Push technology, also known as server push, is a communication method where the communication is initiated by a server rather than a client. This approach is different from the "pull" method where the communication is initiated by a client. In push technology, clients can express their preferences for certain types of information or data, typically through a process known as the publish–subscribe model. In this model, a client "subscribes" to specific information channels hosted by a server. When new content becomes available on these channels, the server automatically sends, or "pushes," this information to the subscribed client. Under certain conditions, such as restrictive security policies that block incoming HTTP requests, push technology is sometimes simulated using a technique called polling. In these cases, the client periodically checks with the server to see if new information is available, rather than receiving automatic updates. == General use == Synchronous conferencing and instant messaging are examples of push services. Chat messages and sometimes files are pushed to the user as soon as they are received by the messaging service. Both decentralized peer-to-peer programs (such as WASTE) and centralized programs (such as IRC or XMPP) allow pushing files, which means the sender initiates the data transfer rather than the recipient. Email may also be a push system: SMTP is a push protocol (see Push e-mail). However, the last step—from mail server to desktop computer—typically uses a pull protocol like POP3 or IMAP. Modern e-mail clients make this step seem instantaneous by repeatedly polling the mail server, frequently checking it for new mail. The IMAP protocol includes the IDLE command, which allows the server to tell the client when new messages arrive. The original BlackBerry was the first popular example of push-email in a wireless context. Another example is the PointCast Network, which was widely covered in the 1990s. It delivered news and stock market data as a screensaver. Both Netscape and Microsoft integrated push technology through the Channel Definition Format (CDF) into their software at the height of the browser wars, but it was never very popular. CDF faded away and was removed from the browsers of the time, replaced in the 2000s with RSS (a pull system.) Other uses of push-enabled web applications include software updates distribution ("push updates"), market data distribution (stock tickers), online chat/messaging systems (webchat), auctions, online betting and gaming, sport results, monitoring consoles, and sensor network monitoring. == Examples == === Web push === The Web push proposal of the Internet Engineering Task Force is a simple protocol using HTTP version 2 to deliver real-time events, such as incoming calls or messages, which can be delivered (or "pushed") in a timely fashion. The protocol consolidates all real-time events into a single session which ensures more efficient use of network and radio resources. A single service consolidates all events, distributing those events to applications as they arrive. This requires just one session, avoiding duplicated overhead costs. Web Notifications are part of the W3C standard and define an API for end-user notifications. A notification allows alerting the user of an event, such as the delivery of an email, outside the context of a web page. As part of this standard, Push API is fully implemented in Chrome, Firefox, and Edge, and partially implemented in Safari as of February 2023. === HTTP server push === HTTP server push (also known as HTTP streaming) is a mechanism for sending unsolicited (asynchronous) data from a web server to a web browser. HTTP server push can be achieved through any of several mechanisms. As a part of HTML5 the Web Socket API allows a web server and client to communicate over a full-duplex TCP connection. Generally, the web server does not terminate a connection after response data has been served to a client. The web server leaves the connection open so that if an event occurs (for example, a change in internal data which needs to be reported to one or multiple clients), it can be sent out immediately; otherwise, the event would have to be queued until the client's next request is received. Most web servers offer this functionality via CGI (e.g., Non-Parsed Headers scripts on Apache HTTP Server). The underlying mechanism for this approach is chunked transfer encoding. Another mechanism is related to a special MIME type called multipart/x-mixed-replace, which was introduced by Netscape in 1995. Web browsers interpret this as a document that changes whenever the server pushes