforward way to determine the actions of the other agents, resulting in a meaningful challenge. It increases the amount of experience that can be used to improve the policy, by a factor of two or more, since the viewpoints of each of the different agents can be used for learning. Czarnecki et al argue that most of the games that people play for fun are "Games of Skill", meaning games whose space of all possible strategies looks like a spinning top. In more detail, we can partition the space of strategies into sets L 1 , L 2 , . . . , L n {\displaystyle L_{1},L_{2},...,L_{n}} , such that any i < j , π i ∈ L i , π j ∈ L j {\displaystyle i Read more →

  • Optimal discriminant analysis and classification tree analysis

    Optimal discriminant analysis and classification tree analysis

    Optimal Discriminant Analysis (ODA) and the related classification tree analysis (CTA) are exact statistical methods that maximize predictive accuracy. For any specific sample and exploratory or confirmatory hypothesis, optimal discriminant analysis (ODA) identifies the statistical model that yields maximum predictive accuracy, assesses the exact Type I error rate, and evaluates potential cross-generalizability. Optimal discriminant analysis may be applied to > 0 dimensions, with the one-dimensional case being referred to as UniODA and the multidimensional case being referred to as MultiODA. Optimal discriminant analysis is an alternative to ANOVA (analysis of variance) and regression analysis.

