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  • ParkMobile

    ParkMobile

    ParkMobile is a mobile and web app providing parking payments in North America. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, users can pay for on-street and off-street parking via app on their smartphone, web browser, or through calling a phone number. ParkMobile also offers parking reservations at stadiums or venues for concerts and sporting events, and in metro area garages. == History == ParkMobile was founded in the United States in 2008 by Albert Bogaard after originally starting in the Netherlands. The initial product served only zone (on-demand) parkers and payment for the parking spot was made via a phone call through an IVR system. In 2009, the ParkMobile app was released and the product launched in its first city, Grand Rapids, Michigan. Parking payments have since been accepted through a user's account by connecting a credit card. ParkMobile deployed in Washington, D.C., in 2011. As of 2023, ParkMobile now has over 50 million users. Parking reservations were introduced in 2017, allowing users to reserve parking in advance. In 2018, the company recapitalized with BMW as the shareholder. ParkMobile was then acquired by a joint venture with BMW and Daimler. Under this joint venture, ParkMobile parking payment functionality was available and integrated with BMW's navigation system in many of its 2018 models. EasyPark Group, the Swedish-based parking solutions company, acquired ParkMobile in 2021 and is the current owner rebranded as Arrive. In 2022, ParkMobile launched in the City of Boston with a city-wide parking app, ParkBoston, powered by ParkMobile. == Operations == === Products === ParkMobile's product offerings include zone (on-demand) parking payments, parking reservations, and a self-service reporting engine. Zone parking is the company's most widely used service. Users can use the app on their smartphone to pay parking fees. In 2017, ParkMobile began offering parking reservations. The service is provided in addition to on-demand parking options at stadiums and venues, as well as metro area parking garages. After launching the reservations feature, ParkMobile became the first mobile parking app provider in North America to have a consolidated app with both on-demand and reservations parking in one. ParkMobile 360, the company's self-service management and reporting platform for operators, launched in 2018. It is a web-based application for parking operators to manage parking inventory, adjust rates, create special parking events, and track analytics. In 2020, ParkMobile began offering an option to pay for parking with Google through integrating the ParkMobile experience with Google Maps In 2021, ParkMobile launched its web application, allowing users to complete their parking transactions directly from the mobile website without having to download the app or have an account. ParkMobile integrates with parking gate equipment so customers can use their app to pay for parking and scan to enter and exit the garage. === Locations === ParkMobile has over 50 million users across the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. The app is available in over 550 cities in the U.S. and over 150 colleges and universities. == Controversies == === Predatory towing and excessive ticketing === Since all paid parking sessions from a single supplier are able to be viewed together, the ease of viewing and enforcing parking violations has caused controversy. Parking Enforcement Services in Birmingham, Alabama, has been the subject complaints by users of the ParkMobile app who had paid for a parking session and still had their vehicle towed. Customers often use old or expired license plates and forget to update to the correct number, or mistype when entering their information into the ParkMobile app. The complaints are that the towing companies offer no lenience for these mistakes. They return to their car as the session expires, and find their car has been towed. Additionally, other municipality across the country have received complaints about excessive parking ticket issuing when inputting their information incorrectly in the ParkMobile app. In Stone Harbor, New Jersey, parking ticket violations increased by over 1,600% from the previous year since launching with the ParkMobile app. Police officers refute complaints of being "too strict" on writing tickets by admitting the ParkMobile system allows officers to "more seamlessly enforce" the city's parking laws. === Data security breach === In March 2021, ParkMobile suffered a cybersecurity incident "linked to a vulnerability in a third-party software," potentially exposing users' email addresses, phone numbers, and license plate numbers. ParkMobile responded by launching an investigation and notifying law enforcement authorities and affected municipalities. The investigation concluded "no sensitive data or Payment Card Information was affected" but ParkMobile confirmed that basic account information, such as license plate numbers and possibly email addresses or phone numbers, was accessed.

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  • Universal approximation theorem

