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  • Straight-Through Quality

    Straight-Through Quality

    Straight-Through Quality (STQ) are approaches and outputs of test automation that have quality and deliver business benefit. STQ takes its name from the business concept of straight-through processing (STP). Also acting as a tool and enabler for STP. Traditional techniques for testing and delivery have often required a great deal of manual support and intervention. These approaches are subject to human error, cost of delay and lack of reuse. These also have the negative side-effect of being unable to deliver 'fail-fast' approaches, which have proven popular with Agile practitioners. Previous traditional approaches have been typically expensive where whole silo'ed departments are created within commercial companies to deliver Quality and Deployment alone. Thus STQ as an approach hopes to resolve this problem. == Examples == Tangible examples of STQ approaches in the software industry are present and often known as continuous integration (CI) and continuous delivery (CD). These combined can ensure that software delivery is integrated, automatically tested and ready for automatic delivery at any time. Together CI/CD can enable STQ which can be used as Business output terminology for business users who do not understand the technical complexities of CI/CD.

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  • Characteristic samples

    Characteristic samples

    Characteristic samples is a concept in the field of grammatical inference, related to passive learning. In passive learning, an inference algorithm I {\displaystyle I} is given a set of pairs of strings and labels S {\displaystyle S} , and returns a representation R {\displaystyle R} that is consistent with S {\displaystyle S} . Characteristic samples consider the scenario when the goal is not only finding a representation consistent with S {\displaystyle S} , but finding a representation that recognizes a specific target language. A characteristic sample of language L {\displaystyle L} is a set of pairs of the form ( s , l ( s ) ) {\displaystyle (s,l(s))} where: l ( s ) = 1 {\displaystyle l(s)=1} if and only if s ∈ L {\displaystyle s\in L} l ( s ) = − 1 {\displaystyle l(s)=-1} if and only if s ∉ L {\displaystyle s\notin L} Given the characteristic sample S {\displaystyle S} , I {\displaystyle I} 's output on it is a representation R {\displaystyle R} , e.g. an automaton, that recognizes L {\displaystyle L} . == Formal Definition == === The Learning Paradigm associated with Characteristic Samples === There are three entities in the learning paradigm connected to characteristic samples, the adversary, the teacher and the inference algorithm. Given a class of languages C {\displaystyle \mathbb {C} } and a class of representations for the languages R {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} } , the paradigm goes as follows: The adversary A {\displaystyle A} selects a language L ∈ C {\displaystyle L\in \mathbb {C} } and reports it to the teacher The teacher T {\displaystyle T} then computes a set of strings and label them correctly according to L {\displaystyle L} , trying to make sure that the inference algorithm will compute L {\displaystyle L} The adversary can add correctly labeled words to the set in order to confuse the inference algorithm The inference algorithm I {\displaystyle I} gets the sample and computes a representation R ∈ R {\displaystyle R\in \mathbb {R} } consistent with the sample. The goal is that when the inference algorithm receives a characteristic sample for a language L {\displaystyle L} , or a sample that subsumes a characteristic sample for L {\displaystyle L} , it will return a representation that recognizes exactly the language L {\displaystyle L} . === Sample === Sample S {\displaystyle S} is a set of pairs of the form ( s , l ( s ) ) {\displaystyle (s,l(s))} such that l ( s ) ∈ { − 1 , 1 } {\displaystyle l(s)\in \{-1,1\}} ==== Sample consistent with a language ==== We say that a sample S {\displaystyle S} is consistent with language L {\displaystyle L} if for every pair ( s , l ( s ) ) {\displaystyle (s,l(s))} in S {\displaystyle S} : l ( s ) = 1 if and only if s ∈ L {\displaystyle l(s)=1{\text{ if and only if }}s\in L} l ( s ) = − 1 if and only if s ∉ L {\displaystyle l(s)=-1{\text{ if and only if }}s\notin L} === Characteristic sample === Given an inference algorithm I {\displaystyle I} and a language L {\displaystyle L} , a sample S {\displaystyle S} that is consistent with L {\displaystyle L} is called a characteristic sample of L {\displaystyle L} for I {\displaystyle I} if: I {\displaystyle I} 's output on S {\displaystyle S} is a representation R {\displaystyle R} that recognizes L {\displaystyle L} . For every sample D {\displaystyle D} that is consistent with L {\displaystyle L} and also fulfils S ⊆ D {\displaystyle S\subseteq D} , I {\displaystyle I} 's output on D {\displaystyle D} is a representation R {\displaystyle R} that recognizes L {\displaystyle L} . A Class of languages C {\displaystyle \mathbb {C} } is said to have charistaristic samples if every L ∈ C {\displaystyle L\in \mathbb {C} } has a characteristic sample. == Related Theorems == === Theorem === If equivalence is undecidable for a class C {\textstyle \mathbb {C} } over Σ {\textstyle \Sigma } of cardinality bigger than 1, then C {\textstyle \mathbb {C} } doesn't have characteristic samples. ==== Proof ==== Given a class of representations C {\textstyle \mathbb {C} } such that equivalence is undecidable, for every polynomial p ( x ) {\displaystyle p(x)} and every n ∈ N {\displaystyle n\in \mathbb {N} } , there exist two representations r 1 {\displaystyle r_{1}} and r 2 {\displaystyle r_{2}} of sizes bounded by n {\displaystyle n} , that recognize different languages but are inseparable by any string of size bounded by p ( n ) {\displaystyle p(n)} . Assuming this is not the case, we can decide if r 1 {\displaystyle r_{1}} and r 2 {\displaystyle r_{2}} are equivalent by simulating their run on all strings of size smaller than p ( n ) {\displaystyle p(n)} , contradicting the assumption that equivalence is undecidable. === Theorem === If S 1 {\displaystyle S_{1}} is a characteristic sample for L 1 {\displaystyle L_{1}} and is also consistent with L 2 {\displaystyle L_{2}} , then every characteristic sample of L 2 {\displaystyle L_{2}} , is inconsistent with L 1 {\displaystyle L_{1}} . ==== Proof ==== Given a class C {\textstyle \mathbb {C} } that has characteristic samples, let R 1 {\displaystyle R_{1}} and R 2 {\displaystyle R_{2}} be representations that recognize L 1 {\displaystyle L_{1}} and L 2 {\displaystyle L_{2}} respectively. Under the assumption that there is a characteristic sample for L 1 {\displaystyle L_{1}} , S 1 {\displaystyle S_{1}} that is also consistent with L 2 {\displaystyle L_{2}} , we'll assume falsely that there exist a characteristic sample for L 2 {\displaystyle L_{2}} , S 2 {\displaystyle S_{2}} that is consistent with L 1 {\displaystyle L_{1}} . By the definition of characteristic sample, the inference algorithm I {\displaystyle I} must return a representation which recognizes the language if given a sample that subsumes the characteristic sample itself. But for the sample S 1 ∪ S 2 {\displaystyle S_{1}\cup S_{2}} , the answer of the inferring algorithm needs to recognize both L 1 {\displaystyle L_{1}} and L 2 {\displaystyle L_{2}} , in contradiction. === Theorem === If a class is polynomially learnable by example based queries, it is learnable with characteristic samples. == Polynomialy characterizable classes == === Regular languages === The proof that DFA's are learnable using characteristic samples, relies on the fact that every regular language has a finite number of equivalence classes with respect to the right congruence relation, ∼ L {\displaystyle \sim _{L}} (where x ∼ L y {\displaystyle x\sim _{L}y} for x , y ∈ Σ ∗ {\displaystyle x,y\in \Sigma ^{}} if and only if ∀ z ∈ Σ ∗ : x z ∈ L ↔ y z ∈ L {\displaystyle \forall z\in \Sigma ^{}:xz\in L\leftrightarrow yz\in L} ). Note that if x {\displaystyle x} , y {\displaystyle y} are not congruent with respect to ∼ L {\displaystyle \sim _{L}} , there exists a string z {\displaystyle z} such that x z ∈ L {\displaystyle xz\in L} but y z ∉ L {\displaystyle yz\notin L} or vice versa, this string is called a separating suffix. ==== Constructing a characteristic sample ==== The construction of a characteristic sample for a language L {\displaystyle L} by the teacher goes as follows. Firstly, by running a depth first search on a deterministic automaton A {\displaystyle A} recognizing L {\displaystyle L} , starting from its initial state, we get a suffix closed set of words, W {\displaystyle W} , ordered in shortlex order. From the fact above, we know that for every two states in the automaton, there exists a separating suffix that separates between every two strings that the run of A {\displaystyle A} on them ends in the respective states. We refer to the set of separating suffixes as S {\displaystyle S} . The labeled set (sample) of words the teacher gives the adversary is { ( w , l ( w ) ) | w ∈ W ⋅ S ∪ W ⋅ Σ ⋅ S } {\displaystyle \{(w,l(w))|w\in W\cdot S\cup W\cdot \Sigma \cdot S\}} where l ( w ) {\displaystyle l(w)} is the correct label of w {\displaystyle w} (whether it is in L {\displaystyle L} or not). We may assume that ϵ ∈ S {\displaystyle \epsilon \in S} . ==== Constructing a deterministic automata ==== Given the sample from the adversary W {\displaystyle W} , the construction of the automaton by the inference algorithm I {\displaystyle I} starts with defining P = prefix ( W ) {\displaystyle P={\text{prefix}}(W)} and S = suffix ( W ) {\displaystyle S={\text{suffix}}(W)} , which are the set of prefixes and suffixes of W {\displaystyle W} respectively. Now the algorithm constructs a matrix M {\displaystyle M} where the elements of P {\displaystyle P} function as the rows, ordered by the shortlex order, and the elements of S {\displaystyle S} function as the columns, ordered by the shortlex order. Next, the cells in the matrix are filled in the following manner for prefix p i {\displaystyle p_{i}} and suffix s j {\displaystyle s_{j}} : If p i s j ∈ W → M i j = l ( p i s j ) {\displaystyle p_{i}s_{j}\in W\rightarrow M_{ij}=l(p_{i}s_{j})} else, M i j = 0 {\displaystyle M_{ij}=0} Now, we say row i {\displaystyle i} and t {\displaystyle t} are distinguishable if there exi