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  • Quantum neural network

    Quantum neural network

    Quantum neural networks are computational neural network models which are based on the principles of quantum mechanics. The first ideas on quantum neural computation were published independently in 1995 by Subhash Kak and Ron Chrisley, engaging with the theory of quantum mind, which posits that quantum effects play a role in cognitive function. However, typical research in quantum neural networks involves combining classical artificial neural network models (which are widely used in machine learning for the important task of pattern recognition) with the advantages of quantum information in order to develop more efficient algorithms. One important motivation for these investigations is the difficulty to train classical neural networks, especially in big data applications. The hope is that features of quantum computing such as quantum parallelism or the effects of interference and entanglement can be used as resources. Since the technological implementation of a quantum computer is still in a premature stage, such quantum neural network models are mostly theoretical proposals that await their full implementation in physical experiments. Most Quantum neural networks are developed as feed-forward networks. Similar to their classical counterparts, this structure intakes input from one layer of qubits, and passes that input onto another layer of qubits. This layer of qubits evaluates this information and passes on the output to the next layer. Eventually the path leads to the final layer of qubits. The layers do not have to be of the same width, meaning they don't have to have the same number of qubits as the layer before or after it. This structure is trained on which path to take similar to classical artificial neural networks. This is discussed in a lower section. Quantum neural networks refer to three different categories: Quantum computer with classical data, classical computer with quantum data, and quantum computer with quantum data. == Examples == Quantum neural network research is still in its infancy, and a conglomeration of proposals and ideas of varying scope and mathematical rigor have been put forward. Most of them are based on the idea of replacing classical binary or McCulloch-Pitts neurons with a qubit (which can be called a "quron"), resulting in neural units that can be in a superposition of the state 'firing' and 'resting'. === Quantum perceptrons === A lot of proposals attempt to find a quantum equivalent for the perceptron unit from which neural nets are constructed. A problem is that nonlinear activation functions do not immediately correspond to the mathematical structure of quantum theory, since a quantum evolution is described by linear operations and leads to probabilistic observation. Ideas to imitate the perceptron activation function with a quantum mechanical formalism reach from special measurements to postulating non-linear quantum operators (a mathematical framework that is disputed). A direct implementation of the activation function using the circuit-based model of quantum computation has recently been proposed by Schuld, Sinayskiy and Petruccione based on the quantum phase estimation algorithm. === Quantum networks === At a larger scale, researchers have attempted to generalize neural networks to the quantum setting. One way of constructing a quantum neuron is to first generalise classical neurons and then generalising them further to make unitary gates. Interactions between neurons can be controlled quantumly, with unitary gates, or classically, via measurement of the network states. This high-level theoretical technique can be applied broadly, by taking different types of networks and different implementations of quantum neurons, such as photonically implemented neurons and quantum reservoir processor (quantum version of reservoir computing). Most learning algorithms follow the classical model of training an artificial neural network to learn the input-output function of a given training set and use classical feedback loops to update parameters of the quantum system until they converge to an optimal configuration. Learning as a parameter optimisation problem has also been approached by adiabatic models of quantum computing. Quantum neural networks can be applied to algorithmic design: given qubits with tunable mutual interactions, one can attempt to learn interactions following the classical backpropagation rule from a training set of desired input-output relations, taken to be the desired output algorithm's behavior. The quantum network thus 'learns' an algorithm. === Quantum associative memory === The first quantum associative memory algorithm was introduced by Dan Ventura and Tony Martinez in 1999. The authors do not attempt to translate the structure of artificial neural network models into quantum theory, but propose an algorithm for a circuit-based quantum computer that simulates associative memory. The memory states (in Hopfield neural networks saved in the weights of the neural connections) are written into a superposition, and a Grover-like quantum search algorithm retrieves the memory state closest to a given input. As such, this is not a fully content-addressable memory, since only incomplete patterns can be retrieved. The first truly content-addressable quantum memory, which can retrieve patterns also from corrupted inputs, was proposed by Carlo A. Trugenberger. Both memories can store an exponential (in terms of n qubits) number of patterns but can be used only once due to the no-cloning theorem and their destruction upon measurement. Trugenberger, however, has shown that his probabilistic model of quantum associative memory can be efficiently implemented and re-used multiples times for any polynomial number of stored patterns, a large advantage with respect to classical associative memories. === Classical neural networks inspired by quantum theory === A substantial amount of interest has been given to a "quantum-inspired" model that uses ideas from quantum theory to implement a neural network based on fuzzy logic. == Training == Quantum Neural Networks can be theoretically trained similarly to training classical/artificial neural networks. A key difference lies in communication between the layers of a neural networks. For classical neural networks, at the end of a given operation, the current perceptron copies its output to the next layer of perceptron(s) in the network. However, in a quantum neural network, where each perceptron is a qubit, this would violate the no-cloning theorem. A proposed generalized solution to this is to replace the classical fan-out method with an arbitrary unitary that spreads out, but does not copy, the output of one qubit to the next layer of qubits. Using this fan-out Unitary ( U f {\displaystyle U_{f}} ) with a dummy state qubit in a known state (Ex. | 0 ⟩ {\displaystyle |0\rangle } in the computational basis), also known as an Ancilla bit, the information from the qubit can be transferred to the next layer of qubits. This process adheres to the quantum operation requirement of reversibility. Using this quantum feed-forward network, deep neural networks can be executed and trained efficiently. A deep neural network is essentially a network with many hidden-layers, as seen in the sample model neural network above. Since the Quantum neural network being discussed uses fan-out Unitary operators, and each operator only acts on its respective input, only two layers are used at any given time. In other words, no Unitary operator is acting on the entire network at any given time, meaning the number of qubits required for a given step depends on the number of inputs in a given layer. Since Quantum Computers are notorious for their ability to run multiple iterations in a short period of time, the efficiency of a quantum neural network is solely dependent on the number of qubits in any given layer, and not on the depth of the network. === Cost functions === To determine the effectiveness of a neural network, a cost function is used, which essentially measures the proximity of the network's output to the expected or desired output. In a Classical Neural Network, the weights ( w {\displaystyle w} ) and biases ( b {\displaystyle b} ) at each step determine the outcome of the cost function C ( w , b ) {\displaystyle C(w,b)} . When training a Classical Neural network, the weights and biases are adjusted after each iteration, and given equation 1 below, where y ( x ) {\displaystyle y(x)} is the desired output and a out ( x ) {\displaystyle a^{\text{out}}(x)} is the actual output, the cost function is optimized when C ( w , b ) {\displaystyle C(w,b)} = 0. For a quantum neural network, the cost function is determined by measuring the fidelity of the outcome state ( ρ out {\displaystyle \rho ^{\text{out}}} ) with the desired outcome state ( ϕ out {\displaystyle \phi ^{\text{out}}} ), seen in Equation 2 below. In this case, the Unitary operators are adjusted after each it