    Universal approximation theorem

    In the field of machine learning, the universal approximation theorems (UATs) state that neural networks with a certain structure can, in principle, approximate any continuous function to any desired degree of accuracy. These theorems provide a mathematical justification for using neural networks, assuring researchers that a sufficiently large or deep network can model the complex, non-linear relationships often found in real-world data. The best-known version of the theorem applies to feedforward networks with a single hidden layer. It states that if the layer's activation function is non-polynomial (which is true for common choices like the sigmoid function or ReLU), then the network can act as a "universal approximator." Universality is achieved by increasing the number of neurons in the hidden layer, making the network "wider." Other versions of the theorem show that universality can also be achieved by keeping the network's width fixed but increasing its number of layers, making it "deeper." These are existence theorems. They guarantee that a network with the right structure exists, but they do not provide a method for finding the network's parameters (training it), nor do they specify exactly how large the network must be for a given function. Finding a suitable network remains a practical challenge that is typically addressed with optimization algorithms like backpropagation. == Setup == Artificial neural networks are combinations of multiple simple mathematical functions that implement more complicated functions from (typically) real-valued vectors to real-valued vectors. The spaces of multivariate functions that can be implemented by a network are determined by the structure of the network, the set of simple functions, and its multiplicative parameters. A great deal of theoretical work has gone into characterizing these function spaces. Most universal approximation theorems are in one of two classes. The first quantifies the approximation capabilities of neural networks with an arbitrary number of artificial neurons ("arbitrary width" case) and the second focuses on the case with an arbitrary number of hidden layers, each containing a limited number of artificial neurons ("arbitrary depth" case). In addition to these two classes, there are also universal approximation theorems for neural networks with bounded number of hidden layers and a limited number of neurons in each layer ("bounded depth and bounded width" case). == History == === Arbitrary width === The first results concerned the arbitrary width case. Ken-ichi Funahashi (May 1989) showed that Rumelhart–Hinton–Williams type backpropagation networks possess universal approximation capability with a class of sigmoidal activation functions, extending the result to multi-output mappings as well. Kurt Hornik, Maxwell Stinchcombe, and Halbert White (July 1989) showed that multilayer feed-forward networks with as few as one hidden layer are universal approximators, provided that the activation function satisfies certain conditions. George Cybenko (December 1989) independently established a related result for sigmoid activation functions using functional-analytic methods. Hornik also showed in 1991 that it is not the specific choice of the activation function but rather the multilayer feed-forward architecture itself that gives neural networks the potential of being universal approximators. Moshe Leshno et al in 1993 and later Allan Pinkus in 1999 showed that the universal approximation property is equivalent to having a nonpolynomial activation function. === Arbitrary depth === The arbitrary depth case was also studied by a number of authors such as Gustaf Gripenberg in 2003, Dmitry Yarotsky, Zhou Lu et al in 2017, Boris Hanin and Mark Sellke in 2018 who focused on neural networks with ReLU activation function. In 2020, Patrick Kidger and Terry Lyons extended those results to neural networks with general activation functions such, e.g. tanh or GeLU. One special case of arbitrary depth is that each composition component comes from a finite set of mappings. In 2024, Cai constructed a finite set of mappings, named a vocabulary, such that any continuous function can be approximated by compositing a sequence from the vocabulary. This is similar to the concept of compositionality in linguistics, which is the idea that a finite vocabulary of basic elements can be combined via grammar to express an infinite range of meanings. === Bounded depth and bounded width === The bounded depth and bounded width case was first studied by Maiorov and Pinkus in 1999. They showed that there exists an analytic sigmoidal activation function such that two hidden layer neural networks with bounded number of units in hidden layers are universal approximators. In 2018, Guliyev and Ismailov constructed a smooth sigmoidal activation function providing universal approximation property for two hidden layer feedforward neural networks with fewer units in hidden layers. In 2018, they also constructed single hidden layer networks with bounded width that are still universal approximators for univariate functions. However, this does not apply for multivariable functions. In 2022, Shen et al. obtained precise quantitative information on the depth and width required to approximate a target function by deep and wide ReLU neural networks. === Quantitative bounds === The question of minimal possible width for universality was first studied in 2021, Park et al obtained the minimum width required for the universal approximation of Lp functions using feed-forward neural networks with ReLU as activation functions. Similar results that can be directly applied to residual neural networks were also obtained in the same year by Paulo Tabuada and Bahman Gharesifard using control-theoretic arguments. In 2023, Cai obtained the optimal minimum width bound for the universal approximation. For the arbitrary depth case, Leonie Papon and Anastasis Kratsios derived explicit depth estimates depending on the regularity of the target function and of the activation function. === Kolmogorov network === The Kolmogorov–Arnold representation theorem is similar in spirit. Indeed, certain neural network families can directly apply the Kolmogorov–Arnold theorem to yield a universal approximation theorem. Robert Hecht-Nielsen showed that a three-layer neural network can approximate any continuous multivariate function. This was extended to the discontinuous case by Vugar Ismailov. In 2024, Ziming Liu and co-authors showed a practical application. === Reservoir computing and quantum reservoir computing === In reservoir computing a sparse recurrent neural network with fixed weights equipped of fading memory and echo state property is followed by a trainable output layer. Its universality has been demonstrated separately for what concerns networks of rate neurons and spiking neurons, respectively. In 2024, the framework has been generalized and extended to quantum reservoirs where the reservoir is based on qubits defined over Hilbert spaces. === Variants === Variants include discontinuous activation functions, noncompact domains, certifiable networks, random neural networks, and alternative network architectures and topologies. The universal approximation property of width-bounded networks has been studied as a dual of classical universal approximation results on depth-bounded networks. For input dimension d x {\displaystyle d_{x}} and output dimension d y {\displaystyle d_{y}} the minimum width required for the universal approximation of the Lp functions is exactly m a x { d x + 1 , d y } {\displaystyle max\{d_{x}+1,d_{y}\}} (for a ReLU network). More generally this also holds if both ReLU and a threshold activation function are used. Universal function approximation on graphs (or rather on graph isomorphism classes) by popular graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs or GNNs) can be made as discriminative as the Weisfeiler–Leman graph isomorphism test. In 2020, a universal approximation theorem result was established by Brüel-Gabrielsson, showing that graph representation with certain injective properties is sufficient for universal function approximation on bounded graphs and restricted universal function approximation on unbounded graphs, with an accompanying O ( | V | ⋅ | E | ) {\displaystyle {\mathcal {O}}(\left|V\right|\cdot \left|E\right|)} -runtime method that performed at state of the art on a collection of benchmarks (where V {\displaystyle V} and E {\displaystyle E} are the sets of nodes and edges of the graph respectively). There are also a variety of results between non-Euclidean spaces and other commonly used architectures and, more generally, algorithmically generated sets of functions, such as the convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture, radial basis functions, or neural networks with specific properties. == Arbitrary-width case == A universal approximation theorem formally states that a family of neural network funct

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  • Random neural network

    Random neural network

    The Random Neural Network (RNN) is a mathematical representation of an interconnected network of neurons or cells which exchange spiking signals. It was invented by Erol Gelenbe and is linked to the G-network model of queueing networks which Erol Gelenbe also invented, and with his Gene Regulatory Network models. In this model, each neuronal cell state is represented by an integer whose value rises when the cell receives an excitatory spike and drops when it receives an inhibitory spike. The spikes can originate outside the network itself, or they can come from other cells in the networks. Cells whose internal excitatory state has a positive value are allowed to send out spikes of either kind to other cells in the network according to specific cell-dependent spiking rates. The model has a mathematical solution in steady-state which provides the joint probability distribution of the network in terms of the individual probabilities that each cell is excited and able to send out spikes. Computing this solution is based on solving a set of non-linear algebraic equations whose parameters are related to the spiking rates of individual cells and their connectivity to other cells, as well as the arrival rates of spikes from outside the network. The RNN is a recurrent model, i.e. a neural network that is allowed to have complex feedback loops. A highly energy-efficient implementation of random neural networks was demonstrated by Krishna Palem et al. using the Probabilistic CMOS or PCMOS technology and was shown to be c. 226–300 times more efficient in terms of Energy-Performance-Product. RNNs are also related to artificial neural networks, which (like the random neural network) have gradient-based learning algorithms. The learning algorithm for an n-node random neural network that includes feedback loops (it is also a recurrent neural network) is of computational complexity O(n^3) (the number of computations is proportional to the cube of n, the number of neurons). The random neural network can also be used with other learning algorithms such as reinforcement learning. The RNN has been shown to be a universal approximator for bounded and continuous functions.