a new version to the client. It is still supported by Firefox, Opera, and Safari today, but it is ignored by Internet Explorer and is only partially supported by Chrome. It can be applied to HTML documents, and also for streaming images in webcam applications. The WHATWG Web Applications 1.0 proposal includes a mechanism to push content to the client. On September 1, 2006, the Opera web browser implemented this new experimental system in a feature called "Server-Sent Events". It is now part of the HTML5 standard. === Pushlet === In this technique, the server takes advantage of persistent HTTP connections, leaving the response perpetually "open" (i.e., the server never terminates the response), effectively fooling the browser to remain in "loading" mode after the initial page load could be considered complete. The server then periodically sends snippets of JavaScript to update the content of the page, thereby achieving push capability. By using this technique, the client doesn't need Java applets or other plug-ins in order to keep an open connection to the server; the client is automatically notified about new events, pushed by the server. One serious drawback to this method, however, is the lack of control the server has over the browser timing out; a page refresh is always necessary if a timeout occurs on the browser end. === Long polling === Long polling is itself not a true push; long polling is a variation of the traditional polling technique, but it allows emulating a push mechanism under circumstances where a real push is not possible, such as sites with security policies that require rejection of incoming HTTP requests. With long polling, the client requests to get more information from the server exactly as in normal polling, but with the expectation that the server may not respond immediately. If the server has no new information for the client when the poll is received, then instead of sending an empty response, the server holds the request open and waits for response information to become available. Once it does have new information, the server immediately sends an HTTP response to the client, completing the open HTTP request. Upon receipt of the server response, the client often immediately issues another server request. In this way the usual response latency (the time between when the information first becomes available and the next client request) otherwise associated with polling clients is eliminated. For example, BOSH is a popular, long-lived HTTP technique used as a long-polling alternative to a continuous TCP connection when such a connection is difficult or impossible to employ directly (e.g., in a web browser); it is also an underlying technology in the XMPP, which Apple uses for its iCloud push support. === Flash XML Socket relays === This technique, used by chat applications, makes use of the XML Socket object in a single-pixel Adobe Flash movie. Under the control of JavaScript, the client establishes a TCP connection to a unidirectional relay on the server. The relay server does not read anything from this socket; instead, it immediately sends the client a unique identifier. Next, the client makes an HTTP request to the web server, including this identifier with it. The web application can then push messages addressed to the client to a local interface of the relay server, which relays them over the Flash socket. The advantage of this approach is that it appreciates the natural read-write asymmetry that is typical of many web applications, including chat, and as a consequence it offers high efficiency. Since it does not accept data on outgoing sockets, the relay server does not need to poll outgoing TCP connections at all, making it possible to hold open tens of thousands of concurrent connections. In this model, the limit to scale is the TCP stack of the underlying server operating system. === Reliable Group Data Delivery (RGDD) === In services such as cloud computing, to increase reliability and availability of data, it is usually pushed (replicated) to several machines. For example, the Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) makes 2 extra copies of any object stored. RGDD focuses on efficiently casting an object from one location to many while saving bandwidth by sending minimal number of copies (only one in the best case) of
Digital on-screen graphic
