Bayesian hierarchical modelling is a statistical model written in multiple levels (hierarchical form) that estimates the posterior distribution of model parameters using the Bayesian method. The sub-models combine to form the hierarchical model, and Bayes' theorem is used to integrate them with the observed data and account for all the uncertainty that is present. This integration enables calculation of updated posterior over the (hyper)parameters, effectively updating prior beliefs in light of the observed data. Frequentist statistics may yield conclusions seemingly incompatible with those offered by Bayesian statistics due to the Bayesian treatment of the parameters as random variables and its use of subjective information in establishing assumptions on these parameters. As the approaches answer different questions the formal results are not technically contradictory but the two approaches disagree over which answer is relevant to particular applications. Bayesians argue that relevant information regarding decision-making and updating beliefs cannot be ignored and that hierarchical modeling has the potential to overrule classical methods in applications where respondents give multiple observational data. Moreover, the model has proven to be robust, with the posterior distribution less sensitive to the more flexible hierarchical priors. Hierarchical modeling, as its name implies, retains nested data structure, and is used when information is available at several different levels of observational units. For example, in epidemiological modeling to describe infection trajectories for multiple countries, observational units are countries, and each country has its own time-based profile of daily infected cases. In decline curve analysis to describe oil or gas production decline curve for multiple wells, observational units are oil or gas wells in a reservoir region, and each well has each own time-based profile of oil or gas production rates (usually, barrels per month). Hierarchical modeling is used to devise computation based strategies for multiparameter problems. == Philosophy == Statistical methods and models commonly involve multiple parameters that can be regarded as related or connected in such a way that the problem implies a dependence of the joint probability model for these parameters. Individual degrees of belief, expressed in the form of probabilities, come with uncertainty. Amidst this is the change of the degrees of belief over time. As was stated by Professor José M. Bernardo and Professor Adrian F. Smith, "The actuality of the learning process consists in the evolution of individual and subjective beliefs about the reality." These subjective probabilities are more directly involved in the mind rather than the physical probabilities. Hence, it is with this need of updating beliefs that Bayesians have formulated an alternative statistical model which takes into account the prior occurrence of a particular event. == Bayes' theorem == The assumed occurrence of a real-world event will typically modify preferences between certain options. This is done by modifying the degrees of belief attached, by an individual, to the events defining the options. Suppose in a study of the effectiveness of cardiac treatments, with the patients in hospital j having survival probability θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} , the survival probability will be updated with the occurrence of y, the event in which a controversial serum is created which, as believed by some, increases survival in cardiac patients. In order to make updated probability statements about θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} , given the occurrence of event y, we must begin with a model providing a joint probability distribution for θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} and y. This can be written as a product of the two distributions that are often referred to as the prior distribution P ( θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta )} and the sampling distribution P ( y ∣ θ ) {\displaystyle P(y\mid \theta )} respectively: P ( θ , y ) = P ( θ ) P ( y ∣ θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta ,y)=P(\theta )P(y\mid \theta )} Using the basic property of conditional probability, the posterior distribution will yield: P ( θ ∣ y ) = P ( θ , y ) P ( y ) = P ( y ∣ θ ) P ( θ ) P ( y ) {\displaystyle P(\theta \mid y)={\frac {P(\theta ,y)}{P(y)}}={\frac {P(y\mid \theta )P(\theta )}{P(y)}}} This equation, showing the relationship between the conditional probability and the individual events, is known as Bayes' theorem. This simple expression encapsulates the technical core of Bayesian inference which aims to deconstruct the probability, P ( θ ∣ y ) {\displaystyle P(\theta \mid y)} , relative to solvable subsets of its supportive evidence. == Exchangeability == The usual starting point of a statistical analysis is the assumption that the n values y 1 , y 2 , … , y n {\displaystyle y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n}} are exchangeable. If no information – other than data y – is available to distinguish any of the θ j {\displaystyle \theta _{j}} 's from any others, and no ordering or grouping of the parameters can be made, one must assume symmetry of prior distribution parameters. This symmetry is represented probabilistically by