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  • Plate notation

    Plate notation

    In Bayesian inference, plate notation is a method of representing variables that repeat in a graphical model. Instead of drawing each repeated variable individually, a plate or rectangle is used to group variables into a subgraph that repeat together, and a number is drawn on the plate to represent the number of repetitions of the subgraph in the plate. The assumptions are that the subgraph is duplicated that many times, the variables in the subgraph are indexed by the repetition number, and any links that cross a plate boundary are replicated once for each subgraph repetition. == Example == In this example, we consider Latent Dirichlet allocation, a Bayesian network that models how documents in a corpus are topically related. There are two variables not in any plate; α is the parameter of the uniform Dirichlet prior on the per-document topic distributions, and β is the parameter of the uniform Dirichlet prior on the per-topic word distribution. The outermost plate represents all the variables related to a specific document, including θ i {\displaystyle \theta _{i}} , the topic distribution for document i. The M in the corner of the plate indicates that the variables inside are repeated M times, once for each document. The inner plate represents the variables associated with each of the N i {\displaystyle N_{i}} words in document i: z i j {\displaystyle z_{ij}} is the topic distribution for the jth word in document i, and w i j {\displaystyle w_{ij}} is the actual word used. The N in the corner represents the repetition of the variables in the inner plate N j {\displaystyle N_{j}} times, once for each word in document i. The circle representing the individual words is shaded, indicating that each w i j {\displaystyle w_{ij}} is observable, and the other circles are empty, indicating that the other variables are latent variables. The directed edges between variables indicate dependencies between the variables: for example, each w i j {\displaystyle w_{ij}} depends on z i j {\displaystyle z_{ij}} and β. == Extensions == A number of extensions have been created by various authors to express more information than simply the conditional relationships. However, few of these have become standard. Perhaps the most commonly used extension is to use rectangles in place of circles to indicate non-random variables—either parameters to be computed, hyperparameters given a fixed value (or computed through empirical Bayes), or variables whose values are computed deterministically from a random variable. The diagram on the right shows a few more non-standard conventions used in some articles in Wikipedia (e.g. variational Bayes): Variables that are actually random vectors are indicated by putting the vector size in brackets in the middle of the node. Variables that are actually random matrices are similarly indicated by putting the matrix size in brackets in the middle of the node, with commas separating row size from column size. Categorical variables are indicated by placing their size (without a bracket) in the middle of the node. Categorical variables that act as "switches", and which pick one or more other random variables to condition on from a large set of such variables (e.g. mixture components), are indicated with a special type of arrow containing a squiggly line and ending in a T junction. Boldface is consistently used for vector or matrix nodes (but not categorical nodes). == Software implementation == Plate notation has been implemented in various TeX/LaTeX drawing packages, but also as part of graphical user interfaces to Bayesian statistics programs such as BUGS and BayesiaLab and PyMC.

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  • Google Clips

    Google Clips

    Google Clips is a discontinued miniature clip-on camera device developed by Google. == History == It was announced on October 4, 2017 and went on sale on January 27, 2018. Google Clips automatically captured video clips (without audio) at moments its machine learning algorithms determined to be interesting or relevant. An indicator flashed when the camera was looking for scenes to capture. Google Clips' artificial intelligence (AI) could learn the faces of people to take photographs with certain people, and could automatically set lighting and framing. It had 16 GB of storage built-in storage and could record clips for up to 3 hours. This camera was originally priced at US$249 in the United States. It was withdrawn from sale on October 15, 2019, but supported until the end of December 2021. == Reception == The Independent wrote that Google Clips is "an impressive little device, but one that also has the potential to feel very creepy." According to The Verge's generally negative review, "it didn't capture anything special" over two weeks of testing.

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  • Liquid state machine

    Liquid state machine

    A liquid state machine (LSM) is a type of reservoir computer that uses a spiking neural network. An LSM consists of a large collection of units (called nodes, or neurons). Each node receives time varying input from external sources (the inputs) as well as from other nodes. Nodes are randomly connected to each other. The recurrent nature of the connections turns the time varying input into a spatio-temporal pattern of activations in the network nodes. The spatio-temporal patterns of activation are read out by linear discriminant units. The soup of recurrently connected nodes will end up computing a large variety of nonlinear functions on the input. Given a large enough variety of such nonlinear functions, it is theoretically possible to obtain linear combinations (using the read out units) to perform whatever mathematical operation is needed to perform a certain task, such as speech recognition or computer vision. The word liquid in the name comes from the analogy drawn to dropping a stone into a still body of water or other liquid. The falling stone will generate ripples in the liquid. The input (motion of the falling stone) has been converted into a spatio-temporal pattern of liquid displacement (ripples). LSMs have been put forward as a way to explain the operation of brains. LSMs are argued to be an improvement over the theory of artificial neural networks because: Circuits are not hard coded to perform a specific task. Continuous time inputs are handled "naturally". Computations on various time scales can be done using the same network. The same network can perform multiple computations. Criticisms of LSMs as used in computational neuroscience are that LSMs don't actually explain how the brain functions. At best they can replicate some parts of brain functionality. There is no guaranteed way to dissect a working network and figure out how or what computations are being performed. There is very little control over the process. == Universal function approximation == If a reservoir has fading memory and input separability, with help of a readout, it can be proven the liquid state machine is a universal function approximator using Stone–Weierstrass theorem.