A digital on-screen graphic, digitally originated graphic (DOG, bug, network bug, on-screen bug or screenbug) is a watermark-like station logo that most television broadcasters overlay over a portion of the screen area of their programs to identify the channel. They are thus a form of permanent visual station identification, increasing brand recognition and asserting ownership of the video signal. The graphic identifies the source of programming, even if it has been time-shifted or recorded. Many of these technologies allow viewers to skip or omit traditional between-programming station identification; thus the use of a DOG enables the station or network to enforce brand identification even when standard commercials are skipped. DOG watermarking helps to reduce off-the-air copyright infringement—for example, the distribution of a current series' episodes on DVD: the watermarked content is easily differentiated from "official" DVD releases, and can help identify not only the station from which the broadcast was captured, but usually the actual date of the broadcast as well. Graphics may be used to identify if the correct subscription is being used for a type of venue. For example, showing Sky Sports within a pub in the United Kingdom requires a more expensive subscription; a channel authorized under this subscription adds a pint glass graphic to the bottom of the screen for inspectors to see. The graphic changes at certain times, making it harder to counterfeit. On the other hand, watermarks pollute the picture, distract viewers' attention and may cover an important piece of information presented in the television program. Extremely bright watermarks may cause screen burn-in or image persistence on some types of television sets such as the now mostly discontinued and rarely used plasma and CRT displays, and currently commonly used OLED and LCD displays. Usage of visually perceptible embedded watermarks requires the program author to have a separate clean copy for archival purposes, but this practice was not common decades ago when watermarking became popular among broadcasters. Watermarks present an issue when archival videos are used for a documentary that strives to create a coherent story. In some cases, watermarks are blurred or digitally removed if possible to clean up the picture. In the absence of visually perceptible watermarks, content control can be ensured with visually imperceptible digital watermarks. In some cases, the graphic also shows the name of the current program. Some television networks may place additional logos or text alongside their DOG to advertise significant upcoming programs. For example, broadcasters of the Olympic Games (most notably United States broadcaster NBC) often add the Olympic rings to their DOG for a period of time leading up to and during the Games. == Usage == == Connections with sponsor tags == Another graphic on television usually connected with sports (particularly in North America, though not in Europe) is the sponsor tag. It shows the logos of certain sponsors, accompanied by some background relevant to the game, the network logo, announcement and music of some kind. == Usage in ham radio and television == In most countries, the ham station is required to periodically identify their amateur-television transmission. Such stations frequently overlay their callsign on the signal instead of placing a card in the background. Most hams use homebuilt devices or old consumer character generators to generate such identifications rather than using graphical superimposes of high cost to do so. Only rarely one can see real graphics, as the callsign is usually written in the "OSD font". == Live DOGs by hobbyists == One of the easiest and most sought-after devices used to generate DOGs by hobbyists is the 1980s vintage Sony XV-T500 video superimposer. This device can luma-key a signal, capture a still frame into memory and then overlay the keyed graphic in one of eight colors onto any CVBS signal. Another method commonly used by hobbyists and even low-budgeted television stations was Amiga computers with genlock interfaces.
Growth function
The growth function, also called the shatter coefficient or the shattering number, measures the richness of a set family or class of functions. It is especially used in the context of statistical learning theory, where it is used to study properties of statistical learning methods. The term 'growth function' was coined by Vapnik and Chervonenkis in their 1968 paper, where they also proved many of its properties. It is a basic concept in machine learning. == Definitions == === Set-family definition === Let H {\displaystyle H} be a set family (a set of sets) and C {\displaystyle C} a set. Their intersection is defined as the following set-family: H ∩ C := { h ∩ C ∣ h ∈ H } {\displaystyle H\cap C:=\{h\cap C\mid h\in H\}} The intersection-size (also called the index) of H {\displaystyle H} with respect