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  • CN2 algorithm

    CN2 algorithm

    The CN2 induction algorithm is a learning algorithm for rule induction. It is designed to work even when the training data is imperfect. It is based on ideas from the AQ algorithm and the ID3 algorithm. As a consequence it creates a rule set like that created by AQ but is able to handle noisy data like ID3. == Description of algorithm == The algorithm must be given a set of examples, TrainingSet, which have already been classified in order to generate a list of classification rules. A set of conditions, SimpleConditionSet, which can be applied, alone or in combination, to any set of examples is predefined to be used for the classification. routine CN2(TrainingSet) let the ClassificationRuleList be empty repeat let the BestConditionExpression be Find_BestConditionExpression(TrainingSet) if the BestConditionExpression is not nil then let the TrainingSubset be the examples covered by the BestConditionExpression remove from the TrainingSet the examples in the TrainingSubset let the MostCommonClass be the most common class of examples in the TrainingSubset append to the ClassificationRuleList the rule 'if ' the BestConditionExpression ' then the class is ' the MostCommonClass until the TrainingSet is empty or the BestConditionExpression is nil return the ClassificationRuleList routine Find_BestConditionExpression(TrainingSet) let the ConditionalExpressionSet be empty let the BestConditionExpression be nil repeat let the TrialConditionalExpressionSet be the set of conditional expressions, {x and y where x belongs to the ConditionalExpressionSet and y belongs to the SimpleConditionSet}. remove all formulae in the TrialConditionalExpressionSet that are either in the ConditionalExpressionSet (i.e., the unspecialized ones) or null (e.g., big = y and big = n) for every expression, F, in the TrialConditionalExpressionSet if F is statistically significant and F is better than the BestConditionExpression by user-defined criteria when tested on the TrainingSet then replace the current value of the BestConditionExpression by F while the number of expressions in the TrialConditionalExpressionSet > user-defined maximum remove the worst expression from the TrialConditionalExpressionSet let the ConditionalExpressionSet be the TrialConditionalExpressionSet until the ConditionalExpressionSet is empty return the BestConditionExpression

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  • LamaH

    LamaH

    LamaH (Large-Sample Data for Hydrology and Environmental Sciences) is a cross-state initiative for unified data preparation and collection in the field of catchment hydrology. Hydrological datasets, for example, are an integral component for creating flood forecasting models. == Features == LamaH datasets always consist of a combination of meteorological time series (e.g., precipitation, temperature) and hydrologically relevant catchment attributes (e.g., elevation, slope, forest area, soil, bedrock) aggregated over the respective catchment as well as associated hydrological time series at the catchment outlet (discharge). By evaluating the large and heterogeneous sample (large-sample) of catchments, it is possible to gain insights into the hydrological cycle that would probably not be achievable with local and small-scale studies. The structure of the dataset allows an evaluation based on machine learning methods (deep learning). The accompanying paper explains not only the data preparation but also any limitations, uncertainties and possible applications. == Difference to CAMELS == The LamaH datasets are quite similar to the CAMELS datasets, but additionally feature: Further basin delineations (based on intermediate catchments) and attributes (e.g. flow distance and altitude difference between two topologically adjacent discharge gauges), enabling the setup of an interconnected hydrological network Attributes for classifying catchments and runoff gauges according to the degree and type of (anthropogenic) influence == Availability == LamaH datasets are available for the following regions: Central Europe (Austria and its hydrological upstream areas in Germany, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Slovakia, Italy, Liechtenstein, Slovenia and Hungary) / 859 catchments CAMELS datasets are available for (ranked by publication date): Contiguous USA (exclusive Alaska and Hawaii) / 671 catchments Chile / 516 catchments Brazil / 897 catchments Great Britain / 671 catchments Australia / 222 catchments Both the CAMELS and LamaH datasets are licensed with Creative Commons and are therefore available barrier-free for the public.

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  • Sanchar Saathi

    Sanchar Saathi

    Sanchar Saathi (lit. 'Communication Partner' or 'Communication Companion') is an Indian state-owned app and web portal, operated by the Department of Telecommunications, designed to assist Indian mobile users in tracking and blocking stolen or lost mobile devices. In late 2025, a government order requiring Sanchar Saathi to be pre-installed on all mobile devices sold nationwide, with explicit provisions on preventing users from deleting the app or disabling any of its broad functionalities, triggered widespread backlash. The order was subsequently withdrawn. == Background == The Telecommunications Act 2023 introduced an exceptionally broad definition of the term "telecommunications" and conferred wide-ranging powers on the government. Although the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) assured reporters that this definition would not be used to justify government overreach, a November 2024 amendment to the Telecom Cyber Security Rules expanded it further and introduced the concept of the Telecommunication Identifier User Entity (TIEU), enabling users to be personally identified through their phone numbers. Sanchar Saathi was launched amid a widespread rise in cybercrime and hacking, as part of the Indian government's effort to prevent stolen phones from being used for fraud and to promote a state-backed application. In an official statement, the DoT said, "India has big second-hand mobile device market. Cases have also been observed where stolen or blacklisted devices are being re-sold. It makes the purchaser abettor in crime and causes financial loss to them." == Launch == Sanchar Saathi was originally launched as a web portal in May 2023. It was later launched as a mobile app in January 2025. Describing itself as a "citizen-centric" safety tool, Sanchar Saathi allows users to check a device's IMEI, report and block lost or stolen phones, and flag suspected fraud communications. Under Sanchar Saathi's privacy policy, it can make and manage phone calls, view and send messages, read call logs, access photos and files, access the location and camera of the device in which the app is used, as well as read and write into the device's storage. According to official government data, by December 2025, the Sanchar Saathi app had helped recover more than 700,000 lost and stolen mobile devices across India. Users report around 2,000 fraud incidents through the app each day. == Pre-installation controversy == On 28 November 2025, the Bharatiya Janata Party government, led by prime minister Narendra Modi, privately ordered phone manufacturers, including Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, among others, to pre-install the Sanchar Saathi app on new devices sold in the country, alongside mandating that old devices get issued a software update for the installation of the app. The order had a 90-day deadline and further included explicit provisions to ensure that the app is to be "readily visible and accessible to the end users at the time of first use or device setup" and that users should neither be able to delete the app nor disable or restrict any of its broad functionalities. The order caused widespread political backlash. K. C. Venugopal, a general secretary of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress (or simply the Congress), called the order "beyond unconstitutional" and said, "A pre-loaded government app that cannot be uninstalled is a dystopian tool to monitor every Indian. It is a means to watch over every movement, interaction and decision of each citizen", adding, "Big Brother cannot watch us." Another Congress general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi, termed Sanchar Saathi a "snooping app", and attacked the government for "turning this country into a dictatorship". Uddhav Thackeray, former chief minister of Maharashtra, compared Sanchar Saathi to the Pegasus spyware. Sanjay Hegde, a senior advocate at the Supreme Court of India, said "Here in the garb of security, the intrusion is vast, unfettered, unguided and is totally disproportionate. The app ought to be struck down on that account". The Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF), an Indian digital rights advocacy organisation, said, "Forcing every smartphone to carry a permanent government app for a simple verification task is excessive and violates the Puttaswamy proportionality standard", referring to Puttaswamy v. Union of India, a 2017 landmark decision of the Supreme Court, which asserted that the right to privacy should be protected as a fundamental right. The IFF further said, "For this to work in practice, the app will almost certainly need system level or root level access, similar to carrier or OEM system apps, so that it cannot be disabled. That design choice erodes the protections that normally prevent one app from peering into the data of others, and turns Sanchar Saathi into a permanent, non-consensual point of access sitting inside the operating system of every Indian smartphone user." Moreover, the organisation said that while the app was being "framed as a benign IMEI checker", a server-side update could allow the app to engage in "client side scanning for 'banned' applications, flag VPN usage, correlate SIM activity, or trawl SMS logs in the name of fraud detection. Nothing in the order constrains these possibilities." In reaction to the controversy, Jyotiraditya Scindia, the union minister of communications, said, "There is no snooping or call monitoring", adding, "Obviously you can delete it. There is no problem. This is a matter of customer protection. It is not mandatory. If you don't want to register, and don't want to use the app, don't use it; don't register, and it will lay dormant." Scindia compared the app to other pre-installed mobile apps such as Google Maps, which he said could be deleted if users wished so. However, contrary to Scindia's statement, on many phone brands, such pre-installed apps cannot be deleted, although users can disable them. Furthermore, upon enquiry, Scindia did not clarify whether his remarks applied to the app after the order took effect, making no comment on the provision in the order that would prevent users from deleting the app. When Congress member Renuka Chowdhury submitted an adjournment motion notice in the Rajya Sabha seeking the suspension of all other matters to discuss the Sanchar Saathi issue, Kiren Rijiju, the union minister of parliamentary affairs, accused the opposition of "manufacturing issues" to stall session proceedings. By 2 December, it had been reported that Apple did not plan to comply with the order, citing privacy and security concerns for the iOS ecosystem and the fact that the order would violate its internal policy against the pre-installation of third-party software in iPhones. Although it was clarified that Apple did not intend to take the matter to court or publicly oppose the government, it was said that Apple "can't do this. Period." The order would have also required Google to create a custom version of Android solely for India which would include the Sanchar Saathi app, a requirement described to "not be acceptable to the company". Following the backlash, the order was revoked on 3 December 2025. In a press release, the government said, "Given Sanchar Saathi's increasing acceptance, Government has decided not to make the pre-installation mandatory for mobile manufacturers".