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  • Occam learning

    Occam learning

    In computational learning theory, Occam learning is a model of algorithmic learning where the objective of the learner is to output a succinct representation of received training data. This is closely related to probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, where the learner is evaluated on its predictive power of a test set. Occam learnability implies PAC learning, and for a wide variety of concept classes, the converse is also true: PAC learnability implies Occam learnability. == Introduction == Occam Learning is named after Occam's razor, which is a principle stating that, given all other things being equal, a shorter explanation for observed data should be favored over a lengthier explanation. The theory of Occam learning is a formal and mathematical justification for this principle. It was first shown by Blumer, et al. that Occam learning implies PAC learning, which is the standard model of learning in computational learning theory. In other words, parsimony (of the output hypothesis) implies predictive power. == Definition of Occam learning == The succinctness of a concept c {\displaystyle c} in concept class C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} can be expressed by the length s i z e ( c ) {\displaystyle size(c)} of the shortest bit string that can represent c {\displaystyle c} in C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} . Occam learning connects the succinctness of a learning algorithm's output to its predictive power on unseen data. Let C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} and H {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}} be concept classes containing target concepts and hypotheses respectively. Then, for constants α ≥ 0 {\displaystyle \alpha \geq 0} and 0 ≤ β < 1 {\displaystyle 0\leq \beta <1} , a learning algorithm L {\displaystyle L} is an ( α , β ) {\displaystyle (\alpha ,\beta )} -Occam algorithm for C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} using H {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}} iff, given a set S = { x 1 , … , x m } {\displaystyle S=\{x_{1},\dots ,x_{m}\}} of m {\displaystyle m} samples labeled according to a concept c ∈ C {\displaystyle c\in {\mathcal {C}}} , L {\displaystyle L} outputs a hypothesis h ∈ H {\displaystyle h\in {\mathcal {H}}} such that h {\displaystyle h} is consistent with c {\displaystyle c} on S {\displaystyle S} (that is, h ( x ) = c ( x ) , ∀ x ∈ S {\displaystyle h(x)=c(x),\forall x\in S} ), and s i z e ( h ) ≤ ( n ⋅ s i z e ( c ) ) α m β {\displaystyle size(h)\leq (n\cdot size(c))^{\alpha }m^{\beta }} where n {\displaystyle n} is the maximum length of any sample x ∈ S {\displaystyle x\in S} . An Occam algorithm is called efficient if it runs in time polynomial in n {\displaystyle n} , m {\displaystyle m} , and s i z e ( c ) . {\displaystyle size(c).} We say a concept class C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} is Occam learnable with respect to a hypothesis class H {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}} if there exists an efficient Occam algorithm for C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} using H . {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}.} == The relation between Occam and PAC learning == Occam learnability implies PAC learnability, as the following theorem of Blumer, et al. shows: === Theorem (Occam learning implies PAC learning) === Let L {\displaystyle L} be an efficient ( α , β ) {\displaystyle (\alpha ,\beta )} -Occam algorithm for C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} using H {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}} . Then there exists a constant a > 0 {\displaystyle a>0} such that for any 0 < ϵ , δ < 1 {\displaystyle 0<\epsilon ,\delta <1} , for any distribution D {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}} , given m ≥ a ( 1 ϵ log ⁡ 1 δ + ( ( n ⋅ s i z e ( c ) ) α ϵ ) 1 1 − β ) {\displaystyle m\geq a\left({\frac {1}{\epsilon }}\log {\frac {1}{\delta }}+\left({\frac {(n\cdot size(c))^{\alpha }}{\epsilon }}\right)^{\frac {1}{1-\beta }}\right)} samples drawn from D {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}} and labelled according to a concept c ∈ C {\displaystyle c\in {\mathcal {C}}} of length n {\displaystyle n} bits each, the algorithm L {\displaystyle L} will output a hypothesis h ∈ H {\displaystyle h\in {\mathcal {H}}} such that e r r o r ( h ) ≤ ϵ {\displaystyle error(h)\leq \epsilon } with probability at least 1 − δ {\displaystyle 1-\delta } .Here, e r r o r ( h ) {\displaystyle error(h)} is with respect to the concept c {\displaystyle c} and distribution D {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}} . This implies that the algorithm L {\displaystyle L} is also a PAC learner for the concept class C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} using hypothesis class H {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}} . A slightly more general formulation is as follows: === Theorem (Occam learning implies PAC learning, cardinality version) === Let 0 < ϵ , δ < 1 {\displaystyle 0<\epsilon ,\delta <1} . Let L {\displaystyle L} be an algorithm such that, given m {\displaystyle m} samples drawn from a fixed but unknown distribution D {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}} and labeled according to a concept c ∈ C {\displaystyle c\in {\mathcal {C}}} of length n {\displaystyle n} bits each, outputs a hypothesis h ∈ H n , m {\displaystyle h\in {\mathcal {H}}_{n,m}} that is consistent with the labeled samples. Then, there exists a constant b {\displaystyle b} such that if log ⁡ | H n , m | ≤ b ϵ m − log ⁡ 1 δ {\displaystyle \log |{\mathcal {H}}_{n,m}|\leq b\epsilon m-\log {\frac {1}{\delta }}} , then L {\displaystyle L} is guaranteed to output a hypothesis h ∈ H n , m {\displaystyle h\in {\mathcal {H}}_{n,m}} such that e r r o r ( h ) ≤ ϵ {\displaystyle error(h)\leq \epsilon } with probability at least 1 − δ {\displaystyle 1-\delta } . While the above theorems show that Occam learning is sufficient for PAC learning, it doesn't say anything about necessity. Board and Pitt show that, for a wide variety of concept classes, Occam learning is in fact necessary for PAC learning. They proved that for any concept class that is polynomially closed under exception lists, PAC learnability implies the existence of an Occam algorithm for that concept class. Concept classes that are polynomially closed under exception lists include Boolean formulas, circuits, deterministic finite automata, decision-lists, decision-trees, and other geometrically defined concept classes. A concept class C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {C}}} is polynomially closed under exception lists if there exists a polynomial-time algorithm A {\displaystyle A} such that, when given the representation of a concept c ∈ C {\displaystyle c\in {\mathcal {C}}} and a finite list E {\displaystyle E} of exceptions, outputs a representation of a concept c ′ ∈ C {\displaystyle c'\in {\mathcal {C}}} such that the concepts c {\displaystyle c} and c ′ {\displaystyle c'} agree except on the set E {\displaystyle E} . == Proof that Occam learning implies PAC learning == We first prove the Cardinality version. Call a hypothesis h ∈ H {\displaystyle h\in {\mathcal {H}}} bad if e r r o r ( h ) ≥ ϵ {\displaystyle error(h)\geq \epsilon } , where again e r r o r ( h ) {\displaystyle error(h)} is with respect to the true concept c {\displaystyle c} and the underlying distribution D {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}} . The probability that a set of samples S {\displaystyle S} is consistent with h {\displaystyle h} is at most ( 1 − ϵ ) m {\displaystyle (1-\epsilon )^{m}} , by the independence of the samples. By the union bound, the probability that there exists a bad hypothesis in H n , m {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}_{n,m}} is at most | H n , m | ( 1 − ϵ ) m {\displaystyle |{\mathcal {H}}_{n,m}|(1-\epsilon )^{m}} , which is less than δ {\displaystyle \delta } if log ⁡ | H n , m | ≤ O ( ϵ m ) − log ⁡ 1 δ {\displaystyle \log |{\mathcal {H}}_{n,m}|\leq O(\epsilon m)-\log {\frac {1}{\delta }}} . This concludes the proof of the second theorem above. Using the second theorem, we can prove the first theorem. Since we have a ( α , β ) {\displaystyle (\alpha ,\beta )} -Occam algorithm, this means that any hypothesis output by L {\displaystyle L} can be represented by at most ( n ⋅ s i z e ( c ) ) α m β {\displaystyle (n\cdot size(c))^{\alpha }m^{\beta }} bits, and thus log ⁡ | H n , m | ≤ ( n ⋅ s i z e ( c ) ) α m β {\displaystyle \log |{\mathcal {H}}_{n,m}|\leq (n\cdot size(c))^{\alpha }m^{\beta }} . This is less than O ( ϵ m ) − log ⁡ 1 δ {\displaystyle O(\epsilon m)-\log {\frac {1}{\delta }}} if we set m ≥ a ( 1 ϵ log ⁡ 1 δ + ( ( n ⋅ s i z e ( c ) ) α ) ϵ ) 1 1 − β ) {\displaystyle m\geq a\left({\frac {1}{\epsilon }}\log {\frac {1}{\delta }}+\left({\frac {(n\cdot size(c))^{\alpha })}{\epsilon }}\right)^{\frac {1}{1-\beta }}\right)} for some constant a > 0 {\displaystyle a>0} . Thus, by the Cardinality version Theorem, L {\displaystyle L} will output a consistent hypothesis h {\displaystyle h} with probability at least 1 − δ {\displaystyle 1-\delta } . This concludes the proof of the first theorem above. == Improving sample complexity for common problems == Though Occam and PAC learnability are equivalent, the Occam framework can be used to produce tighter bounds on the sample complexity of classical problems including conjunctions, co

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  • Tensor product network

    Tensor product network

    A tensor product network, in artificial neural networks, is a network that exploits the properties of tensors to model associative concepts such as variable assignment. Orthonormal vectors are chosen to model the ideas (such as variable names and target assignments), and the tensor product of these vectors construct a network whose mathematical properties allow the user to easily extract the association from it.