to C {\displaystyle C} is | H ∩ C | {\displaystyle |H\cap C|} . If a set C m {\displaystyle C_{m}} has m {\displaystyle m} elements then the index is at most 2 m {\displaystyle 2^{m}} . If the index is exactly 2m then the set C {\displaystyle C} is said to be shattered by H {\displaystyle H} , because H ∩ C {\displaystyle H\cap C} contains all the subsets of C {\displaystyle C} , i.e.: | H ∩ C | = 2 | C | , {\displaystyle |H\cap C|=2^{|C|},} The growth function measures the size of H ∩ C {\displaystyle H\cap C} as a function of | C | {\displaystyle |C|} . Formally: Growth ( H , m ) := max C : | C | = m | H ∩ C | {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m):=\max _{C:|C|=m}|H\cap C|} === Hypothesis-class definition === Equivalently, let H {\displaystyle H} be a hypothesis-class (a set of binary functions) and C {\displaystyle C} a set with m {\displaystyle m} elements. The restriction of H {\displaystyle H} to C {\displaystyle C} is the set of binary functions on C {\displaystyle C} that can be derived from H {\displaystyle H} : H C := { ( h ( x 1 ) , … , h ( x m ) ) ∣ h ∈ H , x i ∈ C } {\displaystyle H_{C}:=\{(h(x_{1}),\ldots ,h(x_{m}))\mid h\in H,x_{i}\in C\}} The growth function measures the size of H C {\displaystyle H_{C}} as a function of | C | {\displaystyle |C|} : Growth ( H , m ) := max C : | C | = m | H C | {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m):=\max _{C:|C|=m}|H_{C}|} == Examples == 1. The domain is the real line R {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} } . The set-family H {\displaystyle H} contains all the half-lines (rays) from a given number to positive infinity, i.e., all sets of the form { x > x 0 ∣ x ∈ R } {\displaystyle \{x>x_{0}\mid x\in \mathbb {R} \}} for some x 0 ∈ R {\displaystyle x_{0}\in \mathbb {R} } . For any set C {\displaystyle C} of m {\displaystyle m} real numbers, the intersection H ∩ C {\displaystyle H\cap C} contains m + 1 {\displaystyle m+1} sets: the empty set, the set containing the largest element of C {\displaystyle C} , the set containing the two largest elements of C {\displaystyle C} , and so on. Therefore: Growth ( H , m ) = m + 1 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)=m+1} . The same is true whether H {\displaystyle H} contains open half-lines, closed half-lines, or both. 2. The domain is the segment [ 0 , 1 ] {\displaystyle [0,1]} . The set-family H {\displaystyle H} contains all the open sets. For any finite set C {\displaystyle C} of m {\displaystyle m} real numbers, the intersection H ∩ C {\displaystyle H\cap C} contains all possible subsets of C {\displaystyle C} . There are 2 m {\displaystyle 2^{m}} such subsets, so Growth ( H , m ) = 2 m {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)=2^{m}} . 3. The domain is the Euclidean space R n {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} ^{n}} . The set-family H {\displaystyle H} contains all the half-spaces of the form: x ⋅ ϕ ≥ 1 {\displaystyle x\cdot \phi \geq 1} , where ϕ {\displaystyle \phi } is a fixed vector. Then Growth ( H , m ) = Comp ( n , m ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)=\operatorname {Comp} (n,m)} , where Comp is the number of components in a partitioning of an n-dimensional space by m hyperplanes. 4. The domain is the real line R {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} } . The set-family H {\displaystyle H} contains all the real intervals, i.e., all sets of the form { x ∈ [ x 0 , x 1 ] | x ∈ R } {\displaystyle \{x\in [x_{0},x_{1}]|x\in \mathbb {R} \}} for some x 0 , x 1 ∈ R {\displaystyle x_{0},x_{1}\in \mathbb {R} } . For any set C {\displaystyle C} of m {\displaystyle m} real numbers, the intersection H ∩ C {\displaystyle H\cap C} contains all runs of between 0 and m {\displaystyle m} consecutive elements of C {\displaystyle C} . The number of such runs is ( m + 1 2 ) + 1 {\displaystyle {m+1 \choose 2}+1} , so Growth ( H , m ) = ( m + 1 2 ) + 1 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)={m+1 \choose 2}+1} . == Polynomial or exponential == The main property that makes the growth function interesting is that it can be either polynomial or exponential - nothing in-between. The following is a property of the intersection-size: If, for some set C m {\displaystyle C_{m}} of size m {\displaystyle m} , and for some number n ≤ m {\displaystyle n\leq m} , | H ∩ C m | ≥ Comp ( n , m ) {\displaystyle |H\cap C_{m}|\geq \operatorname {Comp} (n,m)} - then, there exists a subset C n ⊆ C m {\displaystyle C_{n}\subseteq C_{m}} of size n {\displaystyle n} such that | H ∩ C n | = 2 n {\displaystyle |H\cap C_{n}|=2^{n}} . This implies the following property of