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  • Variational autoencoder

    Variational autoencoder

    In machine learning, a variational autoencoder (VAE) is an artificial neural network architecture introduced by Diederik P. Kingma and Max Welling in 2013. It is part of the families of probabilistic graphical models and variational Bayesian methods. In addition to being seen as an autoencoder neural network architecture, variational autoencoders can also be studied within the mathematical formulation of variational Bayesian methods, connecting a neural encoder network to its decoder through a probabilistic latent space (for example, as a multivariate Gaussian distribution) that corresponds to the parameters of a variational distribution. Thus, the encoder maps each point (such as an image) from a large complex dataset into a distribution within the latent space, rather than to a single point in that space. The decoder has the opposite function, which is to map from the latent space to the input space, again according to a distribution (although in practice, noise is rarely added during the decoding stage). By mapping a point to a distribution instead of a single point, the network can avoid overfitting the training data. Both networks are typically trained together with the usage of the reparameterization trick, although the variance of the noise model can be learned separately. Although this type of model was initially designed for unsupervised learning, its effectiveness has been proven for semi-supervised learning and supervised learning. == Overview of architecture and operation == A variational autoencoder is a generative model with a prior and noise distribution respectively. Usually such models are trained using the expectation-maximization meta-algorithm (e.g. probabilistic PCA, (spike & slab) sparse coding). Such a scheme optimizes a lower bound of the data likelihood, which is usually computationally intractable, and in doing so requires the discovery of q-distributions, or variational posteriors. These q-distributions are normally parameterized for each individual data point in a separate optimization process. However, variational autoencoders use a neural network as an amortized approach to jointly optimize across data points. In that way, the same parameters are reused for multiple data points, which can result in massive memory savings. The first neural network takes as input the data points themselves, and outputs parameters for the variational distribution. As it maps from a known input space to the low-dimensional latent space, it is called the encoder. The decoder is the second neural network of this model. It is a function that maps from the latent space to the input space, e.g. as the means of the noise distribution. It is possible to use another neural network that maps to the variance, however this can be omitted for simplicity. In such a case, the variance can be optimized with gradient descent. To optimize this model, one needs to know two terms: the "reconstruction error", and the Kullback–Leibler divergence (KL-D). Both terms are derived from the free energy expression of the probabilistic model, and therefore differ depending on the noise distribution and the assumed prior of the data, here referred to as p-distribution. For example, a standard VAE task such as IMAGENET is typically assumed to have a gaussianly distributed noise; however, tasks such as binarized MNIST require a Bernoulli noise. The KL-D from the free energy expression maximizes the probability mass of the q-distribution that overlaps with the p-distribution, which unfortunately can result in mode-seeking behaviour. The "reconstruction" term is the remainder of the free energy expression, and requires a sampling approximation to compute its expectation value. More recent approaches replace Kullback–Leibler divergence (KL-D) with various statistical distances, see "Statistical distance VAE variants" below. == Formulation == From the point of view of probabilistic modeling, one wants to maximize the likelihood of the data x {\displaystyle x} by their chosen parameterized probability distribution p θ ( x ) = p ( x | θ ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(x)=p(x|\theta )} . This distribution is usually chosen to be a Gaussian N ( x | μ , σ ) {\displaystyle N(x|\mu ,\sigma )} which is parameterized by μ {\displaystyle \mu } and σ {\displaystyle \sigma } respectively, and as a member of the exponential family it is easy to work with as a noise distribution. Simple distributions are easy enough to maximize, however distributions where a prior is assumed over the latents z {\displaystyle z} results in intractable integrals. Let us find p θ ( x ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(x)} via marginalizing over z {\displaystyle z} . p θ ( x ) = ∫ z p θ ( x , z ) d z , {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(x)=\int _{z}p_{\theta }({x,z})\,dz,} where p θ ( x , z ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }({x,z})} represents the joint distribution under p θ {\displaystyle p_{\theta }} of the observable data x {\displaystyle x} and its latent representation or encoding z {\displaystyle z} . According to the chain rule, the equation can be rewritten as p θ ( x ) = ∫ z p θ ( x | z ) p θ ( z ) d z {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(x)=\int _{z}p_{\theta }({x|z})p_{\theta }(z)\,dz} In the vanilla variational autoencoder, z {\displaystyle z} is usually taken to be a finite-dimensional vector of real numbers, and p θ ( x | z ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }({x|z})} to be a Gaussian distribution. Then p θ ( x ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(x)} is a mixture of Gaussian distributions. It is now possible to define the set of the relationships between the input data and its latent representation as Prior p θ ( z ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(z)} Likelihood p θ ( x | z ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(x|z)} Posterior p θ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(z|x)} Unfortunately, the computation of p θ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(z|x)} is expensive and in most cases intractable. To speed up the calculus to make it feasible, it is necessary to introduce a further function to approximate the posterior distribution as q ϕ ( z | x ) ≈ p θ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle q_{\phi }({z|x})\approx p_{\theta }({z|x})} with ϕ {\displaystyle \phi } defined as the set of real values that parametrize q {\displaystyle q} . This is sometimes called amortized inference, since by "investing" in finding a good q ϕ {\displaystyle q_{\phi }} , one can later infer z {\displaystyle z} from x {\displaystyle x} quickly without doing any integrals. In this way, the problem is to find a good probabilistic autoencoder, in which the conditional likelihood distribution p θ ( x | z ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(x|z)} is computed by the probabilistic decoder, and the approximated posterior distribution q ϕ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle q_{\phi }(z|x)} is computed by the probabilistic encoder. Parametrize the encoder as E ϕ {\displaystyle E_{\phi }} , and the decoder as D θ {\displaystyle D_{\theta }} . == Evidence lower bound (ELBO) == Like many deep learning approaches that use gradient-based optimization, VAEs require a differentiable loss function to update the network weights through backpropagation. For variational autoencoders, the idea is to jointly optimize the generative model parameters θ {\displaystyle \theta } to reduce the reconstruction error between the input and the output, and ϕ {\displaystyle \phi } to make q ϕ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle q_{\phi }({z|x})} as close as possible to p θ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(z|x)} . As reconstruction loss, mean squared error and cross entropy are often used. The Kullback–Leibler divergence D K L ( q ϕ ( z | x ) ∥ p θ ( z | x ) ) {\displaystyle D_{KL}(q_{\phi }({z|x})\parallel p_{\theta }({z|x}))} can be used as a loss function to squeeze q ϕ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle q_{\phi }({z|x})} under p θ ( z | x ) {\displaystyle p_{\theta }(z|x)} . This divergence loss expands to D K L ( q ϕ ( z | x ) ∥ p θ ( z | x ) ) = E z ∼ q ϕ ( ⋅ | x ) [ ln ⁡ q ϕ ( z | x ) p θ ( z | x ) ] = E z ∼ q ϕ ( ⋅ | x ) [ ln ⁡ q ϕ ( z | x ) p θ ( x ) p θ ( x , z ) ] = ln ⁡ p θ ( x ) + E z ∼ q ϕ ( ⋅ | x ) [ ln ⁡ q ϕ ( z | x ) p θ ( x , z ) ] . {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}D_{KL}(q_{\phi }({z|x})\parallel p_{\theta }({z|x}))&=\mathbb {E} _{z\sim q_{\phi }(\cdot |x)}\left[\ln {\frac {q_{\phi }(z|x)}{p_{\theta }(z|x)}}\right]\\&=\mathbb {E} _{z\sim q_{\phi }(\cdot |x)}\left[\ln {\frac {q_{\phi }({z|x})p_{\theta }(x)}{p_{\theta }(x,z)}}\right]\\&=\ln p_{\theta }(x)+\mathbb {E} _{z\sim q_{\phi }(\cdot |x)}\left[\ln {\frac {q_{\phi }({z|x})}{p_{\theta }(x,z)}}\right].\end{aligned}}} Now, define the evidence lower bound (ELBO): L θ , ϕ ( x ) := E z ∼ q ϕ ( ⋅ | x ) [ ln ⁡ p θ ( x , z ) q ϕ ( z | x ) ] = ln ⁡ p θ ( x ) − D K L ( q ϕ ( ⋅ | x ) ∥ p θ ( ⋅ | x ) ) {\displaystyle L_{\theta ,\phi }(x):=\mathbb {E} _{z\sim q_{\phi }(\cdot |x)}\left[\ln {\frac {p_{\theta }(x,z)}{q_{\phi }({z|x})}}\right]=\ln p_{\theta }(x)-D_{KL}(q_{\phi }({\cdot |x})\parallel p_{\theta }({\cdot |x}))} Maximizing the ELBO θ ∗ , ϕ ∗ = argmax θ , ϕ L θ , ϕ ( x ) {\dis

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  • Accumulated local effects

    Accumulated local effects

    Accumulated local effects (ALE) is a machine learning interpretability method. == Concepts == ALE uses a conditional feature distribution as an input and generates augmented data, creating more realistic data than a marginal distribution. It ignores far out-of-distribution (outlier) values. Unlike partial dependence plots and marginal plots, ALE is not defeated in the presence of correlated predictors. It analyzes differences in predictions instead of averaging them by calculating the average of the differences in model predictions over the augmented data, instead of the average of the predictions themselves. == Example == Given a model that predicts house prices based on its distance from city center and size of the building area, ALE compares the differences of predictions of houses of different sizes. The result separates the impact of the size from otherwise correlated features. == Limitations == Defining evaluation windows is subjective. High correlations between features can defeat the technique. ALE requires more and more uniformly distributed observations than PDP so that the conditional distribution can be reliably determined. The technique may produce inadequate results if the data is highly sparse, which is more common with high-dimensional data (curse of dimensionality).