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  • Inferential theory of learning

    Inferential theory of learning

    Inferential Theory of Learning (ITL) is an area of machine learning which describes inferential processes performed by learning agents. ITL has been continuously developed by Ryszard S. Michalski, starting in the 1980s. The first known publication of ITL was in 1983. In the ITL learning process is viewed as a search (inference) through hypotheses space guided by a specific goal. The results of learning need to be stored. Stored information will later be used by the learner for future inferences. Inferences are split into multiple categories including conclusive, deduction, and induction. In order for an inference to be considered complete it was required that all categories must be taken into account. This is how the ITL varies from other machine learning theories like Computational Learning Theory and Statistical Learning Theory; which both use singular forms of inference. == Usage == The most relevant published usage of ITL was in scientific journal published in 2012 and used ITL as a way to describe how agent-based learning works. According to the journal "The Inferential Theory of Learning (ITL) provides an elegant way of describing learning processes by agents".

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  • Recursive neural network

    Recursive neural network

    A recursive neural network is a kind of deep neural network created by applying the same set of weights recursively over a structured input, to produce a structured prediction over variable-size input structures, or a scalar prediction on it, by traversing a given structure in topological order. These networks were first introduced to learn distributed representations of structure (such as logical terms), but have been successful in multiple applications, for instance in learning sequence and tree structures in natural language processing (mainly continuous representations of phrases and sentences based on word embeddings). == Architectures == === Basic === In the simplest architecture, nodes are combined into parents using a weight matrix (which is shared across the whole network) and a non-linearity such as the tanh {\displaystyle \tanh } hyperbolic function. If c 1 {\displaystyle c_{1}} and c 2 {\displaystyle c_{2}} are n {\displaystyle n} -dimensional vector representations of nodes, their parent will also be an n {\displaystyle n} -dimensional vector, defined as: p 1 , 2 = tanh ⁡ ( W [ c 1 ; c 2 ] ) {\displaystyle p_{1,2}=\tanh(W[c_{1};c_{2}])} where W {\displaystyle W} is a learned n × 2 n {\displaystyle n\times 2n} weight matrix. This architecture, with a few improvements, has been used for successfully parsing natural scenes, syntactic parsing of natural language sentences, and recursive autoencoding and generative modeling of 3D shape structures in the form of cuboid abstractions. === Recursive cascade correlation (RecCC) === RecCC is a constructive neural network approach to deal with tree domains with pioneering applications to chemistry and extension to directed acyclic graphs. === Unsupervised RNN === A framework for unsupervised RNN has been introduced in 2004. === Tensor === Recursive neural tensor networks use a single tensor-based composition function for all nodes in the tree. == Training == === Stochastic gradient descent === Typically, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is used to train the network. The gradient is computed using backpropagation through structure (BPTS), a variant of backpropagation through time used for recurrent neural networks. == Properties == The universal approximation capability of RNNs over trees has been proved in literature. == Related models == === Recurrent neural networks === Recurrent neural networks are recursive artificial neural networks with a certain structure: that of a linear chain. Whereas recursive neural networks operate on any hierarchical structure, combining child representations into parent representations, recurrent neural networks operate on the linear progression of time, combining the previous time step and a hidden representation into the representation for the current time step. === Tree Echo State Networks === An efficient approach to implement recursive neural networks is given by the Tree Echo State Network within the reservoir computing paradigm. === Extension to graphs === Extensions to graphs include graph neural network (GNN), Neural Network for Graphs (NN4G), and more recently convolutional neural networks for graphs.