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  • Exposure Notification

    Exposure Notification

    The (Google/Apple) Exposure Notification System (GAEN) is a framework and protocol specification developed by Apple Inc. and Google to facilitate digital contact tracing during the COVID-19 pandemic. When used by health authorities, it augments more traditional contact tracing techniques by automatically logging close approaches among notification system users using Android or iOS smartphones. Exposure Notification is a decentralized reporting protocol built on a combination of Bluetooth Low Energy technology and privacy-preserving cryptography. It is an opt-in feature within COVID-19 apps developed and published by authorized health authorities. Unveiled on April 10, 2020, it was made available on iOS on May 20, 2020, as part of the iOS 13.5 update and on December 14, 2020, as part of the iOS 12.5 update for older iPhones. On Android, it was added to devices via a Google Play Services update, supporting all versions since Android Marshmallow. The Apple/Google protocol is similar to the Decentralized Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing (DP-3T) protocol created by the European DP-3T consortium and the Temporary Contact Number (TCN) protocol by Covid Watch, but is implemented at the operating system level, which allows for more efficient operation as a background process. Since May 2020, a variant of the DP-3T protocol is supported by the Exposure Notification Interface. Other protocols are constrained in operation because they are not privileged over normal apps. This leads to issues, particularly on iOS devices where digital contact tracing apps running in the background experience significantly degraded performance. The joint approach is also designed to maintain interoperability between Android and iOS devices, which constitute nearly all of the market. The ACLU stated the approach "appears to mitigate the worst privacy and centralization risks, but there is still room for improvement". In late April, Google and Apple shifted the emphasis of the naming of the system, describing it as an "exposure notification service", rather than "contact tracing" system. == Technical specification == Digital contact tracing protocols typically have two major responsibilities: encounter logging and infection reporting. Exposure Notification only involves encounter logging which is a decentralized architecture. The majority of infection reporting is centralized in individual app implementations. To handle encounter logging, the system uses Bluetooth Low Energy to send tracking messages to nearby devices running the protocol to discover encounters with other people. The tracking messages contain unique identifiers that are encrypted with a secret daily key held by the sending device. These identifiers change every 15–20 minutes as well as Bluetooth MAC address in order to prevent tracking of clients by malicious third parties through observing static identifiers over time. The sender's daily encryption keys are generated using a random number generator. Devices record received messages, retaining them locally for 14 days. If a user tests positive for infection, the last 14 days of their daily encryption keys can be uploaded to a central server, where it is then broadcast to all devices on the network. The method through which daily encryption keys are transmitted to the central server and broadcast is defined by individual app developers. The Google-developed reference implementation calls for a health official to request a one-time verification code (VC) from a verification server, which the user enters into the encounter logging app. This causes the app to obtain a cryptographically signed certificate, which is used to authorize the submission of keys to the central reporting server. The received keys are then provided to the protocol, where each client individually searches for matches in their local encounter history. If a match meeting certain risk parameters is found, the app notifies the user of potential exposure to the infection. Google and Apple intend to use the received signal strength (RSSI) of the beacon messages as a source to infer proximity. RSSI and other signal metadata will also be encrypted to resist deanonymization attacks. === Version 1.0 === To generate encounter identifiers, first a persistent 32-byte private Tracing Key ( t k {\displaystyle tk} ) is generated by a client. From this a 16 byte Daily Tracing Key is derived using the algorithm d t k i = H K D F ( t k , N U L L , 'CT-DTK' | | D i , 16 ) {\displaystyle dtk_{i}=HKDF(tk,NULL,{\text{'CT-DTK'}}||D_{i},16)} , where H K D F ( Key, Salt, Data, OutputLength ) {\displaystyle HKDF({\text{Key, Salt, Data, OutputLength}})} is a HKDF function using SHA-256, and D i {\displaystyle D_{i}} is the day number for the 24-hour window the broadcast is in starting from Unix Epoch Time. These generated keys are later sent to the central reporting server should a user become infected. From the daily tracing key a 16-byte temporary Rolling Proximity Identifier is generated every 10 minutes with the algorithm R P I i , j = Truncate ( H M A C ( d t k i , 'CT-RPI' | | T I N j ) , 16 ) {\displaystyle RPI_{i,j}={\text{Truncate}}(HMAC(dtk_{i},{\text{'CT-RPI'}}||TIN_{j}),16)} , where H M A C ( Key, Data ) {\displaystyle HMAC({\text{Key, Data}})} is a HMAC function using SHA-256, and T I N j {\displaystyle TIN_{j}} is the time interval number, representing a unique index for every 10 minute period in a 24-hour day. The Truncate function returns the first 16 bytes of the HMAC value. When two clients come within proximity of each other they exchange and locally store the current R P I i , j {\displaystyle RPI_{i,j}} as the encounter identifier. Once a registered health authority has confirmed the infection of a user, the user's Daily Tracing Key for the past 14 days is uploaded to the central reporting server. Clients then download this report and individually recalculate every Rolling Proximity Identifier used in the report period, matching it against the user's local encounter log. If a matching entry is found, then contact has been established and the app presents a notification to the user warning them of potential infection. === Version 1.1 === Unlike version 1.0 of the protocol, version 1.1 does not use a persistent tracing key, rather every day a new random 16-byte Temporary Exposure Key ( t e k i {\displaystyle tek_{i}} ) is generated. This is analogous to the daily tracing key from version 1.0. Here i {\displaystyle i} denotes the time is discretized in 10 minute intervals starting from Unix Epoch Time. From this two 128-bit keys are calculated, the Rolling Proximity Identifier Key ( R P I K i {\displaystyle RPIK_{i}} ) and the Associated Encrypted Metadata Key ( A E M K i {\displaystyle AEMK_{i}} ). R P I K i {\displaystyle RPIK_{i}} is calculated with the algorithm R P I K i = H K D F ( t e k i , N U L L , 'EN-RPIK' , 16 ) {\displaystyle RPIK_{i}=HKDF(tek_{i},NULL,{\text{'EN-RPIK'}},16)} , and A E M K i {\displaystyle AEMK_{i}} using the algorithm A E M K i = H K D F ( t e k i , N U L L , 'EN-AEMK' , 16 ) {\displaystyle AEMK_{i}=HKDF(tek_{i},NULL,{\text{'EN-AEMK'}},16)} . From these values a temporary Rolling Proximity Identifier ( R P I i , j {\displaystyle RPI_{i,j}} ) is generated every time the BLE MAC address changes, roughly every 15–20 minutes. The following algorithm is used: R P I i , j = A E S 128 ( R P I K i , 'EN-RPI' | | 0 x 000000000000 | | E N I N j ) {\displaystyle RPI_{i,j}=AES128(RPIK_{i},{\text{'EN-RPI'}}||{\mathtt {0x000000000000}}||ENIN_{j})} , where A E S 128 ( Key, Data ) {\displaystyle AES128({\text{Key, Data}})} is an AES cryptography function with a 128-bit key, the data is one 16-byte block, j {\displaystyle j} denotes the Unix Epoch Time at the moment the roll occurs, and E N I N j {\displaystyle ENIN_{j}} is the corresponding 10-minute interval number. Next, additional Associated Encrypted Metadata is encrypted. What the metadata represents is not specified, likely to allow the later expansion of the protocol. The following algorithm is used: Associated Encrypted Metadata i , j = A E S 128 _ C T R ( A E M K i , R P I i , j , Metadata ) {\displaystyle {\text{Associated Encrypted Metadata}}_{i,j}=AES128\_CTR(AEMK_{i},RPI_{i,j},{\text{Metadata}})} , where A E S 128 _ C T R ( Key, IV, Data ) {\displaystyle AES128\_CTR({\text{Key, IV, Data}})} denotes AES encryption with a 128-bit key in CTR mode. The Rolling Proximity Identifier and the Associated Encrypted Metadata are then combined and broadcast using BLE. Clients exchange and log these payloads. Once a registered health authority has confirmed the infection of a user, the user's Temporary Exposure Keys t e k i {\displaystyle tek_{i}} and their respective interval numbers i {\displaystyle i} for the past 14 days are uploaded to the central reporting server. Clients then download this report and individually recalculate every Rolling Proximity Identifier starting from interval number i {\displaystyle i} ,