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  • Out-of-bag error

    Out-of-bag error

    Out-of-bag (OOB) error, also called out-of-bag estimate, is a method of measuring the prediction error of random forests, boosted decision trees, and other machine learning models utilizing bootstrap aggregating (bagging). Bagging uses subsampling with replacement to create training samples for the model to learn from. OOB error is the mean prediction error on each training sample xi, using only the trees that did not have xi in their bootstrap sample. Bootstrap aggregating allows one to define an out-of-bag estimate of the prediction performance improvement by evaluating predictions on those observations that were not used in the building of the next base learner. == Out-of-bag dataset == When bootstrap aggregating is performed, two independent sets are created. One set, the bootstrap sample, is the data chosen to be "in-the-bag" by sampling with replacement. The out-of-bag set is all data not chosen in the sampling process. When this process is repeated, such as when building a random forest, many bootstrap samples and OOB sets are created. The OOB sets can be aggregated into one dataset, but each sample is only considered out-of-bag for the trees that do not include it in their bootstrap sample. The picture below shows that for each bag sampled, the data is separated into two groups. This example shows how bagging could be used in the context of diagnosing disease. A set of patients are the original dataset, but each model is trained only by the patients in its bag. The patients in each out-of-bag set can be used to test their respective models. The test would consider whether the model can accurately determine if the patient has the disease. == Calculating out-of-bag error == Since each out-of-bag set is not used to train the model, it is a good test for the performance of the model. The specific calculation of OOB error depends on the implementation of the model, but a general calculation is as follows. Find all models (or trees, in the case of a random forest) that are not trained by the OOB instance. Take the majority vote of these models' result for the OOB instance, compared to the true value of the OOB instance. Compile the OOB error for all instances in the OOB dataset. The bagging process can be customized to fit the needs of a model. To ensure an accurate model, the bootstrap training sample size should be close to that of the original set. Also, the number of iterations (trees) of the model (forest) should be considered to find the true OOB error. The OOB error will stabilize over many iterations so starting with a high number of iterations is a good idea. Shown in the example to the right, the OOB error can be found using the method above once the forest is set up. == Comparison to cross-validation == Out-of-bag error and cross-validation (CV) are different methods of measuring the error estimate of a machine learning model. Over many iterations, the two methods should produce a very similar error estimate. That is, once the OOB error stabilizes, it will converge to the cross-validation (specifically leave-one-out cross-validation) error. The advantage of the OOB method is that it requires less computation and allows one to test the model as it is being trained. == Accuracy and Consistency == Out-of-bag error is used frequently for error estimation within random forests but with the conclusion of a study done by Silke Janitza and Roman Hornung, out-of-bag error has shown to overestimate in settings that include an equal number of observations from all response classes (balanced samples), small sample sizes, a large number of predictor variables, small correlation between predictors, and weak effects.

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  • Puck App

    Puck App

    Puck App is a mobile application that allows hockey players to quickly find and rent a hockey goalie. Founded in 2015 in Toronto, the application primarily operates throughout Canada. It is available on Apple's App Store and Google Play. == History == Puck App was founded in 2016 by Niki Sawni. Users can rate the goalies, message with available goalies, and coordinate skill levels. In 2017, Puck App expanded to Western Canada and has over 1,000 goalies registered. In 2018, Puck App charged approximately $40 CDN to rent a goalie with more than 2 hours notice. Previously, Puck App was a competitor to a similar application called GoalieUp. As of 2024, both companies have agreed to a merger deal.

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  • Diffusion map

    Diffusion map

    Diffusion maps is a dimensionality reduction or feature extraction algorithm introduced by Coifman and Lafon which computes a family of embeddings of a data set into Euclidean space (often low-dimensional) whose coordinates can be computed from the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a diffusion operator on the data. The Euclidean distance between points in the embedded space is equal to the "diffusion distance" between probability distributions centered at those points. Different from linear dimensionality reduction methods such as principal component analysis (PCA), diffusion maps are part of the family of nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods which focus on discovering the underlying manifold that the data has been sampled from. By integrating local similarities at different scales, diffusion maps give a global description of the data-set. Compared with other methods, the diffusion map algorithm is robust to noise perturbation and computationally inexpensive. == Definition of diffusion maps == Following and , diffusion maps can be defined in four steps. === Connectivity === Diffusion maps exploit the relationship between heat diffusion and random walk Markov chain. The basic observation is that if we take a random walk on the data, walking to a nearby data-point is more likely than walking to another that is far away. Let ( X , A , μ ) {\displaystyle (X,{\mathcal {A}},\mu )} be a measure space, where X {\displaystyle X} is the data set and μ {\displaystyle \mu } represents the distribution of the points on X {\displaystyle X} . Based on this, the connectivity k {\displaystyle k} between two data points, x {\displaystyle x} and y {\displaystyle y} , can be defined as the probability of walking from x {\displaystyle x} to y {\displaystyle y} in one step of the random walk. Usually, this probability is specified in terms of a kernel function of the two points: k : X × X → R {\displaystyle k:X\times X\rightarrow \mathbb {R} } . For example, the popular Gaussian kernel: k ( x , y ) = exp ⁡ ( − | | x − y | | 2 ϵ ) {\displaystyle k(x,y)=\exp \left(-{\frac {||x-y||^{2}}{\epsilon }}\right)} More generally, the kernel function has the following properties k ( x , y ) = k ( y , x ) {\displaystyle k(x,y)=k(y,x)} ( k {\displaystyle k} is symmetric) k ( x , y ) ≥ 0 ∀ x , y {\displaystyle k(x,y)\geq 0\,\,\forall x,y} ( k {\displaystyle k} is positivity preserving). The kernel constitutes the prior definition of the local geometry of the data-set. Since a given kernel will capture a specific feature of the data set, its choice should be guided by the application that one has in mind. This is a major difference with methods such as principal component analysis, where correlations between all data points are taken into account at once. Given ( X , k ) {\displaystyle (X,k)} , we can then construct a reversible discrete-time Markov chain on X {\displaystyle X} (a process known as the normalized graph Laplacian construction): d ( x ) = ∫ X k ( x , y ) d μ ( y ) {\displaystyle d(x)=\int _{X}k(x,y)d\mu (y)} and define: p ( x , y ) = k ( x , y ) d ( x ) {\displaystyle p(x,y)={\frac {k(x,y)}{d(x)}}} Although the new normalized kernel does not inherit the symmetric property, it does inherit the positivity-preserving property and gains a conservation property: ∫ X p ( x , y ) d μ ( y ) = 1 {\displaystyle \int _{X}p(x,y)d\mu (y)=1} === Diffusion process === From p ( x , y ) {\displaystyle p(x,y)} we can construct a transition matrix of a Markov chain ( M {\displaystyle M} ) on X {\displaystyle X} . In other words, p ( x , y ) {\displaystyle p(x,y)} represents the one-step transition probability from x {\displaystyle x} to y {\displaystyle y} , and M t {\displaystyle M^{t}} gives the t-step transition matrix. We define the diffusion matrix L {\displaystyle L} (it is also a version of graph Laplacian matrix) L i , j = k ( x i , x j ) {\displaystyle L_{i,j}=k(x_{i},x_{j})\,} We then define the new kernel L i , j ( α ) = k ( α ) ( x i , x j ) = L i , j ( d ( x i ) d ( x j ) ) α {\displaystyle L_{i,j}^{(\alpha )}=k^{(\alpha )}(x_{i},x_{j})={\frac {L_{i,j}}{(d(x_{i})d(x_{j}))^{\alpha }}}\,} or equivalently, L ( α ) = D − α L D − α {\displaystyle L^{(\alpha )}=D^{-\alpha }LD^{-\alpha }\,} where D is a diagonal matrix and D i , i = ∑ j L i , j . {\displaystyle D_{i,i}=\sum _{j}L_{i,j}.} We apply the graph Laplacian normalization to this new kernel: M = ( D ( α ) ) − 1 L ( α ) , {\displaystyle M=({D}^{(\alpha )})^{-1}L^{(\alpha )},\,} where D ( α ) {\displaystyle D^{(\alpha )}} is a diagonal matrix and D i , i ( α ) = ∑ j L i , j ( α ) . {\displaystyle {D}_{i,i}^{(\alpha )}=\sum _{j}L_{i,j}^{(\alpha )}.} p ( x j , t | x i ) = M i , j t {\displaystyle p(x_{j},t|x_{i})=M_{i,j}^{t}\,} One of the main ideas of the diffusion framework is that running the chain forward in time (taking larger and larger powers of M {\displaystyle M} ) reveals the geometric structure of X {\displaystyle X} at larger and larger scales (the diffusion process). Specifically, the notion of a cluster in the data set is quantified as a region in which the probability of escaping this region is low (within a certain time t). Therefore, t not only serves as a time parameter, but it also has the dual role of scale parameter. The eigendecomposition of the matrix M t {\displaystyle M^{t}} yields M i , j t = ∑ l λ l t ψ l ( x i ) ϕ l ( x j ) {\displaystyle M_{i,j}^{t}=\sum _{l}\lambda _{l}^{t}\psi _{l}(x_{i})\phi _{l}(x_{j})\,} where { λ l } {\displaystyle \{\lambda _{l}\}} is the sequence of eigenvalues of M {\displaystyle M} and { ψ l } {\displaystyle \{\psi _{l}\}} and { ϕ l } {\displaystyle \{\phi _{l}\}} are the biorthogonal left and right eigenvectors respectively. Due to the spectrum decay of the eigenvalues, only a few terms are necessary to achieve a given relative accuracy in this sum. ==== Parameter α and the diffusion operator ==== The reason to introduce the normalization step involving α {\displaystyle \alpha } is to tune the influence of the data point density on the infinitesimal transition of the diffusion. In some applications, the sampling of the data is generally not related to the geometry of the manifold we are interested in describing. In this case, we can set α = 1 {\displaystyle \alpha =1} and the diffusion operator approximates the Laplace–Beltrami operator. We then recover the Riemannian geometry of the data set regardless of the distribution of the points. To describe the long-term behavior of the point distribution of a system of stochastic differential equations, we can use α = 0.5 {\displaystyle \alpha =0.5} and the resulting Markov chain approximates the Fokker–Planck diffusion. With α = 0 {\displaystyle \alpha =0} , it reduces to the classical graph Laplacian normalization. === Diffusion distance === The diffusion distance at time t {\displaystyle t} between two points can be measured as the similarity of two points in the observation space with the connectivity between them. It is given by D t ( x i , x j ) 2 = ∑ y ( p ( y , t | x i ) − p ( y , t | x j ) ) 2 ϕ 0 ( y ) {\displaystyle D_{t}(x_{i},x_{j})^{2}=\sum _{y}{\frac {(p(y,t|x_{i})-p(y,t|x_{j}))^{2}}{\phi _{0}(y)}}} where ϕ 0 ( y ) {\displaystyle \phi _{0}(y)} is the stationary distribution of the Markov chain, given by the first left eigenvector of M {\displaystyle M} . Explicitly: ϕ 0 ( y ) = d ( y ) ∑ z ∈ X d ( z ) {\displaystyle \phi _{0}(y)={\frac {d(y)}{\sum _{z\in X}d(z)}}} Intuitively, D t ( x i , x j ) {\displaystyle D_{t}(x_{i},x_{j})} is small if there is a large number of short paths connecting x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} and x j {\displaystyle x_{j}} . There are several interesting features associated with the diffusion distance, based on our previous discussion that t {\displaystyle t} also serves as a scale parameter: Points are closer at a given scale (as specified by D t ( x i , x j ) {\displaystyle D_{t}(x_{i},x_{j})} ) if they are highly connected in the graph, therefore emphasizing the concept of a cluster. This distance is robust to noise, since the distance between two points depends on all possible paths of length t {\displaystyle t} between the points. From a machine learning point of view, the distance takes into account all evidences linking x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} to x j {\displaystyle x_{j}} , allowing us to conclude that this distance is appropriate for the design of inference algorithms based on the majority of preponderance. === Diffusion process and low-dimensional embedding === The diffusion distance can be calculated using the eigenvectors by D t ( x i , x j ) 2 = ∑ l λ l 2 t ( ψ l ( x i ) − ψ l ( x j ) ) 2 {\displaystyle D_{t}(x_{i},x_{j})^{2}=\sum _{l}\lambda _{l}^{2t}(\psi _{l}(x_{i})-\psi _{l}(x_{j}))^{2}\,} So the eigenvectors can be used as a new set of coordinates for the data. The diffusion map is defined as: Ψ t ( x ) = ( λ 1 t ψ 1 ( x ) , λ 2 t ψ 2 ( x ) , … , λ k t ψ k ( x ) ) {\displaystyle \Psi _{t}(x)=(\lambda _{1}^{t}\psi _{1}(x),\lambda _{2}^{t}\psi _{2}(x),\ld