exchangeability. Generally, it is useful and appropriate to model data from an exchangeable distribution as independently and identically distributed, given some unknown parameter vector θ {\displaystyle \theta } , with distribution P ( θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta )} . === Finite exchangeability === For a fixed number n, the set y 1 , y 2 , … , y n {\displaystyle y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n}} is exchangeable if the joint probability P ( y 1 , y 2 , … , y n ) {\displaystyle P(y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n})} is invariant under permutations of the indices. That is, for every permutation π {\displaystyle \pi } or ( π 1 , π 2 , … , π n ) {\displaystyle (\pi _{1},\pi _{2},\ldots ,\pi _{n})} of (1, 2, …, n), P ( y 1 , y 2 , … , y n ) = P ( y π 1 , y π 2 , … , y π n ) . {\displaystyle P(y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n})=P(y_{\pi _{1}},y_{\pi _{2}},\ldots ,y_{\pi _{n}}).} The following is an exchangeable, but not independent and identical (iid), example: Consider an urn with a red ball and a blue ball inside, with probability 1 2 {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}} of drawing either. Balls are drawn without replacement, i.e. after one ball is drawn from the n {\displaystyle n} balls, there will be n − 1 {\displaystyle n-1} remaining balls left for the next draw. Let Y i = { 1 , if the i th ball is red , 0 , otherwise . {\displaystyle {\text{Let }}Y_{i}={\begin{cases}1,&{\text{if the }}i{\text{th ball is red}},\\0,&{\text{otherwise}}.\end{cases}}} The probability of selecting a red ball in the first draw and a blue ball in the second draw is equal to the probability of selecting a blue ball on the first draw and a red on the second, both of which are 1/2: P ( y 1 = 1 , y 2 = 0 ) = P ( y 1 = 0 , y 2 = 1 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle P(y_{1}=1,y_{2}=0)=P(y_{1}=0,y_{2}=1)={\frac {1}{2}}} . This makes y 1 {\displaystyle y_{1}} and y 2 {\displaystyle y_{2}} exchangeable. But the probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw given that the red ball has already been selected in the first is 0. This is not equal to the probability that the red ball is selected in the second draw, which is 1/2: P ( y 2 = 1 ∣ y 1 = 1 ) = 0 ≠ P ( y 2 = 1 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle P(y_{2}=1\mid y_{1}=1)=0\neq P(y_{2}=1)={\frac {1}{2}}} . Thus, y 1 {\displaystyle y_{1}} and y 2 {\displaystyle y_{2}} are not independent. If x 1 , … , x n {\displaystyle x_{1},\ldots ,x_{n}} are independent and identically distributed, then they are exchangeable, but the converse is not necessarily true. === Infinite exchangeability === Infinite exchangeability is the property that every finite subset of an infinite sequence y 1 {\displaystyle y_{1}} , y 2 , … {\displaystyle y_{2},\ldots } is exchangeable. For any n, the sequence y 1 , y 2 , … , y n {\displaystyle y_{1},y_{2},\ldots ,y_{n}} is exchangeable. == Hierarchical models == === Components === Bayesian hierarchical modeling makes use of two important concepts in deriving the posterior distribution, namely: Hyperparameters: parameters of the prior distribution Hyperpriors: distributions of Hyperparameters Suppose a random variable Y follows a normal distribution with parameter θ {\displaystyle \theta } as the mean and 1 as the variance, that is Y ∣ θ ∼ N ( θ , 1 ) {\displaystyle Y\mid \theta \sim N(\theta ,1)} . The tilde relation ∼ {\displaystyle \sim } can be read as "has the distribution of" or "is distributed as". Suppose also that the parameter θ {\displaystyle \theta } has a distribution given by a normal distribution with mean μ {\displaystyle \mu } and variance 1, i.e. θ ∣ μ ∼ N ( μ , 1 ) {\displaystyle \theta \mid \mu \sim N(\mu ,1)} . Furthermore, μ {\displaystyle \mu } follows another distribution given, for example, by the standard normal distribution, N ( 0 , 1 ) {\displaystyle {\text{N}}(0,1)} . The parameter μ {\dis
Normal distributions transform
The normal distributions transform (NDT) is a point cloud registration algorithm introduced by Peter Biber and Wolfgang Straßer in 2003, while working at University of Tübingen. The algorithm registers two point clouds by first associating a piecewise normal distribution to the first point cloud, that gives the probability of sampling a point belonging to the cloud at a given spatial coordinate, and then finding a transform that maps the second point cloud to the first by maximising the likelihood of the second point cloud on such distribution as a function of the transform parameters. Originally introduced for 2D point cloud map matching in simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) and relative position tracking, the algorithm was extended to 3D point clouds and has wide applications in computer vision and robotics. NDT is very fast and accurate, making it suitable for application to large scale data, but it is also sensitive to initialisation, requiring a sufficiently accurate initial guess, and for this reason it is typically used in a coarse-to-fine alignment strategy. == Formulation == The NDT function associated to a point cloud is constructed by partitioning the space in regular cells. For each cell, it is possible to define the mean q = 1 n ∑ i x i {\displaystyle \textstyle \mathbf {q} ={\frac {1}{n}}\sum _{i}\mathbf {x_{i}} } and covariance S = 1 n ∑ i ( x i − q ) ( x i − q ) ⊤ {\displaystyle \textstyle \mathbf {S} ={\frac {1}{n}}\sum _{i}\left(\mathbf {x} _{i}-\mathbf {q} \right)\left(\mathbf {x} _{i}-\mathbf {q} \right)^{\top }} of the n {\displaystyle n} points of the cloud x 1 , … , x n {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{1},\dots ,\mathbf {x} _{n}} that fall within the cell. The probability density of sampling a point at a given spatial location x {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} } within the cell is then given by the normal distribution e − 1 2 ( x − q ) ⊤ S − 1 ( x − q ) {\displaystyle e^{-{\frac {1}{2}}\left(\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {q} \right)^{\top }\mathbf {S} ^{-1}\left(\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {q} \right)}} . Two point clouds can be mapped by a Euclidean transformation f {\displaystyle f} with rotation matrix R {\displaystyle \mathbf {R} } and translation vector t {\displaystyle \mathbf {t} } f R , t ( x ) = R x + t {\displaystyle f_{\mathbf {R} ,\mathbf {t} }(\mathbf {x} )=\mathbf {R} \mathbf {x} +\mathbf {t} } that maps from the second cloud to the first, parametrised by the rotation angles and translation components. The algorithm registers the two point clouds by optimising the parameters of the transformation that maps the second cloud to the first, with respect to a loss function based on the NDT of the first point cloud, solving the following problem arg min R , t { − ∑ i NDT ( f R , t ( x i ) ) } {\displaystyle \arg \min _{\mathbf {R} ,\mathbf {t} }\left\{-\sum _{i}\operatorname {NDT} \left(f_{\mathbf {R} ,\mathbf {t} }\left(\mathbf {x_{i}} \right)\right)\right\}} where the loss function represents the negated likelihood, obtained by applying the transformation to all points in the second cloud and summing the value of the NDT at each transformed point f R , t ( x ) {\displaystyle f_{\mathbf {R} ,\mathbf {t} }(\mathbf {x} )} . The loss is piecewise continuous and differentiable, and can be optimised with gradient-based methods (in the original formulation, the authors use Newton's method). In order to reduce the effect of cell discretisation, a technique consists of partitioning the space into multiple overlapping grids, shifted by half cell size along the spatial directions, and computing the likelihood at a given location as the sum of the NDTs induced by each grid.
Just This Once
Just This Once is a 1993 romance novel written in the style of Jacqueline Susann by a Macintosh IIcx computer named "Hal" in collaboration with its programmer, Scott French. French reportedly spent $40,000 and 8 years developing an artificial intelligence program to analyze Susann's works and attempt to create a novel that Susann might have written. A legal dispute between the estate of Jacqueline Susann and the publisher resulted in a settlement to split the profits, and the book was referenced in several legal journal articles about copyright laws. The book had two small print runs totaling 35,000 copies, receiving mixed reviews. == Creation == The novel's creation spanned the fields of artificial intelligence, expert systems, and natural language processing. Scott French first scanned and analyzed portions of two books by Jacqueline Susann, Valley of the Dolls and Once Is Not Enough, to determine constituents of Susann's writing style, which French stated was the most difficult task. This analysis extracted several hundred components including frequency and type of sexual acts and sentence structure. "Once you're there, the writer's style emerges, part of her actual personality comes out, and the computer can be programmed to make a story." French also created several thousand rules to govern tone, plotting, scenes, and characters. The text generated by Hal, the computer, was intended to mimic what Susann might have written, although the output required significant editing. French credits Hal's work with "almost 100% of the plot, 100% of the theme and style." French estimates that he wrote 10% of the prose, the computer Hal wrote about 25% of the prose, and the remaining two-thirds was more of a collaboration between the two. A typical scenario to write a scene would involve Hal asking questions that French would answer (for example, Hal might ask about the "cattiness factor" involved in a meeting between two key female characters, and French would reply with a range of 1 to 10), and the computer would then generate a few sentences to which French would make minor edits. The process would repeat for the next few sentences until the scene was written. == Legal issues == Jacqueline Susann's publisher was skeptical of the legality of Just This Once, although French doubted that an author's thought processes could be copyrighted. Susann's estate reportedly threatened to sue Scott French but the parties settled out of court; the settlement involved splitting profits between the parties but the terms of the settlement were not disclosed. The publication of Just This Once raised questions in the legal profession concerning how copyright law applies to computer-generated works derived from an analysis of other copyrighted works, and whether the generation of such works infringes on copyright. The publications on this topic suggested that the copyright laws of the time were ill-equipped to deal with computer-generated