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  • GeWorkbench

    GeWorkbench

    geWorkbench (genomics Workbench) is an open-source software platform for integrated genomic data analysis. It is a desktop application written in the programming language Java. geWorkbench uses a component architecture. As of 2016, there are more than 70 plug-ins available, providing for the visualization and analysis of gene expression, sequence, and structure data. geWorkbench is the Bioinformatics platform of MAGNet, the National Center for the Multi-scale Analysis of Genomic and Cellular Networks, one of the 8 National Centers for Biomedical Computing funded through the NIH Roadmap (NIH Common Fund). Many systems and structure biology tools developed by MAGNet investigators are available as geWorkbench plugins. == Features == Computational analysis tools such as t-test, hierarchical clustering, self-organizing maps, regulatory network reconstruction, BLAST searches, pattern-motif discovery, protein structure prediction, structure-based protein annotation, etc. Visualization of gene expression (heatmaps, volcano plot), molecular interaction networks (through Cytoscape), protein sequence and protein structure data (e.g., MarkUs). Integration of gene and pathway annotation information from curated sources as well as through Gene Ontology enrichment analysis. Component integration through platform management of inputs and outputs. Among data that can be shared between components are expression datasets, interaction networks, sample and marker (gene) sets and sequences. Dataset history tracking - complete record of data sets used and input settings. Integration with 3rd party tools such as GenePattern, Cytoscape, and Genomespace. Demonstrations of each feature described can be found at GeWorkbench-web Tutorials. == Versions == geWorkbench is open-source software that can be downloaded and installed locally. A zip file of the released version Java source is also available. Prepackaged installer versions also exist for Windows, Macintosh, and Linux.

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  • Local tangent space alignment

    Local tangent space alignment

    Local tangent space alignment (LTSA) is a method for manifold learning, which can efficiently learn a nonlinear embedding into low-dimensional coordinates from high-dimensional data, and can also reconstruct high-dimensional coordinates from embedding coordinates. It is based on the intuition that when a manifold is correctly unfolded, all of the tangent hyperplanes to the manifold will become aligned. It begins by computing the k-nearest neighbors of every point. It computes the tangent space at every point by computing the d-first principal components in each local neighborhood. It then optimizes to find an embedding that aligns the tangent spaces, but it ignores the label information conveyed by data samples, and thus can not be used for classification directly.