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  • LPBoost

    LPBoost

    Linear Programming Boosting (LPBoost) is a supervised classifier from the boosting family of classifiers. LPBoost maximizes a margin between training samples of different classes, and thus also belongs to the class of margin classifier algorithms. Consider a classification function f : X → { − 1 , 1 } , {\displaystyle f:{\mathcal {X}}\to \{-1,1\},} which classifies samples from a space X {\displaystyle {\mathcal {X}}} into one of two classes, labelled 1 and -1, respectively. LPBoost is an algorithm for learning such a classification function, given a set of training examples with known class labels. LPBoost is a machine learning technique especially suited for joint classification and feature selection in structured domains. == LPBoost overview == As in all boosting classifiers, the final classification function is of the form f ( x ) = ∑ j = 1 J α j h j ( x ) , {\displaystyle f({\boldsymbol {x}})=\sum _{j=1}^{J}\alpha _{j}h_{j}({\boldsymbol {x}}),} where α j {\displaystyle \alpha _{j}} are non-negative weightings for weak classifiers h j : X → { − 1 , 1 } {\displaystyle h_{j}:{\mathcal {X}}\to \{-1,1\}} . Each individual weak classifier h j {\displaystyle h_{j}} may be just a little bit better than random, but the resulting linear combination of many weak classifiers can perform very well. LPBoost constructs f {\displaystyle f} by starting with an empty set of weak classifiers. Iteratively, a single weak classifier to add to the set of considered weak classifiers is selected, added and all the weights α {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\alpha }}} for the current set of weak classifiers are adjusted. This is repeated until no weak classifiers to add remain. The property that all classifier weights are adjusted in each iteration is known as totally-corrective property. Early boosting methods, such as AdaBoost do not have this property and converge slower. == Linear program == More generally, let H = { h ( ⋅ ; ω ) | ω ∈ Ω } {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}=\{h(\cdot ;\omega )|\omega \in \Omega \}} be the possibly infinite set of weak classifiers, also termed hypotheses. One way to write down the problem LPBoost solves is as a linear program with infinitely many variables. The primal linear program of LPBoost, optimizing over the non-negative weight vector α {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\alpha }}} , the non-negative vector ξ {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\xi }}} of slack variables and the margin ρ {\displaystyle \rho } is the following. min α , ξ , ρ − ρ + D ∑ n = 1 ℓ ξ n sb.t. ∑ ω ∈ Ω y n α ω h ( x n ; ω ) + ξ n ≥ ρ , n = 1 , … , ℓ , ∑ ω ∈ Ω α ω = 1 , ξ n ≥ 0 , n = 1 , … , ℓ , α ω ≥ 0 , ω ∈ Ω , ρ ∈ R . {\displaystyle {\begin{array}{cl}{\underset {{\boldsymbol {\alpha }},{\boldsymbol {\xi }},\rho }{\min }}&-\rho +D\sum _{n=1}^{\ell }\xi _{n}\\{\textrm {sb.t.}}&\sum _{\omega \in \Omega }y_{n}\alpha _{\omega }h({\boldsymbol {x}}_{n};\omega )+\xi _{n}\geq \rho ,\qquad n=1,\dots ,\ell ,\\&\sum _{\omega \in \Omega }\alpha _{\omega }=1,\\&\xi _{n}\geq 0,\qquad n=1,\dots ,\ell ,\\&\alpha _{\omega }\geq 0,\qquad \omega \in \Omega ,\\&\rho \in {\mathbb {R} }.\end{array}}} Note the effects of slack variables ξ ≥ 0 {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\xi }}\geq 0} : their one-norm is penalized in the objective function by a constant factor D {\displaystyle D} , which—if small enough—always leads to a primal feasible linear program. Here we adopted the notation of a parameter space Ω {\displaystyle \Omega } , such that for a choice ω ∈ Ω {\displaystyle \omega \in \Omega } the weak classifier h ( ⋅ ; ω ) : X → { − 1 , 1 } {\displaystyle h(\cdot ;\omega ):{\mathcal {X}}\to \{-1,1\}} is uniquely defined. When the above linear program was first written down in early publications about boosting methods it was disregarded as intractable due to the large number of variables α {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\alpha }}} . Only later it was discovered that such linear programs can indeed be solved efficiently using the classic technique of column generation. === Column generation for LPBoost === In a linear program a column corresponds to a primal variable. Column generation is a technique to solve large linear programs. It typically works in a restricted problem, dealing only with a subset of variables. By generating primal variables iteratively and on-demand, eventually the original unrestricted problem with all variables is recovered. By cleverly choosing the columns to generate the problem can be solved such that while still guaranteeing the obtained solution to be optimal for the original full problem, only a small fraction of columns has to be created. ==== LPBoost dual problem ==== Columns in the primal linear program corresponds to rows in the dual linear program. The equivalent dual linear program of LPBoost is the following linear program. max λ , γ γ sb.t. ∑ n = 1 ℓ y n h ( x n ; ω ) λ n + γ ≤ 0 , ω ∈ Ω , 0 ≤ λ n ≤ D , n = 1 , … , ℓ , ∑ n = 1 ℓ λ n = 1 , γ ∈ R . {\displaystyle {\begin{array}{cl}{\underset {{\boldsymbol {\lambda }},\gamma }{\max }}&\gamma \\{\textrm {sb.t.}}&\sum _{n=1}^{\ell }y_{n}h({\boldsymbol {x}}_{n};\omega )\lambda _{n}+\gamma \leq 0,\qquad \omega \in \Omega ,\\&0\leq \lambda _{n}\leq D,\qquad n=1,\dots ,\ell ,\\&\sum _{n=1}^{\ell }\lambda _{n}=1,\\&\gamma \in \mathbb {R} .\end{array}}} For linear programs the optimal value of the primal and dual problem are equal. For the above primal and dual problems, the optimal value is equal to the negative 'soft margin'. The soft margin is the size of the margin separating positive from negative training instances minus positive slack variables that carry penalties for margin-violating samples. Thus, the soft margin may be positive although not all samples are linearly separated by the classification function. The latter is called the 'hard margin' or 'realized margin'. ==== Convergence criterion ==== Consider a subset of the satisfied constraints in the dual problem. For any finite subset we can solve the linear program and thus satisfy all constraints. If we could prove that of all the constraints which we did not add to the dual problem no single constraint is violated, we would have proven that solving our restricted problem is equivalent to solving the original problem. More formally, let γ ∗ {\displaystyle \gamma ^{}} be the optimal objective function value for any restricted instance. Then, we can formulate a search problem for the 'most violated constraint' in the original problem space, namely finding ω ∗ ∈ Ω {\displaystyle \omega ^{}\in \Omega } as ω ∗ = argmax ω ∈ Ω ∑ n = 1 ℓ y n h ( x n ; ω ) λ n . {\displaystyle \omega ^{}={\underset {\omega \in \Omega }{\textrm {argmax}}}\sum _{n=1}^{\ell }y_{n}h({\boldsymbol {x}}_{n};\omega )\lambda _{n}.} That is, we search the space H {\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}} for a single decision stump h ( ⋅ ; ω ∗ ) {\displaystyle h(\cdot ;\omega ^{})} maximizing the left hand side of the dual constraint. If the constraint cannot be violated by any choice of decision stump, none of the corresponding constraint can be active in the original problem and the restricted problem is equivalent. ==== Penalization constant ==== D {\displaystyle D} The positive value of penalization constant D {\displaystyle D} has to be found using model selection techniques. However, if we choose D = 1 ℓ ν {\displaystyle D={\frac {1}{\ell \nu }}} , where ℓ {\displaystyle \ell } is the number of training samples and 0 < ν < 1 {\displaystyle 0<\nu <1} , then the new parameter ν {\displaystyle \nu } has the following properties. ν {\displaystyle \nu } is an upper bound on the fraction of training errors; that is, if k {\displaystyle k} denotes the number of misclassified training samples, then k ℓ ≤ ν {\displaystyle {\frac {k}{\ell }}\leq \nu } . ν {\displaystyle \nu } is a lower bound on the fraction of training samples outside or on the margin. == Algorithm == Input: Training set X = { x 1 , … , x ℓ } {\displaystyle X=\{{\boldsymbol {x}}_{1},\dots ,{\boldsymbol {x}}_{\ell }\}} , x i ∈ X {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {x}}_{i}\in {\mathcal {X}}} Training labels Y = { y 1 , … , y ℓ } {\displaystyle Y=\{y_{1},\dots ,y_{\ell }\}} , y i ∈ { − 1 , 1 } {\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{-1,1\}} Convergence threshold θ ≥ 0 {\displaystyle \theta \geq 0} Output: Classification function f : X → { − 1 , 1 } {\displaystyle f:{\mathcal {X}}\to \{-1,1\}} Initialization Weights, uniform λ n ← 1 ℓ , n = 1 , … , ℓ {\displaystyle \lambda _{n}\leftarrow {\frac {1}{\ell }},\quad n=1,\dots ,\ell } Edge γ ← 0 {\displaystyle \gamma \leftarrow 0} Hypothesis count J ← 1 {\displaystyle J\leftarrow 1} Iterate h ^ ← argmax ω ∈ Ω ∑ n = 1 ℓ y n h ( x n ; ω ) λ n {\displaystyle {\hat {h}}\leftarrow {\underset {\omega \in \Omega }{\textrm {argmax}}}\sum _{n=1}^{\ell }y_{n}h({\boldsymbol {x}}_{n};\omega )\lambda _{n}} if ∑ n = 1 ℓ y n h ^ ( x n ) λ n + γ ≤ θ {\displaystyle \sum _{n=1}^{\ell }y_{n}{\hat {h}}({\boldsymbol {x}}_{n})\lambda _{n}+\gamma \leq \theta } then break h J ← h ^ {\displaystyle h_{J}\leftarrow {\hat {h}}} J