creative works. == Reception == The book's publisher Steven Shragis of Carol Group said of the novel, "I'm not going to say this is a great literary work, but it's every bit as good as anything out in this field, and better than an awful lot." The novel received some positive early reviews. In USA Today, novelist Thomas Gifford compared Just This Once to another novel in the same genre, American Star by Jackie Collins. Gifford concluded: "If you do like this stuff, you'd be much, much better off with the one written by the computer." The Dead Jackie Susann Quarterly declared that Susann "would be proud. Lots of money, sleaze, disease, death, oral sex, tragedy and the good girl gone bad." Other reviews were mixed. Publishers Weekly wrote, "If the books of Jacqueline Susann and Harold Robbins seem formulaic, this debut novel of sin and success in Las Vegas outdoes them all. And that, in a way, is the point.... All novelty rests in the conceit of computer authorship, not in the story itself." Library Journal stated "French invested eight years and $50,000 in a scheme to use artificial intelligence to fulfill his authentic, if dubious, desire to generate a trashy novel a la Jacqueline Susann. Shallow, beautiful-people characters are flatly conceived and randomly accessed in a formulaic plot ... a sexy, boring morality tale. Of possible interest to computer buffs for its use of Expert Systems and the virtual promise of more worthy possibilities; others should read Susann." Kirkus Reviews wrote: "The deal here is that author French is not the author, he's just the midwife, having allegedly programmed his computer to write about our times just the way Susann would... almost perfectly capturing glamorous Jackie's turgid but E-Z reading prose style and ultrareliable mix of sex, glitz, dope 'n' despair.... One wonders, though, if French's tale spinning PC will do as well on the talkshows as Jackie did. The computer weenies have been trying to tell us for years, garbage in-garbage out."
MyPertamina
MyPertamina is a digital financial service platform from Pertamina that integrated with the apps LinkAja. This application is used for non-cash fuel oil payments at Pertamina's public fueling stations. == History == Originally, MyPertamina were merchandise outlets of Pertamina products. It was launched on December 21, 2016, with 3 outlets in Jakarta. MyPertamina sells clothes, hats, and other products with Pertamina products brands. One month later (January 2017), Pertamina and Bank Mandiri entered into a partnership to launch the Mandiri Credit Card Pertamina Mastercard product, so that consumers can make payments when users fill up fuel at Pertamina gas stations. In August 2017, MyPertamina app and electronic card were launched through MyPertamina Loyalty program at Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2017. The card can be used on EDC machines for non-cash payments. Initial balances are in its own app, that can be top up by ATMs and online banking.
Dynamic texture
Dynamic texture ( sometimes referred to as temporal texture) is the texture with motion which can be found in videos of sea-waves, fire, smoke, wavy trees, etc. Dynamic texture has a spatially repetitive pattern with time-varying visual pattern. Modeling and analyzing dynamic texture is a topic of images processing and pattern recognition in computer vision. Extracting features that describe the dynamic texture can be utilized for tasks of images sequences classification, segmentation, recognition and retrieval. Comparing with texture found within static images, analyzing dynamic texture is a challenging problem. It is important that the extracted features from dynamic texture combine motion and appearance description, and also be invariance to some transformation such as rotation, translation and illumination. == Analysis methods of dynamic texture == The methods of dynamic texture recognition can categorized as follows: Methods based on optical flow: by applying optical flow to the dynamic texture, velocity with direction and magnitude can be detected and used to recognize the dynamic texture. Due to simplicity of its computation, it is currently the most popular method. Methods computing geometric properties: this methods track the surfaces of motion trajectories in spatiotemporal domain. Methods based on local spatiotemporal filtering : this methods analyze the local spatiotemporal patterns and its orientation and energy and employ them as feature used for classification. Methods based on global spatiotemporal transform: this method characterize the motion at different scale using wavelets that can decompose the motion into local and global. Model-based methods : These methods aims at generating a model to describe the motion by a set of parameters. == Applications == - Segmenting the sequence images of natural scenes. This helps on differentiate between streets and grass alongside these streets which could be used in the application of navigations. - Motion detection : Dynamic texture features extracted from footage videos can be exploited to detect abnormal crowd activities. - Video classification: video of natural scenes or other scenes that exhibit dynamic textures. - Video retrieval : Dynamic textures can be employed as a feature retrieve videos that contain, for example, sea-waves, smoke, clouds, wavy trees.