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  • Tensor product network

    Tensor product network

    A tensor product network, in artificial neural networks, is a network that exploits the properties of tensors to model associative concepts such as variable assignment. Orthonormal vectors are chosen to model the ideas (such as variable names and target assignments), and the tensor product of these vectors construct a network whose mathematical properties allow the user to easily extract the association from it.

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  • Language model benchmark

    Language model benchmark

    A language model benchmark is a standardized test designed to evaluate the performance of language models on various natural language processing tasks. These tests are intended for comparing different models' capabilities in areas such as language understanding, generation, and reasoning. Benchmarks generally consist of a dataset and corresponding evaluation metrics. The dataset provides text samples and annotations, while the metrics measure a model's performance on tasks like answering questions, text classification, and machine translation. These benchmarks are developed and maintained by academic institutions, research organizations, and industry players to track progress in the field. In addition to accuracy, the metrics can include throughput, energy efficiency, bias, trust, and sustainability. == Overview == === Types === Benchmarks may be described by the following adjectives, not mutually exclusive: Classical: These tasks are studied in natural language processing, even before the advent of deep learning. Examples include the Penn Treebank for testing syntactic and semantic parsing, as well as bilingual translation benchmarked by BLEU scores. Question answering: These tasks have a text question and a text answer, often multiple-choice. They can be open-book or closed-book. Open-book QA resembles reading comprehension questions, with relevant passages included as annotation in the question, in which the answer appears. Closed-book QA includes no relevant passages. Closed-book QA is also called open-domain question-answering. Before the era of large language models, open-book QA was more common, and understood as testing information retrieval methods. Closed-book QA became common since GPT-2 as a method to measure knowledge stored within model parameters. Omnibus: An omnibus benchmark combines many benchmarks, often previously published. It is intended as an all-in-one benchmarking solution. Reasoning: These tasks are usually in the question-answering format, but are intended to be more difficult than standard question answering. Multimodal: These tasks require processing not only text, but also other modalities, such as images and sound. Examples include OCR and transcription. Agency: These tasks are for a language-model–based software agent that operates a computer for a user, such as editing images, browsing the web, etc. Adversarial: A benchmark is "adversarial" if the items in the benchmark are picked specifically so that certain models do badly on them. Adversarial benchmarks are often constructed after state of the art (SOTA) models have saturated (achieved 100% performance) a benchmark, to renew the benchmark. A benchmark is "adversarial" only at a certain moment in time, since what is adversarial may cease to be adversarial as newer SOTA models appear. Public/Private: A benchmark might be partly or entirely private, meaning that some or all of the questions are not publicly available. The idea is that if a question is publicly available, then it might be used for training, which would be "training on the test set" and invalidate the result of the benchmark. Usually, only the guardians of the benchmark have access to the private subsets, and to score a model on such a benchmark, one must send the model weights, or provide API access, to the guardians. The boundary between a benchmark and a dataset is not sharp. Generally, a dataset contains three "splits": training, test, and validation. Both the test and validation splits are essentially benchmarks. In general, a benchmark is distinguished from a test/validation dataset in that a benchmark is typically intended to be used to measure the performance of many different models that are not trained specifically for doing well on the benchmark, while a test/validation set is intended to be used to measure the performance of models trained specifically on the corresponding training set. In other words, a benchmark may be thought of as a test/validation set without a corresponding training set. Conversely, certain benchmarks may be used as a training set, such as the English Gigaword or the One Billion Word Benchmark, which in modern language is just the negative log-likelihood loss on a pretraining set with 1 billion words. Indeed, the distinction between benchmark and dataset in language models became sharper after the rise of the pretraining paradigm, whereby a model is first trained on massive, unlabeled datasets to learn general language patterns, syntax, and knowledge (pretraining), and the base model is then adapted to specific, downstream tasks using smaller, labeled datasets (fine-tuning). === Lifecycle === Generally, the life cycle of a benchmark consists of the following steps: Inception: A benchmark is published. It can be simply given as a demonstration of the power of a new model (implicitly) that others then picked up as a benchmark, or as a benchmark that others are encouraged to use (explicitly). Growth: More papers and models use the benchmark, and the performance on the benchmark grows. Maturity, degeneration or deprecation: A benchmark may be saturated, after which researchers move on to other benchmarks. Progress on the benchmark may also be neglected as the field moves to focus on other benchmarks. Renewal: A saturated benchmark can be upgraded to make it no longer saturated, allowing further progress. === Construction === Like datasets, benchmarks are typically constructed by several methods, individually or in combination: Web scraping: Ready-made question-answer pairs may be scraped online, such as from websites that teach mathematics and programming. Conversion: Items may be constructed programmatically from scraped web content, such as by blanking out named entities from sentences, and asking the model to fill in the blank. This was used for making the CNN/Daily Mail Reading Comprehension Task. Crowd sourcing: Items may be constructed by paying people to write them, such as on Amazon Mechanical Turk. This was used for making the MCTest. === Evaluation === Generally, benchmarks are fully automated. This limits the questions that can be asked. For example, with mathematical questions, "proving a claim" would be difficult to automatically check, while "calculate an answer with a unique integer answer" would be automatically checkable. With programming tasks, the answer can generally be checked by running unit tests, with an upper limit on runtime. The benchmark scores are of the following kinds: For multiple choice or cloze questions, common scores are accuracy (frequency of correct answer), precision, recall, F1 score, etc. pass@n: The model is given n {\displaystyle n} attempts to solve each problem. If any attempt is correct, the model earns a point. The pass@n score is the model's average score over all problems. k@n: The model makes n {\displaystyle n} attempts to solve each problem, but only k {\displaystyle k} attempts out of them are selected for submission. If any submission is correct, the model earns a point. The k@n score is the model's average score over all problems. cons@n: The model is given n {\displaystyle n} attempts to solve each problem. If the most common answer is correct, the model earns a point. The cons@n score is the model's average score over all problems. Here "cons" stands for "consensus" or "majority voting". The pass@n score can be estimated more accurately by making N > n {\displaystyle N>n} attempts, and use the unbiased estimator 1 − ( N − c n ) ( N n ) {\displaystyle 1-{\frac {\binom {N-c}{n}}{\binom {N}{n}}}} , where c {\displaystyle c} is the number of correct attempts. For less well-formed tasks, where the output can be any sentence, there are the following commonly used scores including BLEU ROUGE, METEOR, NIST, word error rate, LEPOR, CIDEr, and SPICE. === Issues === error: Some benchmark answers may be wrong. ambiguity: Some benchmark questions may be ambiguously worded. subjective: Some benchmark questions may not have an objective answer at all. This problem generally prevents creative writing benchmarks. Similarly, this prevents benchmarking writing proofs in natural language, though benchmarking proofs in a formal language is possible. open-ended: Some benchmark questions may not have a single answer of a fixed size. This problem generally prevents programming benchmarks from using more natural tasks such as "write a program for X", and instead uses tasks such as "write a function that implements specification X". inter-annotator agreement: Some benchmark questions may be not fully objective, such that even people would not agree with 100% on what the answer should be. This is common in natural language processing tasks, such as syntactic annotation. shortcut: Some benchmark questions may be easily solved by an "unintended" shortcut. For example, in the SNLI benchmark, having a negative word like "not" in the second sentence is a strong signal for the "Contradiction" category, regardless of what the se