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  • Jpred

    Jpred

    Jpred v.4 is the latest version of the JPred Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Server which provides predictions by the JNet algorithm, one of the most accurate methods for secondary structure prediction, that has existed since 1998 in different versions. In addition to protein secondary structure, JPred also makes predictions of solvent accessibility and coiled-coil regions. The JPred service runs up to 134 000 jobs per month and has carried out over 2 million predictions in total for users in 179 countries. == JPred 2 == The static HTML pages of JPred 2 are still available for reference. == JPred 3 == The JPred v3 followed on from previous versions of JPred developed and maintained by James Cuff and Jonathan Barber (see JPred References). This release added new functionality and fixed many bugs. The highlights are: New, friendlier user interface Retrained and optimised version of Jnet (v2) - mean secondary structure prediction accuracy of >81% Batch submission of jobs Better error checking of input sequences/alignments Predictions now (optionally) returned via e-mail Users may provide their own query names for each submission JPred now makes a prediction even when there are no PSI-BLAST hits to the query PS/PDF output now incorporates all the predictions == JPred 4 == The current version of JPred (v4) has the following improvements and updates incorporated: Retrained on the latest UniRef90 and SCOPe/ASTRAL version of Jnet (v2.3.1) - mean secondary structure prediction accuracy of >82%. Upgraded the Web Server to the latest technologies (Bootstrap framework, JavaScript) and updating the web pages – improving the design and usability through implementing responsive technologies. Added RESTful API and mass-submission and results retrieval scripts - resulting in peak throughput above 20,000 predictions per day. Added prediction jobs monitoring tools. Upgraded the results reporting – both, on the web-site, and through the optional email summary reports: improved batch submission, added results summary preview through Jalview results visualization summary in SVG and adding full multiple sequence alignments into the reports. Improved help-pages, incorporating tool-tips, and adding one-page step-by-step tutorials. Sequence residues are categorised or assigned to one of the secondary structure elements, such as alpha-helix, beta-sheet and coiled-coil. Jnet uses two neural networks for its prediction. The first network is fed with a window of 17 residues over each amino acid in the alignment plus a conservation number. It uses a hidden layer of nine nodes and has three output nodes, one for each secondary structure element. The second network is fed with a window of 19 residues (the result of first network) plus the conservation number. It has a hidden layer with nine nodes and has three output nodes.

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  • Sentence embedding

    Sentence embedding

    In natural language processing, a sentence embedding is a representation of a sentence as a vector of numbers which encodes meaningful semantic information. State of the art embeddings are based on the learned hidden layer representation of dedicated sentence transformer models. BERT pioneered an approach involving the use of a dedicated [CLS] token prepended to the beginning of each sentence inputted into the model; the final hidden state vector of this token encodes information about the sentence and can be fine-tuned for use in sentence classification tasks. In practice however, BERT's sentence embedding with the [CLS] token achieves poor performance, often worse than simply averaging non-contextual word embeddings. SBERT later achieved superior sentence embedding performance by fine tuning BERT's [CLS] token embeddings through the usage of a siamese neural network architecture on the SNLI dataset. Other approaches are loosely based on the idea of distributional semantics applied to sentences. Skip-Thought trains an encoder-decoder structure for the task of neighboring sentences predictions; this has been shown to achieve worse performance than approaches such as InferSent or SBERT. An alternative direction is to aggregate word embeddings, such as those returned by Word2vec, into sentence embeddings. The most straightforward approach is to simply compute the average of word vectors, known as continuous bag-of-words (CBOW). However, more elaborate solutions based on word vector quantization have also been proposed. One such approach is the vector of locally aggregated word embeddings (VLAWE), which demonstrated performance improvements in downstream text classification tasks. == Applications == In recent years, sentence embedding has seen a growing level of interest due to its applications in natural language queryable knowledge bases through the usage of vector indexing for semantic search. LangChain for instance utilizes sentence transformers for purposes of indexing documents. In particular, an indexing is generated by generating embeddings for chunks of documents and storing (document chunk, embedding) tuples. Then given a query in natural language, the embedding for the query can be generated. A top k similarity search algorithm is then used between the query embedding and the document chunk embeddings to retrieve the most relevant document chunks as context information for question answering tasks. This approach is also known formally as retrieval-augmented generation. Though not as predominant as BERTScore, sentence embeddings are commonly used for sentence similarity evaluation which sees common use for the task of optimizing a Large language model's generation parameters is often performed via comparing candidate sentences against reference sentences. By using the cosine-similarity of the sentence embeddings of candidate and reference sentences as the evaluation function, a grid-search algorithm can be utilized to automate hyperparameter optimization. == Evaluation == A way of testing sentence encodings is to apply them on Sentences Involving Compositional Knowledge (SICK) corpus for both entailment (SICK-E) and relatedness (SICK-R). In the best results are obtained using a BiLSTM network trained on the Stanford Natural Language Inference (SNLI) Corpus. The Pearson correlation coefficient for SICK-R is 0.885 and the result for SICK-E is 86.3. A slight improvement over previous scores is presented in: SICK-R: 0.888 and SICK-E: 87.8 using a concatenation of bidirectional Gated recurrent unit.