Autonomous agent
An autonomous agent is an artificial intelligence (AI) system that can perform complex tasks independently. == Definitions == There are various definitions of autonomous agent. According to Brustoloni (1991): "Autonomous agents are systems capable of autonomous, purposeful action in the real world." According to Maes (1995): "Autonomous agents are computational systems that inhabit some complex dynamic environment, sense and act autonomously in this environment, and by doing so realize a set of goals or tasks for which they are designed." Franklin and Graesser (1997) review different definitions and propose their definition: "An autonomous agent is a system situated within and a part of an environment that senses that environment and acts on it, over time, in pursuit of its own agenda and so as to effect what it senses in the future." They explain that: "Humans and some animals are at the high end of being an agent, with multiple, conflicting drives, multiples senses, multiple possible actions, and complex sophisticated control structures. At the low end, with one or two senses, a single action, and an absurdly simple control structure we find a thermostat." == Agent appearance == Lee et al. (2015) post safety issue from how the combination of external appearance and internal autonomous agent have impact on human reaction about autonomous vehicles. Their study explores the human-like appearance agent and high level of autonomy are strongly correlated with social presence, intelligence, safety and trustworthiness. In specific, appearance impacts most on affective trust while autonomy impacts most on both affective and cognitive domain of trust where cognitive trust is characterized by knowledge-based factors and affective trust is largely emotion driven. == Applications == Agentic AI systems: Advanced AI agents that can scope out projects and complete them with necessary tools, representing a significant evolution from simple task-oriented systems. Internet of things (IoT) Integration: Autonomous agents increasingly interact with IoT devices, enabling smart home systems, industrial monitoring, and urban infrastructure management. Collaborative software development: Tools like Cognition AI's Devin aim to create autonomous software engineers capable of complex reasoning, planning, and completing engineering tasks requiring thousands of decisions. Enterprise automation: Business process automation platforms like Salesforce's Agentforce provide autonomous bots for various service functions. == Challenges and considerations == Uncertainty and incomplete information: Autonomous agents must make decisions with limited or uncertain information about their environment and future states. Integration complexity: Incorporating autonomous agents into existing systems and workflows can be technically challenging and resource-intensive. Scalability: As systems become more complex and more agents are used, maintaining coordination and avoiding conflicts becomes increasingly difficult. Trust: Research has shown the combination of external appearance and internal autonomous capabilities significantly impacts human reactions and trust. Lee et al. (2015) found that human-like appearance and high levels of autonomy are strongly correlated with social presence, intelligence, safety, and trustworthiness perceptions. Specifically, appearance impacts affective trust most significantly, while autonomy affects both affective and cognitive trust domains, where affective trust is emotionally driven, and cognitive trust is characterized by knowledge-based factors. Vulnerability to manipulation: Researchers from Harvard, MIT and other educational institutions found that AI agents could become vulnerable to manipulation and could perform detrimental actions in the process of being helpful. == Ethical and regulatory concerns == Accountability: Determining responsibility when autonomous agents make incorrect or harmful decisions remains a complex issue. Privacy and security: autonomous agents often require access to sensitive data, raising concerns about data protection and system security.
Stereo cameras
The stereo cameras approach is a method of distilling a noisy video signal into a coherent data set that a computer can begin to process into actionable symbolic objects, or abstractions. Stereo cameras is one of many approaches used in the broader fields of computer vision and machine vision. == Calculation == In this approach, two cameras with a known physical relationship (i.e. a common field of view the cameras can see, and how far apart their focal points sit in physical space) are correlated via software. By finding mappings of common pixel values, and calculating how far apart these common areas reside in pixel space, a rough depth map can be created. This is very similar to how the human brain uses stereoscopic information from the eyes to gain depth cue information, i.e. how far apart any given object in the scene is from the viewer. The camera attributes must be known, focal length and distance apart etc., and a calibration done. Once this is completed, the systems can be used to sense the distances of objects by triangulation. Finding the same singular physical point in the two left and right images is known as the correspondence problem. Correctly locating the point gives the computer the capability to calculate the distance that the robot or camera is from the object. On the BH2 Lunar Rover the cameras use five steps: a bayer array filter, photometric consistency dense matching algorithm, a Laplace of Gaussian (LoG) edge detection algorithm, a stereo matching algorithm and finally uniqueness constraint. == Uses == This type of stereoscopic image processing technique is used in applications such as 3D reconstruction, robotic control and sensing, crowd dynamics monitoring and off-planet terrestrial rovers; for example, in mobile robot navigation, tracking, gesture recognition, targeting, 3D surface visualization, immersive and interactive gaming. Although the Xbox Kinect sensor is also able to create a depth map of an image, it uses an infrared camera for this purpose, and does not use the dual-camera technique. Other approaches to stereoscopic sensing include time of flight sensors and ultrasound.