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  • Absorbing Markov chain

    Absorbing Markov chain

    In the mathematical theory of probability, an absorbing Markov chain is a Markov chain in which every state can reach an absorbing state. An absorbing state is a state that, once entered, cannot be left. Like general Markov chains, there can be continuous-time absorbing Markov chains with an infinite state space. However, this article concentrates on the discrete-time discrete-state-space case. == Formal definition == A Markov chain is an absorbing chain if there is at least one absorbing state and it is possible to go from any state to at least one absorbing state in a finite number of steps. In an absorbing Markov chain, a state that is not absorbing is called transient. === Canonical form === Let an absorbing Markov chain with transition matrix P have t transient states and r absorbing states. The rows of P represent sources, while columns represent destinations. By ordering the transient states before the absorbing states, it can be assumed that P has the form P = [ Q R 0 I r ] , {\displaystyle P={\begin{bmatrix}Q&R\\\mathbf {0} &I_{r}\end{bmatrix}},} where Q is a t-by-t matrix, R is a nonzero t-by-r matrix, 0 is an r-by-t zero matrix, and Ir is the r-by-r identity matrix. Thus, Q describes the probability of transitioning from some transient state to another while R describes the probability of transitioning from some transient state to some absorbing state. The probability of transitioning from i to j in exactly k steps is the (i,j)-entry of Pk, further computed below. When considering only transient states, the probability is found in the upper left of Pk, the (i,j)-entry of Qk. == Fundamental matrix == === Expected number of visits to a transient state === A basic property about an absorbing Markov chain is the expected number of visits to a transient state j starting from a transient state i (before being absorbed). This can be established to be given by the (i, j) entry of so-called fundamental matrix N, obtained by summing Qk for all k (from 0 to ∞). It can be proven that N := ∑ k = 0 ∞ Q k = ( I t − Q ) − 1 , {\displaystyle N:=\sum _{k=0}^{\infty }Q^{k}=(I_{t}-Q)^{-1},} where It is the t-by-t identity matrix. The computation of this formula is the matrix equivalent of the geometric series of scalars, ∑ k = 0 ∞ q k = 1 1 − q {\displaystyle {\textstyle \sum }_{k=0}^{\infty }q^{k}={\tfrac {1}{1-q}}} . With the matrix N in hand, also other properties of the Markov chain are easy to obtain. === Expected number of steps before being absorbed === The expected number of steps before being absorbed in any absorbing state, when starting in transient state i can be computed via a sum over transient states. The value is given by the ith entry of the vector t := N 1 , {\displaystyle \mathbf {t} :=N\mathbf {1} ,} where 1 is a length-t column vector whose entries are all 1. === Absorbing probabilities === By induction, P k = [ Q k ( I t − Q k ) N R 0 I r ] . {\displaystyle P^{k}={\begin{bmatrix}Q^{k}&(I_{t}-Q^{k})NR\\\mathbf {0} &I_{r}\end{bmatrix}}.} The probability of eventually being absorbed in the absorbing state j when starting from transient state i is given by the (i,j)-entry of the matrix B := N R {\displaystyle B:=NR} . The number of columns of this matrix equals the number of absorbing states r. An approximation of those probabilities can also be obtained directly from the (i,j)-entry of P k {\displaystyle P^{k}} for a large enough value of k, when i is the index of a transient, and j the index of an absorbing state. This is because ( lim k → ∞ P k ) i , t + j = B i , j {\displaystyle \left(\lim _{k\to \infty }P^{k}\right)_{i,t+j}=B_{i,j}} . === Transient visiting probabilities === The probability of visiting transient state j when starting at a transient state i is the (i,j)-entry of the matrix H := ( N − I t ) ( N dg ) − 1 , {\displaystyle H:=(N-I_{t})(N_{\operatorname {dg} })^{-1},} where Ndg is the diagonal matrix with the same diagonal as N. === Variance on number of transient visits === The variance on the number of visits to a transient state j with starting at a transient state i (before being absorbed) is the (i,j)-entry of the matrix N 2 := N ( 2 N dg − I t ) − N sq , {\displaystyle N_{2}:=N(2N_{\operatorname {dg} }-I_{t})-N_{\operatorname {sq} },} where Nsq is the Hadamard product of N with itself (i.e. each entry of N is squared). === Variance on number of steps === The variance on the number of steps before being absorbed when starting in transient state i is the ith entry of the vector ( 2 N − I t ) t − t sq , {\displaystyle (2N-I_{t})\mathbf {t} -\mathbf {t} _{\operatorname {sq} },} where tsq is the Hadamard product of t with itself (i.e., as with Nsq, each entry of t is squared). == Examples == === String generation === Consider the process of repeatedly flipping a fair coin until the sequence (heads, tails, heads) appears. This process is modeled by an absorbing Markov chain with transition matrix P = [ 1 / 2 1 / 2 0 0 0 1 / 2 1 / 2 0 1 / 2 0 0 1 / 2 0 0 0 1 ] . {\displaystyle P={\begin{bmatrix}1/2&1/2&0&0\\0&1/2&1/2&0\\1/2&0&0&1/2\\0&0&0&1\end{bmatrix}}.