the Growth function. For every family H {\displaystyle H} there are two cases: The exponential case: Growth ( H , m ) = 2 m {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)=2^{m}} identically. The polynomial case: Growth ( H , m ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)} is majorized by Comp ( n , m ) ≤ m n + 1 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Comp} (n,m)\leq m^{n}+1} , where n {\displaystyle n} is the smallest integer for which Growth ( H , n ) < 2 n {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,n)<2^{n}} . == Other properties == === Trivial upper bound === For any finite H {\displaystyle H} : Growth ( H , m ) ≤ | H | {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)\leq |H|} since for every C {\displaystyle C} , the number of elements in H ∩ C {\displaystyle H\cap C} is at most | H | {\displaystyle |H|} . Therefore, the growth function is mainly interesting when H {\displaystyle H} is infinite. === Exponential upper bound === For any nonempty H {\displaystyle H} : Growth ( H , m ) ≤ 2 m {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)\leq 2^{m}} I.e, the growth function has an exponential upper-bound. We say that a set-family H {\displaystyle H} shatters a set C {\displaystyle C} if their intersection contains all possible subsets of C {\displaystyle C} , i.e. H ∩ C = 2 C {\displaystyle H\cap C=2^{C}} . If H {\displaystyle H} shatters C {\displaystyle C} of size m {\displaystyle m} , then Growth ( H , C ) = 2 m {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,C)=2^{m}} , which is the upper bound. === Cartesian intersection === Define the Cartesian intersection of two set-families as: H 1 ⨂ H 2 := { h 1 ∩ h 2 ∣ h 1 ∈ H 1 , h 2 ∈ H 2 } {\displaystyle H_{1}\bigotimes H_{2}:=\{h_{1}\cap h_{2}\mid h_{1}\in H_{1},h_{2}\in H_{2}\}} . Then: Growth ( H 1 ⨂ H 2 , m ) ≤ Growth ( H 1 , m ) ⋅ Growth ( H 2 , m ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H_{1}\bigotimes H_{2},m)\leq \operatorname {Growth} (H_{1},m)\cdot \operatorname {Growth} (H_{2},m)} === Union === For every two set-families: Growth ( H 1 ∪ H 2 , m ) ≤ Growth ( H 1 , m ) + Growth ( H 2 , m ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H_{1}\cup H_{2},m)\leq \operatorname {Growth} (H_{1},m)+\operatorname {Growth} (H_{2},m)} === VC dimension === The VC dimension of H {\displaystyle H} is defined according to these two cases: In the polynomial case, VCDim ( H ) = n − 1 {\displaystyle \operatorname {VCDim} (H)=n-1} = the largest integer d {\displaystyle d} for which Growth ( H , d ) = 2 d {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,d)=2^{d}} . In the exponential case VCDim ( H ) = ∞ {\displaystyle \operatorname {VCDim} (H)=\infty } . So VCDim ( H ) ≥ d {\displaystyle \operatorname {VCDim} (H)\geq d} if-and-only-if Growth ( H , d ) = 2 d {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,d)=2^{d}} . The growth function can be regarded as a refinement of the concept of VC dimension. The VC dimension only tells us whether Growth ( H , d ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,d)} is equal to or smaller than 2 d {\displaystyle 2^{d}} , while the growth function tells us exactly how Growth ( H , m ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)} changes as a function of m {\displaystyle m} . Another connection between the growth function and the VC dimension is given by the Sauer–Shelah lemma: If VCDim ( H ) = d {\displaystyle \operatorname {VCDim} (H)=d} , then: for all m {\displaystyle m} : Growth ( H , m ) ≤ ∑ i = 0 d ( m i ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)\leq \sum _{i=0}^{d}{m \choose i}} In particular, for all m > d + 1 {\displaystyle m>d+1} : Growth ( H , m ) ≤ ( e m / d ) d = O ( m d ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Growth} (H,m)\leq (
ImageNets
ImageNets is an open source framework for rapid prototyping of machine vision algorithms, developed by the Institute of Automation. == Description == ImageNets is an open source and platform independent (Windows & Linux) framework for rapid prototyping of machine vision algorithms. With the GUI ImageNet Designer, no programming knowledge is required to perform operations on images. A configured ImageNet can be loaded and executed from C++ code without the need for loading the ImageNet Designer GUI to achieve higher execution performance. == History == ImageNets was developed by the Institute of Automation, University of Bremen, Germany. The software was first publicly released in 2010. Originally, ImageNets was developed for the Care-Providing Robot FRIEND but it can be used for a wide range of computer vision applications.