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  • Elastic map

    Elastic map

    Elastic maps provide a tool for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. By their construction, they are a system of elastic springs embedded in the data space. This system approximates a low-dimensional manifold. The elastic coefficients of this system allow the switch from completely unstructured k-means clustering (zero elasticity) to the estimators located closely to linear PCA manifolds (for high bending and low stretching modules). With some intermediate values of the elasticity coefficients, this system effectively approximates non-linear principal manifolds. This approach is based on a mechanical analogy between principal manifolds, that are passing through "the middle" of the data distribution, and elastic membranes and plates. The method was developed by A.N. Gorban, A.Y. Zinovyev and A.A. Pitenko in 1996–1998. == Energy of elastic map == Let S {\displaystyle {\mathcal {S}}} be a data set in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. Elastic map is represented by a set of nodes w j {\displaystyle {\bf {w}}_{j}} in the same space. Each datapoint s ∈ S {\displaystyle s\in {\mathcal {S}}} has a host node, namely the closest node w j {\displaystyle {\bf {w}}_{j}} (if there are several closest nodes then one takes the node with the smallest number). The data set S {\displaystyle {\mathcal {S}}} is divided into classes K j = { s | w j is a host of s } {\displaystyle K_{j}=\{s\ |\ {\bf {w}}_{j}{\mbox{ is a host of }}s\}} . The approximation energy D is the distortion D = 1 2 ∑ j = 1 k ∑ s ∈ K j ‖ s − w j ‖ 2 {\displaystyle D={\frac {1}{2}}\sum _{j=1}^{k}\sum _{s\in K_{j}}\|s-{\bf {w}}_{j}\|^{2}} , which is the energy of the springs with unit elasticity which connect each data point with its host node. It is possible to apply weighting factors to the terms of this sum, for example to reflect the standard deviation of the probability density function of any subset of data points { s i } {\displaystyle \{s_{i}\}} . On the set of nodes an additional structure is defined. Some pairs of nodes, ( w i , w j ) {\displaystyle ({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j})} , are connected by elastic edges. Call this set of pairs E {\displaystyle E} . Some triplets of nodes, ( w i , w j , w k ) {\displaystyle ({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j},{\bf {w}}_{k})} , form bending ribs. Call this set of triplets G {\displaystyle G} . The stretching energy is U E = 1 2 λ ∑ ( w i , w j ) ∈ E ‖ w i − w j ‖ 2 {\displaystyle U_{E}={\frac {1}{2}}\lambda \sum _{({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j})\in E}\|{\bf {w}}_{i}-{\bf {w}}_{j}\|^{2}} , The bending energy is U G = 1 2 μ ∑ ( w i , w j , w k ) ∈ G ‖ w i − 2 w j + w k ‖ 2 {\displaystyle U_{G}={\frac {1}{2}}\mu \sum _{({\bf {w}}_{i},{\bf {w}}_{j},{\bf {w}}_{k})\in G}\|{\bf {w}}_{i}-2{\bf {w}}_{j}+{\bf {w}}_{k}\|^{2}} , where λ {\displaystyle \lambda } and μ {\displaystyle \mu } are the stretching and bending moduli respectively. The stretching energy is sometimes referred to as the membrane, while the bending energy is referred to as the thin plate term. For example, on the 2D rectangular grid the elastic edges are just vertical and horizontal edges (pairs of closest vertices) and the bending ribs are the vertical or horizontal triplets of consecutive (closest) vertices. The total energy of the elastic map is thus U = D + U E + U G . {\displaystyle U=D+U_{E}+U_{G}.} The position of the nodes { w j } {\displaystyle \{{\bf {w}}_{j}\}} is determined by the mechanical equilibrium of the elastic map, i.e. its location is such that it minimizes the total energy U {\displaystyle U} . == Expectation-maximization algorithm == For a given splitting of dataset S {\displaystyle {\mathcal {S}}} in classes K j {\displaystyle K_{j}} , minimization of the quadratic functional U {\displaystyle U} is a linear problem with the sparse matrix of coefficients. Therefore, similar to principal component analysis or k-means, a splitting method is used: For given { w j } {\displaystyle \{{\bf {w}}_{j}\}} find { K j } {\displaystyle \{K_{j}\}} ; For given { K j } {\displaystyle \{K_{j}\}} minimize U {\displaystyle U} and find { w j } {\displaystyle \{{\bf {w}}_{j}\}} ; If no change, terminate. This expectation-maximization algorithm guarantees a local minimum of U {\displaystyle U} . For improving the approximation various additional methods are proposed. For example, the softening strategy is used. This strategy starts with a rigid grids (small length, small bending and large elasticity modules λ {\displaystyle \lambda } and μ {\displaystyle \mu } coefficients) and finishes with soft grids (small λ {\displaystyle \lambda } and μ {\displaystyle \mu } ). The training goes in several epochs, each epoch with its own grid rigidness. Another adaptive strategy is growing net: one starts from a small number of nodes and gradually adds new nodes. Each epoch goes with its own number of nodes. == Applications == Most important applications of the method and free software are in bioinformatics for exploratory data analysis and visualisation of multidimensional data, for data visualisation in economics, social and political sciences, as an auxiliary tool for data mapping in geographic informational systems and for visualisation of data of various nature. The method is applied in quantitative biology for reconstructing the curved surface of a tree leaf from a stack of light microscopy images. This reconstruction is used for quantifying the geodesic distances between trichomes and their patterning, which is a marker of the capability of a plant to resist to pathogenes. Recently, the method is adapted as a support tool in the decision process underlying the selection, optimization, and management of financial portfolios. The method of elastic maps has been systematically tested and compared with several machine learning methods on the applied problem of identification of the flow regime of a gas-liquid flow in a pipe. There are various regimes: Single phase water or air flow, Bubbly flow, Bubbly-slug flow, Slug flow, Slug-churn flow, Churn flow, Churn-annular flow, and Annular flow. The simplest and most common method used to identify the flow regime is visual observation. This approach is, however, subjective and unsuitable for relatively high gas and liquid flow rates. Therefore, the machine learning methods are proposed by many authors. The methods are applied to differential pressure data collected during a calibration process. The method of elastic maps provided a 2D map, where the area of each regime is represented. The comparison with some other machine learning methods is presented in Table 1 for various pipe diameters and pressure. Here, ANN stands for the backpropagation artificial neural networks, SVM stands for the support vector machine, SOM for the self-organizing maps. The hybrid technology was developed for engineering applications. In this technology, elastic maps are used in combination with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and backpropagation ANN. The textbook provides a systematic comparison of elastic maps and self-organizing maps (SOMs) in applications to economic and financial decision-making.

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  • Quadratic classifier

    Quadratic classifier

    In statistics, a quadratic classifier is a statistical classifier that uses a quadratic decision surface to separate measurements of two or more classes of objects or events. It is a more general version of the linear classifier. == The classification problem == Statistical classification considers a set of vectors of observations x of an object or event, each of which has a known type y. This set is referred to as the training set. The problem is then to determine, for a given new observation vector, what the best class should be. For a quadratic classifier, the correct solution is assumed to be quadratic in the measurements, so y will be decided based on x T A x + b T x + c {\displaystyle \mathbf {x^{T}Ax} +\mathbf {b^{T}x} +c} In the special case where each observation consists of two measurements, this means that the surfaces separating the classes will be conic sections (i.e., either a line, a circle or ellipse, a parabola or a hyperbola). In this sense, we can state that a quadratic model is a generalization of the linear model, and its use is justified by the desire to extend the classifier's ability to represent more complex separating surfaces. == Quadratic discriminant analysis == Quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) is closely related to linear discriminant analysis (LDA), where it is assumed that the measurements from each class are normally distributed. Unlike LDA however, in QDA there is no assumption that the covariance of each of the classes is identical. When the normality assumption is true, the best possible test for the hypothesis that a given measurement is from a given class is the likelihood ratio test. Suppose there are only two groups, with means μ 0 , μ 1 {\displaystyle \mu _{0},\mu _{1}} and covariance matrices Σ 0 , Σ 1 {\displaystyle \Sigma _{0},\Sigma _{1}} corresponding to y = 0 {\displaystyle y=0} and y = 1 {\displaystyle y=1} respectively. Then the likelihood ratio is given by Likelihood ratio = | 2 π Σ 1 | − 1 exp ⁡ ( − 1 2 ( x − μ 1 ) T Σ 1 − 1 ( x − μ 1 ) ) | 2 π Σ 0 | − 1 exp ⁡ ( − 1 2 ( x − μ 0 ) T Σ 0 − 1 ( x − μ 0 ) ) < t {\displaystyle {\text{Likelihood ratio}}={\frac {{\sqrt {|2\pi \Sigma _{1}|}}^{-1}\exp \left(-{\frac {1}{2}}(\mathbf {x} -{\boldsymbol {\mu }}_{1})^{T}\Sigma _{1}^{-1}(\mathbf {x} -{\boldsymbol {\mu }}_{1})\right)}{{\sqrt {|2\pi \Sigma _{0}|}}^{-1}\exp \left(-{\frac {1}{2}}(\mathbf {x} -{\boldsymbol {\mu }}_{0})^{T}\Sigma _{0}^{-1}(\mathbf {x} -{\boldsymbol {\mu }}_{0})\right)}} Read more →