} The first state represents the empty string, the second state the string "H", the third state the string "HT", and the fourth state the string "HTH". Although in reality, the coin flips cease after the string "HTH" is generated, the perspective of the absorbing Markov chain is that the process has transitioned into the absorbing state representing the string "HTH" and, therefore, cannot leave. For this absorbing Markov chain, the fundamental matrix is N = ( I − Q ) − 1 = ( [ 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 ] − [ 1 / 2 1 / 2 0 0 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 0 0 ] ) − 1 = [ 1 / 2 − 1 / 2 0 0 1 / 2 − 1 / 2 − 1 / 2 0 1 ] − 1 = [ 4 4 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 ] . {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}N&=(I-Q)^{-1}=\left({\begin{bmatrix}1&0&0\\0&1&0\\0&0&1\end{bmatrix}}-{\begin{bmatrix}1/2&1/2&0\\0&1/2&1/2\\1/2&0&0\end{bmatrix}}\right)^{-1}\\[4pt]&={\begin{bmatrix}1/2&-1/2&0\\0&1/2&-1/2\\-1/2&0&1\end{bmatrix}}^{-1}={\begin{bmatrix}4&4&2\\2&4&2\\2&2&2\end{bmatrix}}.\end{aligned}}} The expected number of steps starting from each of the transient states is t = N 1 = [ 4 4 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 ] [ 1 1 1 ] = [ 10 8 6 ] . {\displaystyle \mathbf {t} =N\mathbf {1} ={\begin{bmatrix}4&4&2\\2&4&2\\2&2&2\end{bmatrix}}{\begin{bmatrix}1\\1\\1\end{bmatrix}}={\begin{bmatrix}10\\8\\6\end{bmatrix}}.} Therefore, the expected number of coin flips before observing the sequence (heads, tails, heads) is 10, the entry for the state representing the empty string. === Games of chance === Games based entirely on chance can be modeled by an absorbing Markov chain. A classic example of this is the ancient Indian board game Snakes and Ladders. The graph on the left plots the probability mass in the lone absorbing state that represents the final square as the transition matrix is raised to larger and larger powers. To determine the expected number of turns to complete the game, compute the vector t as described above and examine tstart, which is approximately 39.2. === Infectious disease testing === Infectious disease testing, either of blood products or in medical clinics, is often taught as an example of an absorbing Markov chain. The public U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) model for HIV and for hepatitis B, for example, illustrates the property that absorbing Markov chains can lead to the detection of disease, versus the loss of detection through other means. In the standard CDC model, the Markov chain has five states, a state in which the individual is uninfected, then a state with infected but undetectable virus, a state with detectable virus, and absorbing states of having quit/been lost from the clinic, or of having been detected (the goal). The typical rates of transition between the Markov states are the probability p per unit time of being infected with the virus, w for the rate of window period removal (time until virus is detectable), q for quit/loss rate from the system, and d for detection, assuming a typical rate λ {\displaystyle \lambda } at which the health system administers tests of the blood product or patients in question. It follows that we can "walk along" the Markov model to identify the overall probability of detection for a person starting as undetected, by multiplying the probabilities of transition to each next state of the model as: p ( p + q ) w ( w + q ) d ( d + q ) {\displaystyle {\frac {p}{(p+q)}}{\frac {w}{(w+q)}}{\frac {d}{(d+q)}}} . The subsequent total absolute number of false negative tests—the primary CDC concern—would then be the rate of tests, multiplied by the probability of reaching the infected but undetectable state, times the duration of staying in the infected undetectable state: p ( p + q ) 1 ( w + q ) λ {\displaystyle {\frac {p}{(p+q)}}{\frac {1}{(w+q)}}\lambda } .