Out-of-bag error
Out-of-bag (OOB) error, also called out-of-bag estimate, is a method of measuring the prediction error of random forests, boosted decision trees, and other machine learning models utilizing bootstrap aggregating (bagging). Bagging uses subsampling with replacement to create training samples for the model to learn from. OOB error is the mean prediction error on each training sample xi, using only the trees that did not have xi in their bootstrap sample. Bootstrap aggregating allows one to define an out-of-bag estimate of the prediction performance improvement by evaluating predictions on those observations that were not used in the building of the next base learner. == Out-of-bag dataset == When bootstrap aggregating is performed, two independent sets are created. One set, the bootstrap sample, is the data chosen to be "in-the-bag" by sampling with replacement. The out-of-bag set is all data not chosen in the sampling process. When this process is repeated, such as when building a random forest, many bootstrap samples and OOB sets are created. The OOB sets can be aggregated into one dataset, but each sample is only considered out-of-bag for the trees that do not include it in their bootstrap sample. The picture below shows that for each bag sampled, the data is separated into two groups. This example shows how bagging could be used in the context of diagnosing disease. A set of patients are the original dataset, but each model is trained only by the patients in its bag. The patients in each out-of-bag set can be used to test their respective models. The test would consider whether the model can accurately determine if the patient has the disease. == Calculating out-of-bag error == Since each out-of-bag set is not used to train the model, it is a good test for the performance of the model. The specific calculation of OOB error depends on the implementation of the model, but a general calculation is as follows. Find all models (or trees, in the case of a random forest) that are not trained by the OOB instance. Take the majority vote of these models' result for the OOB instance, compared to the true value of the OOB instance. Compile the OOB error for all instances in the OOB dataset. The bagging process can be customized to fit the needs of a model. To ensure an accurate model, the bootstrap training sample size should be close to that of the original set. Also, the number of iterations (trees) of the model (forest) should be considered to find the true OOB error. The OOB error will stabilize over many iterations so starting with a high number of iterations is a good idea. Shown in the example to the right, the OOB error can be found using the method above once the forest is set up. == Comparison to cross-validation == Out-of-bag error and cross-validation (CV) are different methods of measuring the error estimate of a machine learning model. Over many iterations, the two methods should produce a very similar error estimate. That is, once the OOB error stabilizes, it will converge to the cross-validation (specifically leave-one-out cross-validation) error. The advantage of the OOB method is that it requires less computation and allows one to test the model as it is being trained. == Accuracy and Consistency == Out-of-bag error is used frequently for error estimation within random forests but with the conclusion of a study done by Silke Janitza and Roman Hornung, out-of-bag error has shown to overestimate in settings that include an equal number of observations from all response classes (balanced samples), small sample sizes, a large number of predictor variables, small correlation between predictors, and weak effects.