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  • Least-squares support vector machine

    Least-squares support vector machine

    Least-squares support-vector machines (LS-SVM) for statistics and in statistical modeling, are least-squares versions of support-vector machines (SVM), which are a set of related supervised learning methods that analyze data and recognize patterns, and which are used for classification and regression analysis. In this version one finds the solution by solving a set of linear equations instead of a convex quadratic programming (QP) problem for classical SVMs. Least-squares SVM classifiers were proposed by Johan Suykens and Joos Vandewalle. LS-SVMs are a class of kernel-based learning methods. == From support-vector machine to least-squares support-vector machine == Given a training set { x i , y i } i = 1 N {\displaystyle \{x_{i},y_{i}\}_{i=1}^{N}} with input data x i ∈ R n {\displaystyle x_{i}\in \mathbb {R} ^{n}} and corresponding binary class labels y i ∈ { − 1 , + 1 } {\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{-1,+1\}} , the SVM classifier, according to Vapnik's original formulation, satisfies the following conditions: { w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ≥ 1 , if y i = + 1 , w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ≤ − 1 , if y i = − 1 , {\displaystyle {\begin{cases}w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b\geq 1,&{\text{if }}\quad y_{i}=+1,\\w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b\leq -1,&{\text{if }}\quad y_{i}=-1,\end{cases}}} which is equivalent to y i [ w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ] ≥ 1 , i = 1 , … , N , {\displaystyle y_{i}\left[{w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b}\right]\geq 1,\quad i=1,\ldots ,N,} where ϕ ( x ) {\displaystyle \phi (x)} is the nonlinear map from original space to the high- or infinite-dimensional space. === Inseparable data === In case such a separating hyperplane does not exist, we introduce so-called slack variables ξ i {\displaystyle \xi _{i}} such that { y i [ w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ] ≥ 1 − ξ i , i = 1 , … , N , ξ i ≥ 0 , i = 1 , … , N . {\displaystyle {\begin{cases}y_{i}\left[{w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b}\right]\geq 1-\xi _{i},&i=1,\ldots ,N,\\\xi _{i}\geq 0,&i=1,\ldots ,N.\end{cases}}} According to the structural risk minimization principle, the risk bound is minimized by the following minimization problem: min J 1 ( w , ξ ) = 1 2 w T w + c ∑ i = 1 N ξ i , {\displaystyle \min J_{1}(w,\xi )={\frac {1}{2}}w^{T}w+c\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\xi _{i},} Subject to { y i [ w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ] ≥ 1 − ξ i , i = 1 , … , N , ξ i ≥ 0 , i = 1 , … , N , {\displaystyle {\text{Subject to }}{\begin{cases}y_{i}\left[{w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b}\right]\geq 1-\xi _{i},&i=1,\ldots ,N,\\\xi _{i}\geq 0,&i=1,\ldots ,N,\end{cases}}} To solve this problem, we could construct the Lagrangian function: L 1 ( w , b , ξ , α , β ) = 1 2 w T w + c ∑ i = 1 N ξ i − ∑ i = 1 N α i { y i [ w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ] − 1 + ξ i } − ∑ i = 1 N β i ξ i , {\displaystyle L_{1}(w,b,\xi ,\alpha ,\beta )={\frac {1}{2}}w^{T}w+c\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}{\xi _{i}}-\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\alpha _{i}\left\{y_{i}\left[{w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b}\right]-1+\xi _{i}\right\}-\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\beta _{i}\xi _{i},} where α i ≥ 0 , β i ≥ 0 ( i = 1 , … , N ) {\displaystyle \alpha _{i}\geq 0,\ \beta _{i}\geq 0\ (i=1,\ldots ,N)} are the Lagrangian multipliers. The optimal point will be in the saddle point of the Lagrangian function, and then we obtain By substituting w {\displaystyle w} by its expression in the Lagrangian formed from the appropriate objective and constraints, we will get the following quadratic programming problem: max Q 1 ( α ) = − 1 2 ∑ i , j = 1 N α i α j y i y j K ( x i , x j ) + ∑ i = 1 N α i , {\displaystyle \max Q_{1}(\alpha )=-{\frac {1}{2}}\sum \limits _{i,j=1}^{N}{\alpha _{i}\alpha _{j}y_{i}y_{j}K(x_{i},x_{j})}+\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\alpha _{i},} where K ( x i , x j ) = ⟨ ϕ ( x i ) , ϕ ( x j ) ⟩ {\displaystyle K(x_{i},x_{j})=\left\langle \phi (x_{i}),\phi (x_{j})\right\rangle } is called the kernel function. Solving this QP problem subject to constraints in (1), we will get the hyperplane in the high-dimensional space and hence the classifier in the original space. === Least-squares SVM formulation === The least-squares version of the SVM classifier is obtained by reformulating the minimization problem as min J 2 ( w , b , e ) = μ 2 w T w + ζ 2 ∑ i = 1 N e i 2 , {\displaystyle \min J_{2}(w,b,e)={\frac {\mu }{2}}w^{T}w+{\frac {\zeta }{2}}\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}^{2},} subject to the equality constraints y i [ w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ] = 1 − e i , i = 1 , … , N . {\displaystyle y_{i}\left[{w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b}\right]=1-e_{i},\quad i=1,\ldots ,N.} The least-squares SVM (LS-SVM) classifier formulation above implicitly corresponds to a regression interpretation with binary targets y i = ± 1 {\displaystyle y_{i}=\pm 1} . Using y i 2 = 1 {\displaystyle y_{i}^{2}=1} , we have ∑ i = 1 N e i 2 = ∑ i = 1 N ( y i e i ) 2 = ∑ i = 1 N e i 2 = ∑ i = 1 N ( y i − ( w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ) ) 2 , {\displaystyle \sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}^{2}=\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}(y_{i}e_{i})^{2}=\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}^{2}=\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\left(y_{i}-(w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b)\right)^{2},} with e i = y i − ( w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ) . {\displaystyle e_{i}=y_{i}-(w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b).} Notice, that this error would also make sense for least-squares data fitting, so that the same end results holds for the regression case. Hence the LS-SVM classifier formulation is equivalent to J 2 ( w , b , e ) = μ E W + ζ E D {\displaystyle J_{2}(w,b,e)=\mu E_{W}+\zeta E_{D}} with E W = 1 2 w T w {\displaystyle E_{W}={\frac {1}{2}}w^{T}w} and E D = 1 2 ∑ i = 1 N e i 2 = 1 2 ∑ i = 1 N ( y i − ( w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ) ) 2 . {\displaystyle E_{D}={\frac {1}{2}}\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}^{2}={\frac {1}{2}}\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\left(y_{i}-(w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b)\right)^{2}.} Both μ {\displaystyle \mu } and ζ {\displaystyle \zeta } should be considered as hyperparameters to tune the amount of regularization versus the sum squared error. The solution does only depend on the ratio γ = ζ / μ {\displaystyle \gamma =\zeta /\mu } , therefore the original formulation uses only γ {\displaystyle \gamma } as tuning parameter. We use both μ {\displaystyle \mu } and ζ {\displaystyle \zeta } as parameters in order to provide a Bayesian interpretation to LS-SVM. The solution of LS-SVM regressor will be obtained after we construct the Lagrangian function: { L 2 ( w , b , e , α ) = J 2 ( w , e ) − ∑ i = 1 N α i { [ w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ] + e i − y i } , = 1 2 w T w + γ 2 ∑ i = 1 N e i 2 − ∑ i = 1 N α i { [ w T ϕ ( x i ) + b ] + e i − y i } , {\displaystyle {\begin{cases}L_{2}(w,b,e,\alpha )\;=J_{2}(w,e)-\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\alpha _{i}\left\{{\left[{w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b}\right]+e_{i}-y_{i}}\right\},\\\quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \;={\frac {1}{2}}w^{T}w+{\frac {\gamma }{2}}\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}^{2}-\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\alpha _{i}\left\{\left[w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b\right]+e_{i}-y_{i}\right\},\end{cases}}} where α i ∈ R {\displaystyle \alpha _{i}\in \mathbb {R} } are the Lagrange multipliers. The conditions for optimality are { ∂ L 2 ∂ w = 0 → w = ∑ i = 1 N α i ϕ ( x i ) , ∂ L 2 ∂ b = 0 → ∑ i = 1 N α i = 0 , ∂ L 2 ∂ e i = 0 → α i = γ e i , i = 1 , … , N , ∂ L 2 ∂ α i = 0 → y i = w T ϕ ( x i ) + b + e i , i = 1 , … , N . {\displaystyle {\begin{cases}{\frac {\partial L_{2}}{\partial w}}=0\quad \to \quad w=\sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\alpha _{i}\phi (x_{i}),\\{\frac {\partial L_{2}}{\partial b}}=0\quad \to \quad \sum \limits _{i=1}^{N}\alpha _{i}=0,\\{\frac {\partial L_{2}}{\partial e_{i}}}=0\quad \to \quad \alpha _{i}=\gamma e_{i},\;i=1,\ldots ,N,\\{\frac {\partial L_{2}}{\partial \alpha _{i}}}=0\quad \to \quad y_{i}=w^{T}\phi (x_{i})+b+e_{i},\,i=1,\ldots ,N.\end{cases}}} Elimination of w {\displaystyle w} and e {\displaystyle e} will yield a linear system instead of a quadratic programming problem: [ 0 1 N T 1 N Ω + γ − 1 I N ] [ b α ] = [ 0 Y ] , {\displaystyle \left[{\begin{matrix}0&1_{N}^{T}\\1_{N}&\Omega +\gamma ^{-1}I_{N}\end{matrix}}\right]\left[{\begin{matrix}b\\\alpha \end{matrix}}\right]=\left[{\begin{matrix}0\\Y\end{matrix}}\right],} with Y = [ y 1 , … , y N ] T {\displaystyle Y=[y_{1},\ldots ,y_{N}]^{T}} , 1 N = [ 1 , … , 1 ] T {\displaystyle 1_{N}=[1,\ldots ,1]^{T}} and α = [ α 1 , … , α N ] T {\displaystyle \alpha =[\alpha _{1},\ldots ,\alpha _{N}]^{T}} . Here, I N {\displaystyle I_{N}} is an N × N {\displaystyle N\times N} identity matrix, and Ω ∈ R N × N {\displaystyle \Omega \in \mathbb {R} ^{N\times N}} is the kernel matrix defined by Ω i j = ϕ ( x i ) T ϕ ( x j ) = K ( x i , x j ) {\displaystyle \Omega _{ij}=\phi (x_{i})^{T}\phi (x_{j})=K(x_{i},x_{j})} . === Kernel function K === For the kernel function K(•, •) one typically has the following choices: Linear kernel : K ( x , x i ) = x i T x , {\displaystyle K(x,x_{i})=x_{i}^{T}x,} Polynomial kernel of degree d {\displaystyle d} : K ( x , x i ) = ( 1 + x i T x / c ) d , {\displaystyle K(x,x_{i})=\left({1+x_{i}^{T}x/c}\right)^{d},} Radial basis function RBF kernel : K ( x , x i ) = exp ⁡ ( − ‖ x − x i ‖ 2 / σ 2 ) , {\displaystyle K(x,x_{i})=\exp \left({-\left\|{x-x_{i}}\right\|^{2}/\sigma ^{2}}\right),} MLP kernel : K ( x , x i ) = tanh ⁡ ( k x i T x + θ ) , {\displaystyle K(x,x_{i})=\tanh \left({k