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  • Causal Markov condition

    Causal Markov condition

    The Causal Markov (CM) condition states that, conditional on the set of all its direct causes, a node is independent of all variables which are not effects or direct causes of that node. In the event that the structure of a Bayesian network accurately depicts causality, the two conditions are equivalent. This is related to the Markov condition, an assumption made in Bayesian probability theory, that every node in a Bayesian network is conditionally independent of its nondescendants, given its parents. Stated loosely, it is assumed that a node has no bearing on nodes which do not descend from it. In a DAG, this local Markov condition is equivalent to the global Markov condition, which states that d-separations in the graph also correspond to conditional independence relations. This also means that a node is conditionally independent of the entire network, given its Markov blanket. A network may accurately embody the Markov condition without depicting causality, in which case it should not be assumed to embody the causal Markov condition. == Motivation == Statisticians are enormously interested in the ways in which certain events and variables are connected. The precise notion of what constitutes a cause and effect is necessary to understand the connections between them. The central idea behind the philosophical study of probabilistic causation is that causes raise the probabilities of their effects, all else being equal. A deterministic interpretation of causation means that if A causes B, then A must always be followed by B. In this sense, smoking does not cause cancer because some smokers never develop cancer. On the other hand, a probabilistic interpretation simply means that causes raise the probability of their effects. In this sense, changes in meteorological readings associated with a storm do cause that storm, since they raise its probability. (However, simply looking at a barometer does not change the probability of the storm, for a more detailed analysis, see:). == Examples == In a simple view, releasing one's hand from a hammer causes the hammer to fall. However, doing so in outer space does not produce the same outcome, calling into question if releasing one's fingers from a hammer always causes it to fall. A causal graph could be created to acknowledge that both the presence of gravity and the release of the hammer contribute to its falling. However, it would be very surprising if the surface underneath the hammer affected its falling. This essentially states the Causal Markov Condition, that given the existence of gravity the release of the hammer, it will fall regardless of what is beneath it. == Implications == === Dependence and Causation === It follows from the definition that if X and Y are in V and are probabilistically dependent, then either X causes Y, Y causes X, or X and Y are both effects of some common cause Z in V. This definition was seminally introduced by Hans Reichenbach as the Common Cause Principle (CCP). === Screening === It once again follows from the definition that the parents of X screen X from other "indirect causes" of X (parents of Parents(X)) and other effects of Parents(X) which are not also effects of X.

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