Limnu
Limnu was an online whiteboarding app founded in 2015 by David DeBry and David Hart. It allowed users to draw on virtual whiteboards and invite others by e-mail or by sharing a link. Invitees see any changes to the board in real time and, if allowed by the owner of the board, can also draw on the board. The service was accessible through a web application in desktop and mobile web browsers, as well as through an iOS application. It was headquartered in San Mateo, California. == History == In 2018, ZipSocket, a maker of online meeting software acquired Limnu. == Staff Directory == Andrew Kunz - CEO & Founder of ZipSocket Jenny Rice - Product Manager Max Requenes - Software Engineer Henry Maguire - Machine Learning Engineer
Randomized weighted majority algorithm
The randomized weighted majority algorithm is an algorithm in machine learning theory for aggregating expert predictions to a series of decision problems. It is a simple and effective method based on weighted voting which improves on the mistake bound of the deterministic weighted majority algorithm. In fact, in the limit, its prediction rate can be arbitrarily close to that of the best-predicting expert. == Example == Imagine that every morning before the stock market opens, we get a prediction from each of our "experts" about whether the stock market will go up or down. Our goal is to somehow combine this set of predictions into a single prediction that we then use to make a buy or sell decision for the day. The principal challenge is that we do not know which experts will give better or worse predictions. The RWMA gives us a way to do this combination such that our prediction record will be nearly as good as that of the single expert which, in hindsight, gave the most accurate predictions. == Motivation == In machine learning, the weighted majority algorithm (WMA) is a deterministic meta-learning algorithm for aggregating expert predictions. In pseudocode, the WMA is as follows: initialize all experts to weight 1 for each round: add each expert's weight to the option they predicted predict the option with the largest weighted sum multiply the weights of all experts who predicted wrongly by 1 2 {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}} Suppose there are n {\displaystyle n} experts and the best expert makes m {\displaystyle m} mistakes. Then, the weighted majority algorithm (WMA) makes at most 2.4 ( log 2 n + m ) {\displaystyle 2.4(\log _{2}n+m)} mistakes. This bound is highly problematic in the case of highly error-prone experts. Suppose, for example, the best expert makes a mistake 20% of the time; that is, in N = 100 {\displaystyle N=100} rounds using n = 10 {\displaystyle n=10} experts, the best expert makes m = 20 {\displaystyle m=20} mistakes. Then, the weighted majority algorithm only guarantees an upper bound of 2.4 ( log 2 10 + 20 ) ≈ 56 {\displaystyle 2.4(\log _{2}10+20)\approx 56} mistakes. As this is a known limitation of the weighted majority algorithm, various strategies have been explored in order to improve the dependence on m {\displaystyle m} . In particular, we can do better by introducing randomization. Drawing inspiration from the Multiplicative Weights Update Method algorithm, we will probabilistically make predictions based on how the experts have performed in the past. Similarly to the WMA, every time an expert makes a wrong prediction, we will decrement their weight. Mirroring the MWUM, we will then use the weights to make a probability distribution over the actions and draw our action from this distribution (instead of deterministically picking the majority vote as the WMA does). == Randomized weighted majority algorithm (RWMA) == The randomized weighted majority algorithm is an attempt to improve the dependence of the mistake bound of the WMA on m {\displaystyle m} . Instead of predicting based on majority vote, the weights, are used as probabilities for choosing the experts in each round and are updated over time (hence the name randomized weighted majority). Precisely, if w i {\displaystyle w_{i}} is the weight of expert i {\displaystyle i} , let W = ∑ i w i {\displaystyle W=\sum _{i}w_{i}} . We will follow expert i {\displaystyle i} with probability w i W {\displaystyle {\frac {w_{i}}{W}}} . This results in the following algorithm: initialize all experts to weight 1. for each round: add all experts' weights together to obtain the total weight W {\displaystyle W} choose expert i {\displaystyle i} randomly with probability w i W {\displaystyle {\frac {w_{i}}{W}}} predict as the chosen expert predicts multiply the weights of all experts who predicted wrongly by β {\displaystyle \beta } The goal is to bound the worst-case expected number of mistakes, assuming that the adversary has to select one of the answers as correct before we make our coin toss. This is a reasonable assumption in, for instance, the stock