  • Video editing software

    Video editing software

    Video editing software or a video editor is software used for performing the post-production video editing of digital video sequences on a non-linear editing system (NLE). It has replaced traditional flatbed celluloid film editing tools and analog video tape editing machines. Video editing software serves a lot of purposes, such as filmmaking, audio commentary, and general editing of video content. In NLE software, the user manipulates sections of video, images, and audio on a sequence. These clips can be trimmed, cut, and manipulated in many different ways. When editing is finished, the user exports the sequence as a video file. == Components == === Timeline === NLE software is typically based on a timeline interface where sections moving image video recordings, known as clips, are laid out in sequence and played back. The NLE offers a range of tools for trimming, splicing, cutting, and arranging clips across the timeline. Another kind of clip is a text clip, used to add text to a video, such as title screens or movie credits. Audio clips can additionally be mixed together, such as mixing a soundtrack with multiple sound effects. Typically, the timeline is divided into multiple rows on the y-axis for different clips playing simultaneously, whereas the x-axis represents the run time of the video. Effects such as transitions can be performed on each clip, such as a crossfade effect going from one scene to another. === Exporting === Since video editors represent a project with a file format specific to the program, one needs to export the video file in order to publish it. Once a project is complete, the editor can then export to movies in a variety of formats in a context that may range from broadcast tape formats to compressed video files for web publishing (such as on an online video platform or personal website), optical media, or saved to mobile devices. To facilitate editing, source video typically has a higher resolution than the desired output. Therefore, higher resolution video needs to be downscaled during exporting, or after exporting in a process known as transsizing. === Visual effects === As digital video editing advanced, visual effects became possible, and is part of the standard toolkit, usually found in prosumer and professional grade software. A common ability is to do compositing techniques such as chroma keying or luma keying, among others, which allow different objects to look as if they are in the same scene. A different kind of visual effects is motion capture. Software such as Blender can perform motion capture to make animated objects follow an actor's movements. === Additional features === Most professional video editors are able to do color grading, which is to manipulate visual attributes of a video such as contrast to enhance output, and improve emotional impact. Some video editors such as iMovie include stock footage available for use. == Hardware requirements == As video editing puts great demands on storage and graphics performance, especially at high resolutions such as 4K, and for videos with many visual effects, powerful hardware is often required. It is not uncommon for a computer built for video editing to have a lot of drive capacity, and a powerful graphics processing unit, which optimally has hardware accelerated video encoding. Having sufficient disk space is important since videos can take up large amounts of storage, depending on the resolution and compression format used. Each minute of a Full HD (1080p) video at 30 fps takes up 60MB of space. When visual effects are used, a server farm can be employed to speed up the rendering process. == Examples == Video editing software can be divided into consumer grade, which focuses on ease-of-use, along with professional grade software, which focuses on feature availability, and advanced editing techniques. The typical use case for the former is to edit personal videos on the go, when more advanced editing is not required. === Consumer grade === Photos (Apple) Google Photos YouTube Create === Prosumer grade === ==== Proprietary software ==== iMovie CyberLink PowerDirector === Professional grade === ==== Proprietary software ==== Final Cut Pro Adobe Premiere Pro DaVinci Resolve Vegas Pro Lightworks Camtasia Media Composer ==== Free and open source software ==== Avidemux Blender Cinelerra Flowblade Kdenlive OpenShot Shotcut While most video editing software has been separate from the operating systems, some operating systems have had a video editor installed by default, such as Windows Movie Maker in Windows XP, or as a component of the default photo viewer, such as the Photos app on iOS. Some social media platforms, such as TikTok and Instagram may include a rudimentary video editor to trim clips.

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  • Teacher forcing

    Teacher forcing

    Teacher forcing is an algorithm for training the weights of recurrent neural networks (RNNs). It involves feeding observed sequence values (i.e. ground-truth samples) back into the RNN after each step, thus forcing the RNN to stay close to the ground-truth sequence. The term "teacher forcing" can be motivated by comparing the RNN to a human student taking a multi-part exam where the answer to each part (for example a mathematical calculation) depends on the answer to the preceding part. In this analogy, rather than grading every answer in the end, with the risk that the student fails every single part even though they only made a mistake in the first one, a teacher records the score for each individual part and then tells the student the correct answer, to be used in the next part. The use of an external teacher signal is in contrast to real-time recurrent learning (RTRL). Teacher signals are known from oscillator networks. The promise is, that teacher forcing helps to reduce the training time. The term "teacher forcing" was introduced in 1989 by Ronald J. Williams and David Zipser, who reported that the technique was already being "frequently used in dynamical supervised learning tasks" around that time. A NeurIPS 2016 paper introduced the related method of "professor forcing".

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  • Randomized weighted majority algorithm