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  • Targeted maximum likelihood estimation

    Targeted maximum likelihood estimation

    Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) (also more accurately referred to as Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimation) is a general statistical estimation framework for causal inference and semiparametric models. TMLE combines ideas from maximum likelihood estimation, semiparametric efficiency theory, and machine learning. It was introduced by Mark J. van der Laan and colleagues in the mid-2000s as a method that yields asymptotically efficient plug-in estimators while allowing the use of flexible, data-adaptive algorithms such as ensemble machine learning for nuisance parameter estimation. TMLE is used in epidemiology, biostatistics, and the social sciences to estimate causal effects in observational and experimental studies. Applications of TMLE include Longitudinal TMLE (LTMLE) for time-varying treatments and confounders. Variations in how the targeting step in TMLE is carried out have resulted in various versions of TMLE such as Collaborative TMLE (CTMLE) and Adaptive TMLE for improved finite-sample performance and automated variable selection. == History == The TMLE framework was first described by van der Laan and Rubin (2006) as a general approach for the construction of efficient plug-in estimators of smooth features of the data density. It was demonstrated in the context of causal inference and missing data problems. It was developed to address limitations of traditional doubly robust methods, such as Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW), by respecting the plug-in principle in the sense that it respects that the target parameter is a function of the data density that is an element of the statistical model. TMLE estimates the data density or relevant parts of it with machine learning and targets these machine learning fits before it is plugged in the target parameter mapping. In this manner, a TMLE always respects global knowledge and satisfies known bounds such as that the target parameter is a probability . Since its introduction, TMLE has been developed in a series of theoretical and applied papers, culminating in book-length treatments of the method and its applications to survival analysis, adaptive designs, and longitudinal data. == Methodology == At its core, TMLE is a two-step estimation procedure: Initial estimation: Machine learning methods (such as the Super Learner ensemble) are used to obtain flexible estimates of nuisance parameters, such as outcome regressions and propensity scores. Targeting step: The initial estimate is updated by solving a score equation (the efficient influence function) so that the final estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and efficient under mild regularity conditions. The targeted machine learning fit is then mapped into the corresponding estimator of the target parameter by simply plugging it in the target parameter mapping. This approach balances the bias–variance trade-off by combining data-adaptive estimation with semiparametric efficiency theory. TMLE is doubly robust, meaning it remains consistent if either the outcome model or the treatment model is consistently estimated. === Formula === Here we explain the TMLE of the average treatment effect of a binary treatment on an outcome adjusting for baseline covariates. Consider i.i.d. observations O i = ( W i , A i , Y i ) {\displaystyle O_{i}=(W_{i},A_{i},Y_{i})} from a distribution P 0 {\displaystyle P_{0}} , where W {\displaystyle W} are baseline covariates, A {\displaystyle A} is a binary treatment, and Y {\displaystyle Y} is an outcome. Let Q ¯ ( a , w ) = E [ Y ∣ A = a , W = w ] {\displaystyle {\bar {Q}}(a,w)=\mathbb {E} [Y\mid A=a,W=w]} represent the outcome model and g ( a ∣ w ) = P ( A = a ∣ W = w ) {\displaystyle g(a\mid w)=P(A=a\mid W=w)} represent the propensity score. The average treatment effect (ATE) is given by ψ 0 = E { Q ¯ ( 1 , W ) − Q ¯ ( 0 , W ) } . {\displaystyle \psi _{0}=\mathbb {E} \{{\bar {Q}}(1,W)-{\bar {Q}}(0,W)\}.} A basic TMLE for the ATE proceeds as follows: Step 1: Estimate initial models. Obtain estimates Q ¯ ^ ( a , w ) {\displaystyle {\hat {\bar {Q}}}(a,w)} and g ^ ( a ∣ w ) {\displaystyle {\hat {g}}(a\mid w)} , often using flexible methods such as Super Learner. Step 2: Compute the clever covariate. Define: H ( A , W ) = A g ^ ( 1 ∣ W ) − 1 − A g ^ ( 0 ∣ W ) . {\displaystyle H(A,W)={\frac {A}{{\hat {g}}(1\mid W)}}-{\frac {1-A}{{\hat {g}}(0\mid W)}}.} Step 3: Estimate the fluctuation parameter. Fit a logistic regression of Y {\displaystyle Y} on H ( A , W ) {\displaystyle H(A,W)} with logit ⁡ ( Q ¯ ^ ( A , W ) ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {logit} ({\hat {\bar {Q}}}(A,W))} as offset. This yields ε ^ {\displaystyle {\hat {\varepsilon }}} , the MLE that solves the score equation: 1 n ∑ i = 1 n H ( A i , W i ) { Y i − Q ¯ ^ ε ( A i , W i ) } = 0. {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}H(A_{i},W_{i}){\big \{}Y_{i}-{\hat {\bar {Q}}}^{\varepsilon }(A_{i},W_{i}){\big \}}=0.} Step 4: Update the initial estimate. Apply the "blip" to obtain the targeted estimate: Q ¯ ^ ∗ ( A , W ) = expit ⁡ ( logit ⁡ ( Q ¯ ^ ( A , W ) ) + ε ^ H ( A , W ) ) . {\displaystyle {\hat {\bar {Q}}}^{}(A,W)=\operatorname {expit} {\Big (}\operatorname {logit} {\big (}{\hat {\bar {Q}}}(A,W){\big )}+{\hat {\varepsilon }}\,H(A,W){\Big )}.} Step 5: Compute the TMLE. The ATE estimate is: ψ ^ TMLE = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n [ Q ¯ ^ ∗ ( 1 , W i ) − Q ¯ ^ ∗ ( 0 , W i ) ] . {\displaystyle {\hat {\psi }}_{\text{TMLE}}={\frac {1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}{\big [}{\hat {\bar {Q}}}^{}(1,W_{i})-{\hat {\bar {Q}}}^{}(0,W_{i}){\big ]}.} Inference. The efficient influence function (EIF) for the ATE is: D ∗ ( O ) = H ( A , W ) { Y − Q ¯ ∗ ( A , W ) } + Q ¯ ∗ ( 1 , W ) − Q ¯ ∗ ( 0 , W ) − ψ . {\displaystyle D^{}(O)=H(A,W)\{Y-{\bar {Q}}^{}(A,W)\}+{\bar {Q}}^{}(1,W)-{\bar {Q}}^{}(0,W)-\psi .} The variance is estimated by σ ^ 2 = n − 1 ∑ i = 1 n ( D ∗ ( O i ) ) 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {\sigma }}^{2}=n^{-1}\sum _{i=1}^{n}{\big (}D^{}(O_{i}){\big )}^{2}} , yielding Wald-type confidence intervals ψ ^ TMLE ± z 1 − α / 2 σ ^ / n {\displaystyle {\hat {\psi }}_{\text{TMLE}}\pm z_{1-\alpha /2}\,{\hat {\sigma }}/{\sqrt {n}}} . Remark. For continuous outcomes, a linear fluctuation Q ¯ ^ ∗ = Q ¯ ^ + ε ^ H {\displaystyle {\hat {\bar {Q}}}^{}={\hat {\bar {Q}}}+{\hat {\varepsilon }}\,H} may be used instead. For bounded continuous outcomes, the logistic fluctuation (after rescaling Y {\displaystyle Y} to [ 0 , 1 ] {\displaystyle [0,1]} ) is often preferred for improved finite-sample performance. == Applications == TMLE has been applied in: Epidemiology: Estimating causal effects of exposures and interventions in observational cohort studies. Clinical trials and real-world evidence: The Targeted Learning roadmap provides a structured framework for generating and validating real-world evidence (RWE), bridging randomized trials and observational data using TMLE and related estimation techniques. This approach enables transparency, sensitivity analysis, and stronger causal inference for regulatory and clinical trial contexts. High-dimensional settings: Integration with ensemble methods for causal effect estimation. TMLE has been successfully applied in pharmacoepidemiology where a large number of covariates are automatically selected to adjust for confounding. In a study of post–myocardial infarction statin use and 1-year mortality, TMLE demonstrated robust performance relative to inverse probability weighting in scenarios with hundreds of potential confounders. == Derivatives and extensions == Longitudinal TMLE (LTMLE): A methodological extension of TMLE for longitudinal data with time-varying treatments, confounders, and censoring. It allows the estimation of dynamic treatment regimes and intervention-specific causal effects over time. This framework was originally introduced by van der Laan & Gruber (2012). Collaborative TMLE (CTMLE): Enhances finite-sample performance and variable selection by collaboratively fitting the treatment mechanism in conjunction with the target parameter. == Software == Several R packages implement TMLE and related methods: tmle: Functions for binary, categorical, and continuous outcomes. ltmle: Implementation for longitudinal data with time-varying treatments and outcomes. ctmle: Algorithms for collaborative TMLE and adaptive variable selection. SuperLearner: A theoretically grounded, cross-validated ensemble learning method that combines predictions from multiple algorithms to minimize predictive risk. Widely used in TMLE for estimating nuisance parameters. The original implementation is available as the R package SuperLearner. Recent machine learning platforms like H2O AutoML implement similar ensemble strategies, combining diverse learners in parallel and leveraging stacking and blending techniques, effectively functioning as a large-scale Super Learner.

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