market example provided above: the variance of a stock price should not depend on the opinions of experts that influence private buy or sell decisions, so we can treat the price change as if it was decided before the experts gave their recommendations for the day. The randomized algorithm is better in the worst case than the deterministic algorithm (weighted majority algorithm): in the latter, the worst case was when the weights were split 50/50. But in the randomized version, since the weights are used as probabilities, there would still be a 50/50 chance of getting it right. In addition, generalizing to multiplying the weights of the incorrect experts by β < 1 {\displaystyle \beta <1} instead of strictly 1 2 {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}} allows us to trade off between dependence on m {\displaystyle m} and log 2 n {\displaystyle \log _{2}n} . This trade-off will be quantified in the analysis section. == Analysis == Let W t {\displaystyle W_{t}} denote the total weight of all experts at round t {\displaystyle t} . Also let F t {\displaystyle F_{t}} denote the fraction of weight placed on experts which predict the wrong answer at round t {\displaystyle t} . Finally, let N {\displaystyle N} be the total number of rounds in the process. By definition, F t {\displaystyle F_{t}} is the probability that the algorithm makes a mistake on round t {\displaystyle t} . It follows from the linearity of expectation that if M {\displaystyle M} denotes the total number of mistakes made during the entire process, E [ M ] = ∑ t = 1 N F t {\displaystyle E[M]=\sum _{t=1}^{N}F_{t}} . After round t {\displaystyle t} , the total weight is decreased by ( 1 − β ) F t W t {\displaystyle \ (1-\beta )F_{t}W_{t}} , since all weights corresponding to a wrong answer are multiplied by β < 1 {\displaystyle \ \beta <1} . It then follows that W t + 1 = W t ( 1 − ( 1 − β ) F t ) {\displaystyle W_{t+1}=W_{t}(1-(1-\beta )F_{t})} . By telescoping, since W 1 = n {\displaystyle W_{1}=n} , it follows that the total weight after the process concludes is On the other hand, suppose that m {\displaystyle \ m} is the number of mistakes made by the best-performing expert. At the end, this expert has weight β m {\displaystyle \ \beta ^{m}} . It follows, then, that the total weight is at least this much; in other words, W ≥ β m {\displaystyle \ W\geq \beta ^{m}} . This inequality and the above result imply Taking the natural logarithm of both sides yields Now, the Taylor series of the natural logarithm is In particular, it follows that ln ( 1 − ( 1 − β ) F t ) < − ( 1 − β ) F t {\displaystyle \ \ln(1-(1-\beta )F_{t})<-(1-\beta )F_{t}} . Thus, Recalling that E [ M ] = ∑ t = 1 N F t {\displaystyle E[M]=\sum _{t=1}^{N}F_{t}} and rearranging, it follows that Now, as β → 1 {\displaystyle \beta \to 1} from below, the first constant tends to 1 {\displaystyle 1} ; however, the second constant tends to + ∞ {\displaystyle +\infty } . To quantify this tradeoff, define ε = 1 − β {\displaystyle \varepsilon =1-\beta } to be the penalty associated with getting a prediction wrong. Then, again applying the Taylor series of the natural logarithm, It then follows that the mistake bound, for small ε {\displaystyle \varepsilon } , can be written in the form ( 1 + ϵ 2 + O ( ε 2 ) ) m + ϵ − 1 ln ( n ) {\displaystyle \ \left(1+{\frac {\epsilon }{2}}+O(\varepsilon ^{2})\right)m+\epsilon ^{-1}\ln(n)} . In English, the less that we penalize experts for their mistakes, the more that additional experts will lead to initial mistakes but the closer we get to capturing the predictive accuracy of the best expert as time goes on. In particular, given a sufficiently low value of ε {\displaystyle \varepsilon } and enough rounds, the randomized weighted majority algorithm can get arbitrarily close to the correct prediction rate of the best expert. In particular, as long as m {\displaystyle m} is sufficiently large compared to ln ( n ) {\displaystyle \ln(n)} (so that their ratio is sufficiently small), we can assign we can obtain an upper bound on the number of mistakes equal to This implies that the "regret bound" on the algorithm (that is, how much worse it performs than the best expert) is sublinear, at O ( m ln ( n ) ) {\displaystyle O({\sqrt {m\ln(n)}})} . == Revisiting the motivation == Recall that the motivation for the randomized weighted majority algorithm was given by an example where the best expert makes a mistake 20% of the time. Precisely, in N = 100 {\displaystyle N=100} rounds, with n = 10 {\displaystyle n=10} experts, where the best expert makes m = 20 {\displaystyle m=20} mistakes, the deterministic weighted majority algorithm only guarantees an upper bound of 2.4 ( log 2 10 + 20 ) ≈ 56 {\displaystyle 2.4(\log _{2}10+20)\approx 56} . By the analysis above, it follows that minimizing the number of worst-case expected mistakes is equivalent to minimizing the fun