    Randomized weighted majority algorithm

    The randomized weighted majority algorithm is an algorithm in machine learning theory for aggregating expert predictions to a series of decision problems. It is a simple and effective method based on weighted voting which improves on the mistake bound of the deterministic weighted majority algorithm. In fact, in the limit, its prediction rate can be arbitrarily close to that of the best-predicting expert. == Example == Imagine that every morning before the stock market opens, we get a prediction from each of our "experts" about whether the stock market will go up or down. Our goal is to somehow combine this set of predictions into a single prediction that we then use to make a buy or sell decision for the day. The principal challenge is that we do not know which experts will give better or worse predictions. The RWMA gives us a way to do this combination such that our prediction record will be nearly as good as that of the single expert which, in hindsight, gave the most accurate predictions. == Motivation == In machine learning, the weighted majority algorithm (WMA) is a deterministic meta-learning algorithm for aggregating expert predictions. In pseudocode, the WMA is as follows: initialize all experts to weight 1 for each round: add each expert's weight to the option they predicted predict the option with the largest weighted sum multiply the weights of all experts who predicted wrongly by 1 2 {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}} Suppose there are n {\displaystyle n} experts and the best expert makes m {\displaystyle m} mistakes. Then, the weighted majority algorithm (WMA) makes at most 2.4 ( log 2 ⁡ n + m ) {\displaystyle 2.4(\log _{2}n+m)} mistakes. This bound is highly problematic in the case of highly error-prone experts. Suppose, for example, the best expert makes a mistake 20% of the time; that is, in N = 100 {\displaystyle N=100} rounds using n = 10 {\displaystyle n=10} experts, the best expert makes m = 20 {\displaystyle m=20} mistakes. Then, the weighted majority algorithm only guarantees an upper bound of 2.4 ( log 2 ⁡ 10 + 20 ) ≈ 56 {\displaystyle 2.4(\log _{2}10+20)\approx 56} mistakes. As this is a known limitation of the weighted majority algorithm, various strategies have been explored in order to improve the dependence on m {\displaystyle m} . In particular, we can do better by introducing randomization. Drawing inspiration from the Multiplicative Weights Update Method algorithm, we will probabilistically make predictions based on how the experts have performed in the past. Similarly to the WMA, every time an expert makes a wrong prediction, we will decrement their weight. Mirroring the MWUM, we will then use the weights to make a probability distribution over the actions and draw our action from this distribution (instead of deterministically picking the majority vote as the WMA does). == Randomized weighted majority algorithm (RWMA) == The randomized weighted majority algorithm is an attempt to improve the dependence of the mistake bound of the WMA on m {\displaystyle m} . Instead of predicting based on majority vote, the weights, are used as probabilities for choosing the experts in each round and are updated over time (hence the name randomized weighted majority). Precisely, if w i {\displaystyle w_{i}} is the weight of expert i {\displaystyle i} , let W = ∑ i w i {\displaystyle W=\sum _{i}w_{i}} . We will follow expert i {\displaystyle i} with probability w i W {\displaystyle {\frac {w_{i}}{W}}} . This results in the following algorithm: initialize all experts to weight 1. for each round: add all experts' weights together to obtain the total weight W {\displaystyle W} choose expert i {\displaystyle i} randomly with probability w i W {\displaystyle {\frac {w_{i}}{W}}} predict as the chosen expert predicts multiply the weights of all experts who predicted wrongly by β {\displaystyle \beta } The goal is to bound the worst-case expected number of mistakes, assuming that the adversary has to select one of the answers as correct before we make our coin toss. This is a reasonable assumption in, for instance, the stock market example provided above: the variance of a stock price should not depend on the opinions of experts that influence private buy or sell decisions, so we can treat the price change as if it was decided before the experts gave their recommendations for the day. The randomized algorithm is better in the worst case than the deterministic algorithm (weighted majority algorithm): in the latter, the worst case was when the weights were split 50/50. But in the randomized version, since the weights are used as probabilities, there would still be a 50/50 chance of getting it right. In addition, generalizing to multiplying the weights of the incorrect experts by β < 1 {\displaystyle \beta <1} instead of strictly 1 2 {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}} allows us to trade off between dependence on m {\displaystyle m} and log 2 ⁡ n {\displaystyle \log _{2}n} . This trade-off will be quantified in the analysis section. == Analysis == Let W t {\displaystyle W_{t}} denote the total weight of all experts at round t {\displaystyle t} . Also let F t {\displaystyle F_{t}} denote the fraction of weight placed on experts which predict the wrong answer at round t {\displaystyle t} . Finally, let N {\displaystyle N} be the total number of rounds in the process. By definition, F t {\displaystyle F_{t}} is the probability that the algorithm makes a mistake on round t {\displaystyle t} . It follows from the linearity of expectation that if M {\displaystyle M} denotes the total number of mistakes made during the entire process, E [ M ] = ∑ t = 1 N F t {\displaystyle E[M]=\sum _{t=1}^{N}F_{t}} . After round t {\displaystyle t} , the total weight is decreased by ( 1 − β ) F t W t {\displaystyle \ (1-\beta )F_{t}W_{t}} , since all weights corresponding to a wrong answer are multiplied by β < 1 {\displaystyle \ \beta <1} . It then follows that W t + 1 = W t ( 1 − ( 1 − β ) F t ) {\displaystyle W_{t+1}=W_{t}(1-(1-\beta )F_{t})} . By telescoping, since W 1 = n {\displaystyle W_{1}=n} , it follows that the total weight after the process concludes is On the other hand, suppose that m {\displaystyle \ m} is the number of mistakes made by the best-performing expert. At the end, this expert has weight β m {\displaystyle \ \beta ^{m}} . It follows, then, that the total weight is at least this much; in other words, W ≥ β m {\displaystyle \ W\geq \beta ^{m}} . This inequality and the above result imply Taking the natural logarithm of both sides yields Now, the Taylor series of the natural logarithm is In particular, it follows that ln ⁡ ( 1 − ( 1 − β ) F t ) < − ( 1 − β ) F t {\displaystyle \ \ln(1-(1-\beta )F_{t})<-(1-\beta )F_{t}} . Thus, Recalling that E [ M ] = ∑ t = 1 N F t {\displaystyle E[M]=\sum _{t=1}^{N}F_{t}} and rearranging, it follows that Now, as β → 1 {\displaystyle \beta \to 1} from below, the first constant tends to 1 {\displaystyle 1} ; however, the second constant tends to + ∞ {\displaystyle +\infty } . To quantify this tradeoff, define ε = 1 − β {\displaystyle \varepsilon =1-\beta } to be the penalty associated with getting a prediction wrong. Then, again applying the Taylor series of the natural logarithm, It then follows that the mistake bound, for small ε {\displaystyle \varepsilon } , can be written in the form ( 1 + ϵ 2 + O ( ε 2 ) ) m + ϵ − 1 ln ⁡ ( n ) {\displaystyle \ \left(1+{\frac {\epsilon }{2}}+O(\varepsilon ^{2})\right)m+\epsilon ^{-1}\ln(n)} . In English, the less that we penalize experts for their mistakes, the more that additional experts will lead to initial mistakes but the closer we get to capturing the predictive accuracy of the best expert as time goes on. In particular, given a sufficiently low value of ε {\displaystyle \varepsilon } and enough rounds, the randomized weighted majority algorithm can get arbitrarily close to the correct prediction rate of the best expert. In particular, as long as m {\displaystyle m} is sufficiently large compared to ln ⁡ ( n ) {\displaystyle \ln(n)} (so that their ratio is sufficiently small), we can assign we can obtain an upper bound on the number of mistakes equal to This implies that the "regret bound" on the algorithm (that is, how much worse it performs than the best expert) is sublinear, at O ( m ln ⁡ ( n ) ) {\displaystyle O({\sqrt {m\ln(n)}})} . == Revisiting the motivation == Recall that the motivation for the randomized weighted majority algorithm was given by an example where the best expert makes a mistake 20% of the time. Precisely, in N = 100 {\displaystyle N=100} rounds, with n = 10 {\displaystyle n=10} experts, where the best expert makes m = 20 {\displaystyle m=20} mistakes, the deterministic weighted majority algorithm only guarantees an upper bound of 2.4 ( log 2 ⁡ 10 + 20 ) ≈ 56 {\displaystyle 2.4(\log _{2}10+20)\approx 56} . By the analysis above, it follows that minimizing the number of worst-case expected mistakes is equivalent to minimizing the fun

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